Explore the soft package power battery capacity at the end of 2018

China has become one of the fastest growing and most active regions in the world for lithium batteries. According to the statistics of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the output value of lithium batteries in China in 2016 was 111.5 billion Yuan, an increase of nearly 6 times compared with 2011, and the compound annual growth rate reached 32%. While the capacity of the downstream market continues to expand, its consumption structure is also changing.

Power battery has become the largest lithium-ion batteries application field. The lithium battery has three main areas of application: 3 c consumer electronics, power battery and energy storage battery. The 3 c consumer electronics market increasingly mature, growth is slowing, and power battery needs with the outbreak of the new energy vehicles quickly.2016 power battery market share reached 53%, more than 3 c as lithium battery demand side, the largest accounted for further to about 62% in 2017, the demand of the lithium battery focus has shifted from 3 c to power market.

Thanks to constant penetration in the field of consumer electronics, in our country soft package lithium-ion batteries development is rapid, annual compound growth rate of 50.3% between 2011 and 2016.At the same time, the soft package battery in the permeability of the lithium battery industry as a whole is also rising.2013 domestic soft package battery market share of more than 40%, more than cylindrical and square cells. Since 2014, soft package cell permeability declined, mainly by the domestic electric car industry, the porch, BYD and other power battery enterprises large-scale expansion of the influence of the square cell line.

In recent years, countries increasingly deeply aware of the gravity of the energy and environmental problems, are introduced to ban fuel vehicle timetable, the ministry also carried out related research in our country, and made it clear to the timetable for fuel car sales, for the domestic policy of the development of new energy vehicles to lay the tone. "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in" national strategic emerging industry development planning ", etc are put forward in the policy implementation in 2020 when the new energy automobile production and sales of more than 2 million vehicles, the total volume of more than 5 million goals. In the long run, new energy vehicles to replace fuel car boarded the stage of history is the trend of The Times, the various auto enterprises have also layout of new energy vehicles.

Driven by policies and markets, global new energy vehicles are developing rapidly. According to the plans of various manufacturers, the global new energy vehicle production will reach 12 million in 2020, corresponding to the global demand for power of 360GWh. The development of new energy vehicles in China is particularly impressive. From the production of less than 10,000 vehicles in 2011 to the production of 794,000 in 2017, the compound annual growth rate is 113.8%. In 2017, the new energy vehicle market accounted for 2.7%, an increase of 0.9 percentage point year-on-year.

With the rapid growth of the new energy vehicles, power battery ushers in huge opportunities for development. Global power lithium battery production in 2017 of 2017 GWH, year-on-year growth of 52%;Of our country's power lithium battery accounted for nearly two-thirds, 44.5 GWH, than 1.5 2013 GWH up nearly 30 times, compound growth rate of 133%.Power battery has replaced the 3 c digital batteries, lithium battery market development of the main driving force.

The mainstream trend of passenger car ternary battery is established, and the soft bag is more suitable for ternary battery. New energy vehicles can be divided into passenger cars, passenger cars and special vehicles according to their use. Different models should choose different types of batteries suitable for their operation. China's mainstream cathode materials are divided into two camps: lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. lithium iron phosphate has high thermal stability and safety, and can meet the primary requirements for safety performance in the public transportation field. In the passenger vehicle field, the ternary lithium battery has high energy density and strong endurance, which is more in line with consumers. Requirements have become the current mainstream development direction. Many giants of lithium iron phosphate cars, such as BYD and BAIC, have announced that they will switch to the ternary battery route in the future. In terms of packaging selection, square batteries have poor safety performance and are more used in lithium iron phosphate systems. Soft pack batteries have better safety performance and longer cycle life, and are more widely used in ternary materials. In 2017, the installed capacity of soft-packed power batteries for new energy passenger vehicles increased by 34.0% year-on-year, while the installed capacity of soft-packed batteries for passenger cars decreased by 1.1% year-on-year.

The rapid development of passenger car ternary power battery provides a broad market prospect for aluminum plastic film. As the main body of government procurement and public transportation demonstration operation, new energy buses have developed rapidly in the past five years compared with other new energy vehicles. In the past two years, due to the adjustment of the over-subsidy policy, sales volume has been greatly affected, and the increase in new energy vehicles has gradually shifted to passenger cars. In 2017, the proportion of sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased from 66% to 74%, while the proportion of passenger cars dropped to 26%. With the heavy volume of passenger cars, the ternary battery has developed rapidly. In 2017, the loading of ternary materials was 10.46 GWh for all types of battery installations, while the loading of lithium iron phosphate was only 2.99 GWh. Since the ternary battery adopts the flexible packaging route, the development of the soft pack battery and the ternary battery complement each other, and the rapid development of the passenger vehicle ternary power battery provides a broad market prospect for the aluminum plastic film. In the future, with the decline in the production cost of aluminum plastic film, flexible packaging may be used more in the lithium iron phosphate system to open up new markets.

The soft pack battery has good safety performance and high energy density, and has been highly recognized by international auto companies. High-end models such as the Chevrolet Volt, Bolt, Nissan Leaf, and Ford (Focus, Fusion) have adopted the soft pack battery technology route. AESC and LG Chem, among the four giants of international power battery suppliers, also focus on soft pack batteries. Due to the influence of Tesla's manufacturing process and the domestic lithium iron phosphate battery industry, domestic new energy passenger cars have traditionally favored round and square batteries. As of 2016, the penetration rate of soft pack batteries in power is only about 10%.

The policy has higher and higher requirements on endurance and energy density, which makes high-energy batteries (such as ternary batteries) and lightweight batteries (such as soft-pack batteries) more and more important to domestic car companies. From the subsidy policy introduced by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology at the end of 2016, the policy began to make technical requirements for endurance capacity and energy density, and linked the battery unit subsidy amount and energy density. In the latest 2018 subsidy policy, the minimum cruising range is adjusted from 100 km in 2017 to 150 km. The minimum energy density requirement is adjusted from 90Wh/kg in 2017 to 105Wh/kg, and the subsidy factor has also been adjusted significantly.

Under the stimulation of high energy density demand, the demand for soft-pack lithium batteries continues to strengthen. At present, domestic mainstream electric passenger car companies Beiqi, SAIC, Zotye, etc. have begun to try soft-packed batteries. In 2017, four of the top six car manufacturers used soft-pack batteries in some or all of the models. In order to meet the market demand and seize the opportunities, domestic power battery companies have also laid out soft pack batteries. Four of the top 10 power battery manufacturers in China have soft-package batteries, of which Fugen Technology and Guoneng Battery are mainly used to produce soft-pack batteries. Well-known battery manufacturers such as Fu Neng Technology, Shanghai Ka Nai, Meng Shi Technology, Tianjin Jie Wei, etc. have announced a 5-10GWh expansion plan, 9 mainstream soft pack battery companies at the end of 2017 soft pack battery capacity reached 27GWh. As more battery manufacturers participate in the production of soft-pack batteries, the total capacity of soft-pack power batteries will reach 38GWh at the end of 2018. In addition, domestic power battery giant CATL is developing soft pack batteries. After the acquisition of AESC, Jinshajiang will build a production base in Zhenjiang. In the future, driven by leading enterprises, soft pack batteries will become more and more new energy vehicles and power battery manufacturers. The choice to drive the expansion of the aluminum plastic film market.

Soft pack batteries have matured in the 3C consumer electronics field. In the 3C consumer electronics market, thanks to the development trend of intelligent, lightweight and miniaturized digital products, soft-package batteries with flexible design and high energy density have been widely used in consumer electronic products such as smart phones and tablet PCs. The speed is far above average. Apple, Sony, Huawei, Xiaomi and other well-known consumer electronics brands have adopted soft pack batteries. The penetration rate of soft pack batteries in China's 3C field is rising. The ratio of soft pack digital battery production value to total digital battery output has increased from 11% in 2011 to 66% in 2016. The growth rate of 3C consumer electronics market has slowed down, but the stock market is still impressive. In recent years, with the saturation and maturity of the market, the growth rate of global smartphones and tablet PCs has slowed down, and there has been negative growth in 2017. The Chinese market is no exception. Shipments of smartphones and tablets fell by 3% and 11.7% in the first quarter of 2018, respectively. The proportion of digital lithium batteries in the entire lithium battery industry has also gradually declined, and the growth rate in the future is limited. Considering the slowdown in the growth rate of consumer electronics and the high penetration rate of soft pack batteries in the consumer sector, the 3C market is no longer the main driver for the development of soft pack batteries. However, because the amount of aluminum plastic film per unit capacity of 3C battery is significantly higher than that of power battery, the market for digital soft package is still considerable. It is expected that 3C consumer demand will support the steady growth of soft pack batteries and aluminum plastic film in the next few years.

Energy storage technology is the important way to meet the needs of large-scale renewable energy access, and distributed energy system, the electric car industry important constituent, is the key to the further development of new energy industry in the future. With the popularity of energy storage system in the terminal application field and from the construction of network infrastructure, global energy storage industry has been fully developed. By the end of 2017, the world has been put into operation energy storage projects the cumulative size of 175.4 GW, up 3.9% from a year earlier, maintain steady growth.

Existing energy storage system according to the technology can be divided into physical energy storage (pumping energy storage and flywheel energy storage, etc.), chemical energy storage (lead-acid batteries, sodium sulfur batteries, lithium ion battery, etc.) and magnetic energy storage (superconducting magnetic energy storage, super capacitor energy storage, etc.) three categories. Different types of energy storage technology's stage of development and application, physical energy storage is the most mature, the lowest cost, using the largest energy storage, chemical energy storage is the most widely application scope, the biggest development potential.

Electrochemical energy storage technology with short response time, large energy density, flexibility, and low maintenance cost, has been developing rapidly in recent years.Global new electrochemical energy storage project put into operation in 2017 size 914.1 GW, up 23% from a year earlier, the cumulative size 2926.6 GW, has become a pumped storage outside the main form of energy storage. Electrochemical energy storage capacity in the short term, global scale also is expected to maintain rapid growth.

Lithium battery occupies absolute advantage in all kinds of electrochemical energy storage technology. Electrochemical energy storage and including lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries, sodium sulfur batteries, all vanadium flow batteries, etc. The lithium battery with long cycle life, high energy efficiency, green environmental protection and other characteristics, has absolute advantage in all kinds of electrochemical energy storage technology. From a global electrochemical energy storage capacity, lithium battery has installed proportion is the largest, more than 75%.In 2017, the size of new power occupy the absolute leading position, accounted for 93%.

The energy storage industry started late in China and has not yet erupted on a large scale, but the market potential is huge. In 2017, the installed capacity of domestic energy storage projects was 28.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 18.9%, far exceeding the global growth rate. In order to support the development of the energy storage industry, the state has successively issued a series of policies. In October 2017, the Ministry of Development and Reform Commission and other five ministries jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Energy Storage Technology and Industrial Development", and for the first time, strategic deployment of the energy storage industry at the national level. The national energy storage support policies have been launched one after another. Combined with the driving force brought by the integration of power batteries and energy storage batteries, China's energy storage market is expected to start quickly.

From 2000 to 2017, the cumulative operation scale of China's electrochemical energy storage is nearly 390MW, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to be close to 70% from 2016 to 2020. Among them, lithium battery storage accounts for 66% of the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage, and is the most important form of electrochemical energy storage. In 2017, China's lithium battery energy storage market output was about 3.5GWh, up 13% year-on-year; the output value reached 5.5 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year. The reduction in the manufacturing cost of lithium batteries will further increase the competitiveness of lithium battery storage compared to other energy storage technologies, and the penetration rate in the field of energy storage will gradually increase in the future. Combined with the background of the development of the energy storage market, the lithium battery energy storage market is expected to become the main driving force for the future lithium battery market. It is estimated that China's energy storage lithium battery industry will enter a growth period, the compound growth rate will exceed 15% in the next five years, and the market development is good.

The soft-pack lithium battery has high energy density, good safety performance, and gradually develops toward high-rate applications, which can better meet the requirements of energy storage batteries, and also has growth potential in the field of energy storage. For the time being, Kelu Electronics has partnered with LG Chem to use soft-pack lithium batteries for energy storage. It is expected that the penetration rate of soft pack batteries in energy storage will continue to rise in the future.

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