The consumer market of lithium-ion battery

In all kinds of lithium-ion batteries application market in the downstream, there is no doubt that the increasing of electric vehicles mainly in electric cars is one of the most obvious. Market is saturated in smartphone consumer electronics field. As consumer electronics market enter into the competition of storage, consumer lithium-ion battery may grow slowly.

Since the beginning of the lithium battery, the market demand of strong growth, nickel cadmium battery, nickel metal hydride batteries, and launched the public eye. Lithium ion counter attack, the most important reason is occupied with smart phones, digital cameras, tablets, such as consumer electronics market.

According to industry research institute, according to data in 2011, the global smartphone shipments is only 491 million units; By 2016, the global smartphone sales has up to 1.47 billion units. The rapid popularity of smartphones, expands the demand for lithium-ion batteries.

However, smartphone after rapid growth over the years, the market is close to saturation, only 2% year-on-year growth in 2016, well below the 10.4% growth in 2015.Now in addition to India, southeast Asia and other countries growth is slowing.

Digital cameras, tablets, consumer electronics such as the same, after the initial surge, year-on-year growth in the gradual slowdown. Instead, electric vehicles, energy storage and other emerging markets.

New energy cars, for example, according to the report, according to data from 2016, China's new energy vehicles produced 517000 vehicles, up 51.7% from a year earlier. Among them, the most widely used is lithium battery. Benefit from the rapid development of new energy vehicles, lithium battery market to maintain high growth.

Grid storage, household energy storage, industrial storage energy storage market, it is also one of the main sources of lithium battery momentum. So, the lithium battery demand is from consumer electronics to electric vehicles, energy storage, and other fields.

Lithium battery can grow continuously, it is a price advantage, after the mass production has been a sharp drop in price;2 it is cost-effective, because of strong demand, stimulate the increase of lithium battery performance.

In general, as the global consumer electronics market saturation, proportion will gradually decline in demand for lithium batteries. The report predicts that by 2020, consumer demand for lithium battery than to fall to 30.5%. Other emerging market demand than would sharply, especially in electric vehicle and energy storage market.

Consumer growth is slowing, consumer could usher in a reshuffle, lithium-ion batteries, poor quality of some products, low factor of safety of elimination, technology accumulation, production scale advantage of enterprises is expected to get a new opportunity.

Use lithium battery 3 c consumer electronics products mainly include mobile phone, notebook computer, tablet computer and camera, etc., among them, cell phones and microcomputer, including laptop and tablet, for the biggest product usage.3 c consumer products market has been basically mature, demand will not have larger fluctuation of lithium battery products. According to the data, the global smartphone shipments in 2016 is expected to year-on-year growth of 5.7%, and predict the trend of the global smartphone shipments single-digit growth will be continued until 2020, analysis is mainly due to the China mobile phone market has been the transition from a few years ago the rapid growth of emerging markets to lead to a mature market. PC has lasted for five years, by contrast, the decline in sales, the trend is expected to last until 2019.

, according to data from China's mobile phone production has increased from 1.13 billion in 2011 to 2015 in 1.81 billion, the compound growth rate of 12.50%, a microcomputer production nearly five years to maintain basic level of around 340 million units per year. Is expected in 2020, China's mobile phone production will reach 2.71 billion units, compound growth rate of 8.41%. Due to the domestic microcomputer market has matured, and temporarily no big new manufacturer and policy influence, is expected to 2020 microcomputer output 400 million units.

Expected market demand for lithium-ion batteries in the next five years will continue to maintain sustained growth, is expected to rise from 2016 GWh 66.20 to 185.8 in 2020 GWh, compound growth rate of 29.43%, 5 years accumulative total demand will reach 542.14 GWh.

China energy storage net news: for the most main power lithium battery companies made a comparison and analysis, focusing on the listed companies.

1.1.1 some main lithium-ion electricity companies

NO. 1 BYD, vehicle + li-ion battery

Set up time: 2006

Byd's power battery business mainly in Huizhou and Shenzhen two base, main products are Lithium iron phosphate power battery. The effective capacity of 4.5 Gwh, including 1 Gwh Huizhou, Shenzhen Kengzi Gwh 3.5, is expected by the end of 2015, the overall production capacity will reach 6 Gwh, Gwh will expand to 10, 2016.Byd's power battery for BYD for private use only. In the first half of 2015, BYD, power battery business income of about 3 billion yuan.

Why we love it: BYD is absolutely leading domestic power battery, relying on the group's new energy automotive business, its power battery business in terms of scale well ahead of the competition. From the technical system, always adhere to the technical route of BYD lithium iron phosphate in the near future in the next generation of models and the choice of the ternary material battery, there is reason to believe that whatever the technical route, BYD, relying on its battery production experience for many years can the battery will do a good job. On the industrial chain, BYD, adhere to the whole industrial chain strategy, from material to battery, motor, electric control to the vehicle, BYD choose to do, closed-loop development pattern of industrial chain and only BYD can play such a size company.

NO. 2 CATL -- Japan and South Korea

Set up time: 2011 headquarters: Fujian Ningde

CATL based on ATL, headquarters is located in Ningde, Fujian province, at the same time have production base in Qinghai, the total capacity is 1.4 Gwh, major customers include Beijing auto, brilliance BMW, geely, faw, CSR times, Xiamen jingling, Zhengzhou Yutong, Zhong tong coach and so on. In 2014, the CATL power battery sales income of about 860 million yuan, in the first half of 2015, power battery sales income of about 950 million yuan.

Why we love it: as Japan and South Korea power battery enterprise to mark only one competitor, domestic CATL comprehensive competitiveness in the field of power battery is the leading at home, although, at present, on the scale of power battery cannot ranking industry leader, but its battery technology and quality first recognized by the BMW international luxury brands, is the first and the only domestic an enterprise to international depot supporting power battery. CATL, moreover, in the layout of the industrial chain is also quite perfect, from material (from Dongguan, Jiang Xizhi Chen, TNS) to the battery pack (batteries, BMS, battery system) to the recycling application states general (Guangdong), even some involvement in the field of lithium electricity equipment. Low-key, with ATL CATL promotion and propaganda in the enterprise is also spare no effort, and it will carry out a series of capital operation will be the future lithium electricity industry in China the big things.

Ningde era fixed takes out from inside the revenue of 5% a year as a research and development spending, Dr Company quantity reach more than 120 people (including Dr Returning more than 20), a master's degree in personnel more than 900 people. By 2015, Ningde technology patent number of times the current battery is as high as 335,

NO. 3 GUOXUAN - listed company, special supported by nation

Set up time: 2005 headquarters: Anhui Hefei

Hefei countries hin high-tech power energy co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "the porch") was founded in 2005, is in the country of the Zhuhai hin trade co., ltd. and Hefei hin marketing planning co., LTD. Is established. Its main products are lithium iron phosphate power battery.

The porch tech center based in Hefei, Anhui in Kunshan, Nanjing and Wuhan are also building new production base. Industry chain covers, batteries, lithium iron phosphate battery anode materials production, the BMS and PACK. Effective capacity 1.5 Gwh hin tech centers now, mainly for rectangular and cylindrical batteries, power batteries. The porch tech center's main customers include Nanjing jingling, Jianhua automobile, nk buses, zoom lion, Shanghai shen, Dongfeng motor, Hebei royal home. In the first half of 2015, the porch high-tech power battery operating income of about 750 million yuan.

Why we love it: 2015 backdoor dongyuan appliances listed after the xuan tech centers become the a-share listed companies the purest power battery mark, new energy vehicles in the heat of the capital market also let hin high-tech market value as high as 25 billion yuan. Look from the customer, the porch tech center is given priority to with commercial vehicles, mainly in nk and Jianhua, passenger car field to less, the future competitiveness of ascension also looks at it as in the field of passenger cars. In the case of other power battery enterprises are small profit, the porch tech center to maintain a high gross profit margin, also be lithium power battery industry a "wonderful work".

Research and development staff of more than 461.The Po number to recognize more than 50%. R&d spending to about 5% of sales.

According to finally determine the equity incentive plan, the company to more than 160 granted restricted stock incentive object number more than 1400 shares, the incentives are for the company to implement this plan in the company's directors, senior management personnel, as well as the middle management and the core technology (business), etc.

So far, the company accumulated more than five hundred to apply for a patent, nearly three hundred authorized patents, patent results cover the preparation of the anode materials and preparation technology of cells, group technology, screening, PACK and the design of raw materials during the process of preparation and application of battery

No. 4: Universal A123 Systems Co., LTD

Set up time: 2011 headquarters: Hangzhou in Zhejiang province

Zhejiang wanxiang million can power battery co., LTD is with the United States by wanxiang group Ener1Inc. In July 2011 investment to set up sino-foreign joint venture enterprise, registered capital of USD 120 million, main business for the lithium ion battery and lithium ion battery system assembled by the power battery design, service and technology upgrading. Universal million to Ener1 power patented technology from the us company, using the Ener1 automatic battery assembly technology.

Universal A123 systems co., LTD is in universal acquisition A123, reconsolidation A123 and universal electric power battery business and company, is currently the wanxiang group in new power battery business platform. Universal A123 adopts flexible packaging and ternary lithium iron phosphate material technical route, the effective capacity of about 1 GWH. Major customers for saic, chery automobile, Guangzhou automobile group, Nanjing jingling, Xiamen jinlong, Yutong bus, Shanghai shen, CSR times, etc. In the first half of 2015, universal power battery business income is about 350 million yuan.

Why we love it: in 2015, business restructuring after the universal A123 there are still many problems to be solved, integration, enterprise culture integration is personnel need a new universal A123 solution. But as motive power sources of domestic soft package of leading enterprises, universal power battery have a certain competitiveness in the technology and quality. More importantly, universal depends on group in the layout of the industrial chain is also worthy of the industry is looking forward to, in Guangzhou bliss, downstream in gac, and through the universal money-is-coming pine is in Tianjin. Believe that the universal electric vehicles and power battery business profit, step by step into the listed company is universal money-is-coming sooner or later.

NO. 5 LISHEN -- is strong

Set up time: 1997 headquarters: Tianjin

Tianjin lishen for China electronics technology group subsidiary, its power battery production base is located in Tianjin, and in Wuhan, Qingdao and other places to build new power battery production base. Its power battery lithium iron phosphate products cover square and rectangular and cylindrical columns, three yuan, the current capacity of about 1 GWH effectively, the main customers include jianghuai, geely, faw, Dongfeng motor, Nanjing jinlong, Xiamen jinlong, Zhong tong coach, carried out in Tianjin, etc. In the first half of 2015, its power battery business income is about 570 million yuan.

Why we love it: in 2015, is a history of lishen is extremely important for a year, large shareholders cnooc, China electronics technology group (CECT) to become the controlling shareholder lishen. After the owners of lishen battery still didn't get rid of the mechanism of state-owned enterprises, relative to the competitors, lishen will always slow step. But as leading enterprises of lithium ion battery, lishen on technologies and products still have quite competitive, and 2015 through large-scale supply jianghuai cylindrical woti-meeting momentum three yuan 18650 batteries, and recent rumors lishen in a series of capital operation, only from the mechanism reform, god can further improve its competitiveness.

NO. 6 VOLT - are solid red fire mergers and acquisitions

Set up time: 2002 headquarters: Guangdong Shenzhen

Shenzhen Walter battery co., LTD., founded in 2002.Company existing staff 1300 people, research and development staff of more than 300 people, is now producing more than 32650 type 5 ah batteries, 220000, the new factory planning capacity for Nissan 32650 type 5 ah batteries, 500000, is the earliest successful research and development of new energy vehicle power battery, lithium iron phosphate and take the lead to achieve the scale of production and batch application of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Company's main power battery cooperation customer is Wuzhou dragon, dragon, Yangzhou yaxing, Zhengzhou haima, zoom lion, etc.

NO. 7 CATIC - deep background

Set up time: 2009 headquarters: henan Luoyang

Chinaspecial lithium electricity production base is located in Luoyang, the overall effective capacity about 2 GWH, lithium and catic electric current in Luoyang industrial park in the third phase of project construction, planning capacity 5 GWH, in addition, its plans to invest 12.5 billion yuan in Jiangsu for power battery production. At present the main customers include land, Dongfeng motor, Henan shaolin ark, Nanjing jinlong, wild horse, Zhong tong coach, Chongqing in Sichuan rui chi, etc. In the first half of 2015, its power battery business income is about 400 million yuan.

Why we love it: as one of the few domestic state backgrounds of lithium battery companies, Chinaspecial lithium electricity is the most publicized on domestic power battery enterprises. But customers to give priority to short term results fast to do big commercial vehicles, commercial vehicles, after all, could not have sustained high growth, future growth will see passenger cars. Chinaspecial lithium electricity, on the other hand, in Jiangsu, and Luoyang heavy investment needs a lot of money, only by the parent company issue I'm afraid I can't meet, the future Chinaspecial lithium electricity as the core of large-scale capital operation space is larger.

NO. 8 WEINENG - Shandong warlord

Set up time: 2006 headquarters: Shandong shouguang

Shandong power environmental protection power supply co., LTD., founded in 2006, is the Shandong power environmental protection power (group) co., LTD., a subsidiary. Shandong power environmental protection group has power environmental protection power supply co., LTD., Qingdao in Shandong electric power electric vehicle co., LTD., Qingdao new material co., LTD., Beijing five diaphragm and power technology co., LTD., Kunshan power environmental protection power supply co., LTD., five branches.

Power of shouguang in Shandong province and Qingdao have power battery production base, with square batteries and ternary lithium iron phosphate material is given priority to, the overall capacity 1 GWH, main customers include Nanjing jinlong, Shanghai shen, Zhong tong coach, zhongtai automobile, etc. In the first half of 2015, wei can power battery business income of about 200 million yuan.

List for: power environmental protection current basic all orders from the field of commercial vehicles, passenger cars only zhongtai car in the use of three-yuan battery power environmental protection. Rapid growth power environmental protection is also benefit from the commercial vehicle market in 2014 and 2015 blowout, also depends on its future growth potential in the field of passenger car layout.

NO. 9 Micro Macro - maverick

Set up time: 2006 headquarters: Zhejiang Huzhou

Huzhou micro macro power system co., LTD., founded in 2006, is a deep research and development capacity of high-tech chemical and energy products supplier. Company engaged in new energy and storage technology products research and development, production and sales, is committed to provide clean energy solutions for different applications.

Micro macro power is Micro vast company's subsidiary, the production base is located in Huzhou city, Zhejiang province. Micro macro power to quick charge Lithium titanite battery power Give priority to. Overall capacity 1.5 Gwh at present, under construction phase ii 4 Gwh capacity, main customer for the Beijing auto fukuda, CSR times, land of the ark, Nanjing jinlong, Xiamen jinlong, Zhong tong coach, Chongqing Heng tong, etc. In the first half of 2015, the macro dynamic power battery business output value is about 450 million yuan.

Why we love it: micro macro power main fast filling fast put titanium acid lithium power battery, aim at the market for commercial vehicle market, especially in the field of bus and coach, micro macro power receiving. But how-to breakthrough in the field of passenger cars is the micro macro power should consider the future of new energy vehicles, after all, growth potential, or from the passenger cars.

NO. 10 GUONENG - rising star

Set up time: 2012 headquarters: Beijing

Beijing countries battery technology co., LTD., founded in 2012, is a country can group holdings subsidiaries. Beijing countries with lithium battery energy storage and power battery.

The company mainly produces single batteries main models for 60 ah and 100 ahs, the anode material using lithium iron phosphate and three yuan. The lithium iron phosphate batteries are mainly used for energy storage and electric bus, while ternary battery is mainly used in electric vehicles and vehicle at low speed, etc. Companies are actively expanding production, plans to expand capacity by the end of 2014 to 200 million AH/years. Company main customer is wuzhou dragon power battery, Chang Long buses, Zhengzhou Nissan, Suzhou jinlong, etc.

1.1.2 Comparison among major A-share lithium-ion electricity companies

The chart below is me according to online data collection:

The porch, Tianjin lishen, Ningde age three lithium electricity enterprises for research and development of science and technology in 2016 the first batch of national key projects, illustrate the three the highest technical level, from a certain perspective, the three is the national key support enterprise.

1, the leading listed company of lithium-ion battery--Guoxuan

2015 capacity of 7.5 YiAn, sales 2.2 billion, 2016 annual production capacity is expected to reach 18.5 YiAn, including 6.5 YiAn ternary cell.

Annual report 2015, 2.14 billion lithium-ion battery revenue, gross margin, 1.04 billion, 550 million, transmission and distribution margin of 1.5, the total net profit was 547 million, lithium battery is 478 million net profit.2015 net profit margin of 21.5%. In the first quarter net profit of 25%.

Lithium electricity sales, in the first half of 2016 in the first half of 2015, the porch high-tech power battery operating income of about 750 million yuan.

Comments: the porch of the technology in a leading position, for the national key research projects, intelligent pilot shortlisted for the industry. The porch is compared several enterprises only fully filling in lithium batteries, in addition to the lithium battery, and the anode materials and the diaphragm, the anode material has been put into production, the diaphragm and put into production in 2017.Through the whole ecology, on the one hand, can control the overall quality, but also can control the cost, stronger to resist the ability of the raw material price fluctuations. The porch of the strategy is clear, at present stage is a mature technology, without the capacity expansion as the first strategy, but the ramming technology, market, manufacture and up and down the industrial chain, and large-scale expansion. Belongs to a very solid business model.

2, Yiwei Li energy

Company lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium electricity both technical route, by the Hubei jingmen, which is mainly composed of the lithium iron phosphate as a production base, the current capacity of around 0.5 GWh; In Huizhou expansion has three yuan cylindrical 18650 battery at the same time, plans to build The ternary lithium ion batteries, the international first-class automatic production line of the second session of the second phase of the overall construction scale is 2.5 GWh, was built in the first half of next year. By the end of next year, the company's overall production capacity of 4.5 GWh lithium-ion batteries.

Company power battery raw materials from domestic manufacturers, important when l technology, shanshan shares, gold and shares, etc.

Currently the main customers are huatai, zhongtai, Nanjing jinlong, ou peng Bach, etc.

Million wei lithium can lithium-ion batteries to power lithium batteries from consumption, current capacity is low, only 0.5 GWh of the lithium iron phosphate, ternary batteries are built in the next year, planning capacity is larger, but the battery and car matching test also need a certain amount of time, so the real produce performance may until 2018.

Can review: $wei lithium as lower-tier players, in terms of power battery technology advantage, the unobvious superiority of main customers, the current capacity is small, the future expansion of scale is huge, but so nearly 10 times the capacity expansion, whether can smoothly, still need to verify.

3, Jianrui (Walter)

In 2015, Walter realized business income is 2.173 billion yuan, and net profit of 276 million-yuan, net profit margin of 12.7%. Walter ma is established fire mergers and acquisitions, and passed the examination and approval.

Walter m in addition to the power battery and energy storage battery, focusing on the lithium iron phosphate batteries, the company now is more than a simple battery manufacturing enterprise, but seek to guide industry development. Company set up the new energy automotive innovation alliance, alliance core material, the core components including industry chain enterprises, everybody together in technology innovation, forming a closed loop. Company through the move, for new energy technologies and market development direction as well as the global understanding, from passive to active development of tractor industry development. To form the model of linfen.

Comments: Walter can be said to be the typical wild growth, and local governments everywhere & industrial park, has a huge effect, but this model, after all, is not a real market model, there is a lot of hidden trouble, reminiscent of the top model, is also various places to build industrial park, the result? Do you have any, also to be seen?

In the field of technology, Walter did not become a technology leader, has been in the field of phosphoric acid iron curtain technology development, only in terms of ternary batteries, although claims to have technical accumulation, but have yet to see the relevant three yuan the actual capacity of the battery. Company if missed three-yuan battery first mover advantage, may be limited at the back of the development.

4, Wisdom Energy

Foster of Jiangxi province was founded in 2009, the main production18650 the ternary lithium battery, the scale of the product sales in the domestic first. Foster power battery products are recognized by the height of the downstream customers, foster is now the tiger is one of the two core power battery suppliers, is the only power battery Jiangling automobile supplier. Nissan for 1.25 million at present, the company is already two ternary power battery production line, production for 250000 / article, one of the production line will be in July reaches producing, another line will reaches producing in the first half of 2017.Is expected by the end of this year, can foster the production scale will reach Nissan 1.5 million cigarettes (65% for power battery, and 35% for consumer battery);By the end of 2017, Nissan will reach 1.75 million (used for power battery, 80% and 20% for consumer battery)

Wisdom energy in December 2015, with 1.2-billion-yuan price for complete full acquisition of Jiangxi foster success into three-yuan power battery field. Foster commitment of Jiangxi province in 2015-2017 net income of not less than 75 million respectively, 9500 and 130 million.

Foster's 2015 revenue of 2015, net profit 2015, net profit margin of 10.6%.1 - march this year to achieve revenue end at 243371445.48-yuan, net profit of RMB 44289520.14.Net profit margin of 18%

Foster three-yuan 2016-2018 year expected shipments of 1.2 GWh of power battery, GWh 2.1, 3.3 GWh,

Far east supporting downstream customers as zhongtai, foster Shaanxi family well-known car passenger cars and logistics, such as explosive is extremely strong. According to more than 1 GWH shipments, operating income in 2016 is expected to reach 2.5 billion yuan, including power battery PACK and income is 1.9 billion-yuan, battery consumption income is 600 million-yuan, power battery accounted for more than 70%. Far east foster contribution to profit is 200 million-yuan, intelligent energy other business profit of nearly 400 million yuan, the far east foster contribution accounted for 33.3%.

Comments: acquisition of lithium battery business, foster of profit less than a third of the overall profit, the company also does not belong to the company's main business. And foster in Jiangxi, customers are mainly concentrated in Jiangxi, the national radiation. Production capacity is relatively small, and technology does not belong to the first tier, not radical capacity expansion plan. Belong to the second tier.

5, Ningde Era - are not listed yet

In only four years after establishment, namely into the first tier, rapid development, the performance of outstanding, miraculously, embodies the savage growth of Fujian. Of course, the most mainly because of ningde era (CATL) based on ATL, and ATL 3 c battery technology in the domestic first level of technology, apple, Huawei, millet, OPPO brands such as batteries, cell phone use is ATL big Xinjian inorganic also CATL battery. So CATL has profound technical background and accumulation.

In 2015, its power lithium battery power battery of China more than 10% of market share, annual sales of 2.4 GWh, second only to Panasonic (5.5 GWh), byd (GWh) 3, ranked third in the world. This year has reached 7.5 GWh capacity, lithium iron phosphate and three yuan each half, balanced development.

In 2014, the CATL power battery sales income of about 860 million yuan, in the first half of 2015, power battery sales income of about 950 million yuan. Online data is selling 5 billion, 2015, nine’s boss Yuqin Zeng power battery for $1 billion, $1.7 billion of 3 c battery. Because is not a listed company, the feeling of a bit of a mouthful to run the train. In addition, for it is said that 2015 net income of 1 billion.,

Comments: Ningde era capacity first, technology HeGuoXuan each has his strong point, belongs to the strongest technology. Due to the Ningde is not listed, filled with all sorts of exaggerating the capacity and the sales data. Ningde large capacity expansion in 2016, however, will not exist capacity expansion too fast, can't keep up with, particularly in terms of market and technical validation?

Ningde era from Fujian Ningde scratch and also fully reflects the characteristics of Fujian, is a little wild growth character, too pursuit of scale. Internet era full of Ningde sales hit 20 billion, 2016, 2015 sales of more than 5 billion data, actually 2015 power battery production and sales are bigger than the porch, only the sales data of the 5 billion have bigger moisture. The so-called impact 20 billion is the slogan of the great leap forward in 2016.

Ningde is not listed, there have been listed on the plan.

Ningde as boss of domestic lithium battery, this year's focus is to expand capacity, no self-built lithium battery cathode material, diaphragm, such as building ecosystem, look from the good aspects is to seize the moment to expand their capacity, never looked good, is to get rich quick, no solid foundation, more the pursuit of short-term effect, give up certain long-term effects. It may also and Ningde rush to fetch a good price.

6, Tianjin Lishen - unlisted

From the small mobile phone batteries to the big car power battery, Tianjin lishen battery joint-stock co., LTD., aim at the broad prospects of new energy vehicles industry, break into the market through continuous innovation. Under construction in the electric vehicle power battery expansion project in 2017 can add output value of more than 4 billion yuan a year, after the production of driving the development of the city's new energy automotive industry chain. Lishen in power battery technology continue to accumulate for Yutong, jinlong, faw, jianghuai enterprise recognition at home and abroad, such as sales revenue growth spurt, 2014 lishen power battery sales income is 100 million yuan, jumped to 2 billion yuan in 2015, this year's sales revenue is expected to reach 4 billion yuan.

Company in 2015 operating income of about 4.2 billion-yuan, net profit more than $200 million. Among them, the power battery operating income of about 2 billion yuan.3 c lithium battery operating income of about 2.2 billion yuan, losses of more than 5000.In 2015, the company power battery production in about 2 billion Wh, ternary battery accounted for 30-40%, three-yuan battery supply basically all passenger car, bus almost none. On capacity expansion, the company began in 2016 the new lithium iron phosphate capacity 4 billion Wh, is expected to begin in 2017, the other was provided a 3-c lithium battery production line to increase production capacity of 600 million Wh.

Power battery profit margins of 12.5% in 2015

Comments: Tianjin lishen 2015 2.2 billion of 3 c lithium battery revenue is brought about by the loss of 50 million, visible 3 c batteries into excessive competition, and the market is not synchronous growth. Lishen as the first echelon (Ningde era, the porch and force the god as the first echelon), shortlisted for the national key research projects, technical capacity also is in the first tier, but Tianjin lishen's two biggest problems, one is the mechanism of state-owned enterprises, make the limited energy, has not been listed on the second, the lack of funding and public brand, credibility.

1.1.3 Why is Guoxuan the most worth investment of the lithium-ion battery

Through the above data, we can do further analysis:

1, why the porch of the net profit margin is far better than other companies.

2015 countries hin power battery net profit margin is as high as 21%, as high as 25% in the first quarter, and Walter m 2015 net profit margin of 12.7%, foster 2015 net profit margin of 10.6%.1 - net profit margin of 18% in March this year. Ningde era in about 10-15% (power battery, $1 billion net income of 1 billion yuan, still has $1.7 billion of 3 c batteries), Tianjin lishen's 2015 net profit margin of 12.5%.

The porch of the net profit margin than rivals, thanks to the porch of the corporate governance structure, not the pursuit of scale in the first place, the long-term technology accumulation, the porch is the only one from the start positioning in the automotive power battery, rather than from 3 c batteries by doing power battery. As a listed company, the porch pay attention to the long-term development of enterprises, pay attention to the short-term profitability and long-term profitability of enterprises.

Power battery has a considerable technical barrier, forming technology advantage need powerful r&d ability and the accumulation of long time. Walter is typical of the pursuit of scale, the pursuit of the market, inadequate investment in terms of technical advantages.

2, the Xuan still can maintain such a good net profit margin?

The current market, each big crazy lithium electricity companies to expand capacity, lithium electricity of excess production capacity will sooner or later, is a structural surplus, also has technical advantages, customer advantage power battery is out of stock, especially for Samsung, LG lithium battery was forced directory market vacancy. But industry overall profits will decline gradually, and the porch can keep the best profit in the industry, because the porch of a subsequent party - the material self-supply of lithium-ion batteries will soon make effects, the anode materials and diaphragm production itself, in a way that can improve profit margins.

3, why the porch from 2012-2013 the first batch of backward to the third fourth?

In many power lithium battery enterprises, porch is the purest power lithium battery enterprise, and the other from 3 c lithium battery by doing power lithium battery enterprise is not the same, the porch is to do power battery from its inception. The porch is in 2012-2013 power lithium batteries, but since 2014, Ningde, Walter and expansion has started to, but is extraordinary expansion, whereas the porch, also in the expansion, but is one step a footprint, expansion speed is much less than the age of Ningde and Walter. Ningde era and Walter expansion has on the one hand, on the one hand, grab the market at a lower price, keeping the good profits, so the porch and Ningde era and Walter’s profit is relatively lower. But I personally think that this is the advantage of the porch, embodied in the following respects

A) the porch as a listed company, the more pay attention to the overall profit, if also and Ningde, Walter to grab the market at a lower price, profits will collapse soon, will soon be reflected in the share price. And Ningde era and Walter is not listed, are listed to fetch a good price, so to expand at the expense of profits, the pursuit of wild growth, as is known to all, savage growth may bend overtaking, but the bigger probability is not harmonious, once the storm, is fatal. The porch not for short-term interests at the expense of long-term development, it is one hundred years old, is worthy of long-term investment.

B) the porch in the opportunity at the same time, increase investment in research and development, research and development spending in 2014 from 45 million to 135 million, at the same time increase the production of inputs such as the anode material, the diaphragm, ensure high profits.

C) Walter was established in 2016 red fire of mergers and acquisitions, once the process through, is the consolidated financial statements, according to the acquisition agreement, net income is not lower than 4.03, 5.05, 2016-2018, 609 million yuan, to pay attention to profits, not unlimited expansion and low price dumping.Net profit of 2015 to 274 million, 2015 to 400 million, affected by the new energy automobile policy be born this year, the overall market is not so good, Walter has been have no capital to low-priced market. As for Ningde age, huge production capacity expansion this year, in the current market under the condition of not too good, should also face some of the pressure capacity to digest, to listed needs a relatively better profit, should fight the urge to be price dumping. So, Walter, Ningde era brings a little restraint the pace of expansion. Lithium battery sales competition will only in several big lithium electricity enterprise.

D) the porch capacity expansion has always been very strategic planning, such as the production capacity of 2016 mainly ternary cell expansion, and three-yuan Beijing auto battery, jianghuai, etc. to determine customer, and touched the Korean lithium electricity without landing at the same time. The porch of the plan is to large-scale expansion in 2018, which is in all respects gambling will straighten out again on the basis of large-scale expansion.

4, the future pattern of lithium battery?

The pattern of the future power lithium battery should be the strong stronger, eliminating the weak, this is a national strategy, the state made clear to foster several power battery enterprises with development potential. Directory of lithium-ion batteries used in the first step is to force the basic will not include in the directory to be eliminated, the second step, the dynamic adjustment directory, adjust does not conform to the specifications of the lithium-ion battery out directory, make the production and marketing of lithium-ion batteries more focused on to foster enterprise.

Now can enter the mainstream car companies in the supply chain power battery supplier is less than ten, mainly to the future of this competition within 10, and competition is mainly technology, customers, service and capital competition. The porch in the several aspects are one of the best competitive, technology belongs to the national foster enterprise, has the stable customer, at the same time taking a stake in the new energy automobile enterprises, such as Beijing, the Xuan has listed the financing advantage of on one hand, on the other hand, has the rich profit form the endogenous growth of self-hematopoietic development.

Future mainly Ningde era, the porch, and god's competition, but more major is HeGuoXuan Ningde era of competition. Lishen due to the mechanism, is likely to fall to the second tier. The first tier is HeGuoXuan ningde era. Walter, catic, wei lithium can later became the second echelon. There will be other third echelon, such as energy, bick, universal wisdom. Again, in the future can be difficult to enter the mainstream car companies supply chain.

5, power battery will repeat 3 c battery vicious competition?

2016 power battery expanding production scale is huge, and various business planning capacity expansion is amazing. The battery power battery will repeat 3 c vicious competition? Tianjin lishen 3 c battery 2015 revenue of 2.2 billion, 50 million loss, how to let a person lose enough.

I think the profits of power battery will gradually decline, this is the irreversible trend, but not to the 3-c battery this vicious competition. Here’s why:

1, power battery has a considerable customer barrier, technical barriers, power battery to match models, once the match, it is unlikely to change, so there is quite a customer stickiness, the and 3 c battery is totally different. Car companies will not only in price as the only choice. For technical barriers, power battery technology in continuous evolution, evolution is far greater than the speed of the 3-c battery, energy density from 130 wh/kg of the lithium iron phosphate to three yuan 165 wh/kg, the future is expected to 2020 to 330 wh/kg, who in the energy density, rechargeable consistency, charge and discharge times such as micro innovation, micro aspects breakthrough, who has a competitive advantage. The powerful r&d ability, such as the latest graphene anode, the porch has started mass production, but is limited by cost, mass production is not big.

2, power battery demand growth, if the scale development of new energy vehicles or according to the national planning, demand growth of power battery is almost doubling every year, of course, for now, power battery capacity expansion planning is more than demand growth.

3, can enter the mainstream car companies in the supply chain in less than 10 power battery enterprises, will form a three tier, each tier is 2-4, so the same echelon form of tacit understanding, don't capacity expanded too fast, so that the overall profit fell in.

4, scale and falling profits run, see who runs faster, the capacity expansion of overall revenue increases to offset the decline in profits, see which factors is bigger.

5, from the above analysis, the future of power battery market concentration will be more and more high, in the end no more than five mainstream manufacturers, or other vendors will in gleaning bare specific markets. The five major power battery enterprises will participate in international competition, the porch, etc. have already entered the international top ten. Which five will grow, it is also a national strategy. Subsidies from the national development and the policy level in this way, such as subsidies at present just before the open sprinkle pepper, key fill raise key enterprises. If the future is this model, then surely the porch is one of the five, and is the size of the revenue doubled every year growth, consider all factors, the porch of the strongest.

1.1.4 Will Guoxuan’s development be smooth?

Hin recent share price adjustment, and relevant shareholders holdings, but also performance dropped, the porch will eventually grow into the first echelon of lithium electricity enterprises, but in the middle of the road may not be smooth, is the most main industry reshuffle of time may be affected, especially when they are in excess capacity.

For 2016, planning is of great capacity, the actual capacity is not large, the porch when YiAn expanded from 7.5 to 18.5 YiAn, Ningde from 3 Gwh Gwh expand to 7.5 times, Tianjin lishen actually 2016 expansion cannot be put into production.

But in 2017 and 2018, it will be the time of expansion of large-scale production for lithium electricity industry. If 2016 is a year of structural surplus, 2017/2018 may be excess comprehensively, lithium electricity companies will be shuffled comprehensively, and Guoxuan will be affected certainly from the beginning, such as profit will decline, but its technology, material self-supplied can remain invincible. It will bring its superiority into full play during shuffle to be stable in the first camp, even ranks up in the first camp.

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