Soft pack lithium battery continues to increase future demand up to 59GWh

The gradual improvement of the recognition of automobile enterprises and the penetration rate of soft-packed lithium batteries in the field of power lithium batteries are expected to increase rapidly. It is expected to drive the CAGR of the entire soft-packed lithium battery to more than 35%. It is expected that the 2020 3C, power and energy storage soft-pack lithium battery Demand will reach 59GWh. Domestic power lithium-ion enterprises are also accelerating the layout of soft-package technology. It is expected that the soft pack capacity will reach 27GWh during the year. The soft-pack lithium battery is still in the rapid development period of expansion and product transformation.

High specific energy and high safety, casting the performance advantages of soft pack battery. The biggest feature of the soft-pack lithium battery structure is the use of aluminum-plastic composite film as the packaging material. The main advantages include: 1) the outer packaging of the aluminum plastic film, which will not easily explode, so the safety performance is high; 2) the aluminum plastic film is light in weight and space. The utilization rate is high, so the energy density is large; 3) the battery has small internal resistance and long life, so the cycle performance is good. Under the high energy density requirements of the battery, its safety and energy density will be more important.

The penetration of the power field is accelerating, and the soft-packed lithium battery is developing at a high speed. The first echelon of soft-package lithium battery technology is mainly Japanese and Korean companies. Especially LG is the global leader of soft-packed lithium battery. Its energy density and stability are better. Chevrolet, Nissan and other car companies mainly use LG soft. Packed batteries, in general, Japan and South Korea and other international car companies have higher recognition of the technical route of soft-packed lithium batteries. The current mainstream electric vehicle companies in China are also accelerating the application of soft pack batteries. Beiqi, SAIC and other passenger car companies have begun to try to use soft pack batteries, of which Wanxiang A123 and Funeng Technology soft pack batteries occupy the mainstream. The domestic ternary soft pack technology has made remarkable progress, and the energy density has been greatly improved. Taking Funeng Technology as an example, the monomer energy density reaches 220wh/kg, and the pack is between 140-160wh/kg. The trend of soft packs is on the rise. Power battery companies are taking the lead and increasing the expansion of soft packs. The soft pack battery capacity of 9 soft pack batteries will reach 27GWh by the end of 2017. We believe that the demand for lithium batteries and the penetration rate of soft packs will grow side by side. The penetration rate of soft packs will be around 41% in 2020, and the demand for soft pack batteries will reach 59GWh and GAGR will be 35%.

The aluminum plastic film market is growing at a high speed, and import substitution is accelerating. The global (China) aluminum plastic film market and technology have been monopolized by a few Japanese and Korean companies, with a national productivity of only 5% and a large import substitution space. With the release of domestic aluminum-plastic film, it is expected that the market share of domestic aluminum-plastic film will exceed 10% in 2017 and reach 40% by 2020.

Structural differences in packaging materials, soft-packed lithium battery technology is difficult. The soft lithium battery and the traditional lithium battery are similar in the application and structure layout of the positive electrode, the negative electrode, the electrolyte, etc. The biggest difference lies in the packaging material. The traditional lithium battery has an outer shell such as an aluminum shell or a steel shell, and the soft lithium battery is used. As a packaging material, the aluminum-plastic composite film determines the difference in the packaging method. Due to the use of aluminum-plastic packaging film materials, soft-pack lithium batteries are sealed with thermal packaging, while metal-clad lithium batteries are generally sealed with metal shells (laser welding).

For the soft pack battery, the aluminum-plastic composite film packaging technology is difficult, mainly in two aspects. First, the performance strength of the aluminum plastic film determines the design and application scenarios of the battery, and the second is the battery safety felt by the packaging technology.

The aluminum plastic film is usually divided into three layers, namely an outer resist layer (generally an outer protective layer composed of nylon BOPA or PET), a barrier layer (intermediate aluminum foil) and an inner layer (multifunctional high barrier layer). The material is difficult, the inner layer generally requires high heat resistance to prevent short circuit, the middle layer needs to have good water vapor resistance and stable processing performance, and the outer layer needs strong impact resistance and puncture resistance. At present, there is still a large technical improvement space for the technology of aluminum plastic film. In addition, good packaging technology is the key to soft-package battery technology, which can effectively solve the problem of bubbling (flatulence). The main reasons are: a) hot-sealing of aluminum-plastic film materials, water vapor entering the reaction expansion and leakage; b) The battery design problem (the probability of occurrence is small), the internal short circuit is out of control.

The safety and energy density of the soft-pack lithium battery is superior to that of the conventional lithium battery. Soft pack batteries offer a range of advantages in both form factor and battery applications.

In addition, the shape of the soft-pack lithium battery has the advantage of flexible design. On this basis, according to the specific size of the pack box, the battery can be customized according to the specific size of the pack box, or the battery can be fully utilized. The internal space of the body meets the needs of differentiated customers.

In addition to the above various advantages, the current progress of the soft pack battery is also slow, such as poor consistency, high cost, prone to flatulence, leakage. Flatulence and leakage can be improved or even solved by improving the quality of the aluminum plastic film, sealing process, and module reinforcement to reduce vibration. Consistency and cost issues can be solved through large-scale production and localization of aluminum-plastic films.

The downstream market for soft-pack lithium batteries can be subdivided into 3C, power and energy storage. The application of soft pack battery is firstly in the 3C field, and its development process has developed rapidly with the internal integration process of digital batteries, especially in the integration of batteries such as notebook computers and mobile phones. As of 2016, the penetration rate of soft pack batteries is near. 60%, but in recent years, the growth rate of consumption of traditional 3C products has slowed down. Under the high penetration rate, the demand growth rate of corresponding soft packs is gradually slowing down. At the same time, with the continued high growth of new energy vehicles, the growth of power battery shipments in 2016 has become the main driving force for the development of the lithium battery industry. The penetration rate of the current soft-packed lithium battery market has also increased, reaching nearly 12% in 2016. The energy storage market is an emerging field for lithium battery applications. There are fewer soft packs for short-term applications. In the future, as the cost of soft packs declines, there is also a large growth potential in this area.

Soft pack batteries benefit from the expansion of demand for lithium batteries and the increase in penetration rate. The demand for soft pack lithium batteries will reach 59GWh in 2020. In terms of total volume, China's lithium battery demand will maintain a relatively high growth rate (GAGR is 27%), and total demand will reach 144.3GWh in 2020. Based on the above analysis, we believe that the accelerated penetration of soft packs in the power field will drive the total growth of the total soft pack lithium battery. We expect the soft pack penetration rate to reach 41% in 2020 and the soft pack lithium battery demand to reach 58.9GWh, GAGR. It is 35%.

3.1. The pattern of the consumer sector is stable, and ATL has the right to speak the soft pack.

The pattern of soft pack battery consumption is stable, and the industry pattern led by ATL remains basically unchanged. The consumer lithium battery industry is mature and downstream customers are stable. The main suppliers are international giants such as ATL, LG and Panasonic.

Among them, ATL is the world's largest consumer lithium battery company. From 2012 to 2016, the shipment of soft pack battery (polymer) for five consecutive years ranked the first in the world, and its production capacity exceeded half of the world. The company has an absolute say in the industry, and its main customers include Apple, Samsung electronics and other international top customers. In China, Guangyu and Lishen also seized the development opportunities of popularization of smart terminals including mobile phones and tablets, and ranked among the top consumers in the world for lithium-ion batteries. Guangyu's soft pack battery (polymer) ranks fifth in the world, supplying products to world-renowned digital manufacturers including Hewlett-Packard and Dell. Lishen's consumer products are also highly competitive, with major customers including Apple, Samsung, LG, HP, Dell and Huawei.

3.2. High specific energy can promote the rapid development of soft pack power, and accelerate the layout of battery companies

3.2.1 Soft package power lithium battery application acceleration, LG Wanxiang leads the global trend

The soft pack battery has been highly recognized by international auto companies, and the LG soft pack is unique. Due to the safe performance and high energy efficiency of the soft pack battery, Chevrolet Volt, Bolt, Nissan Leaf, Ford (Focus, Fusion, Volvo XC90 and other international high-end models have adopted soft-pack lithium batteries, the main suppliers are LG, AESC, etc., LG The soft bag technology is internationally leading. The self-produced ternary NCM is used as the positive electrode material. After the laminated soft bag design, the battery energy density can be increased by more than 20%, the cycle life can be doubled, and the ASEC soft package can be used to take the lithium manganate route. Compared with ternary materials, energy density and cycle performance are at a disadvantage. LG soft pack power lithium battery technology leads, Nissan leaf tends to use LG soft bag.

Domestic car companies are accelerating the application of soft packs, and Wanxiang, Funeng Technology, Guoneng and other manufacturers occupy the mainstream. The acceptance of domestic car enterprises in the application of soft-packed power lithium batteries is gradually improving. At present, passenger cars, passenger cars, logistics vehicles and other aspects have appeared in related facilities. Domestic mainstream electric passenger car companies such as BAIC, SAIC, Zotye, and Chery try to use soft pack batteries. In the case of the soft pack battery of 10 mainstream models, Wanxiang and Funeng Technology have the most supporting models: Wanxiang A123 supporting 4 models (SAIC Roewe series and Changan Yidong), and Funeng Technology supporting various models of Beiqi (Beiqi EC180) One model is included in the EU260, EX series, and Jiangling E200), CATL, and polyfluoride. In addition, Guoneng Battery has more supporting vehicles for passenger cars, and related supporting and supply to mainstream electric bus companies such as Ankai Bus and Nanjing Jinlong. In the second half of 2017, it entered dozens of A00 models of SAIC-GM-Wuling and Jiangling supply chain.

3.2.2. The energy density of the soft package is greatly improved, and the battery manufacturer accelerates the layout.

The energy density of the ternary soft pack has increased significantly. According to the data of high-tech lithium battery, as of May 2017, there are 14 enterprises with energy density of soft pack batteries exceeding 160wh/kg. Some manufacturers have soft pack monomer energy density of 220wh/kg and above, such as Funeng Technology. The system energy density after the PACK of Funeng Technology is 140-160wh/kg, which is much higher than the subsidy energy density requirement. It is expected that its stable performance will continue to promote the R&D layout and production competition of other enterprises in the soft-package lithium battery.

The technology has matured, and power battery companies have increased their efforts to expand their soft packs. The soft pack battery has gradually been recognized by domestic automakers. The manufacturers such as Funeng Technology have seen the development opportunities of soft pack batteries in the future, and have started to expand their production. We have counted the main 9 soft pack battery companies, which are expected to be soft by the end of 2017. The battery capacity will be 27GWh. From the perspective of production capacity, the soft pack production capacity of Funeng Technology and Guoneng Battery is leading the industry. From the perspective of competitiveness, Wanxiang A123 (mainly for passenger cars), Funeng Technology (mainly for passenger cars), and national energy batteries (mainly for passenger cars) are relatively strong. The planned production capacity in 2020 is above 20GWh. (In addition to Wanxiang A123), in addition, companies such as Polyfluoride, Tianjin Jiewei and Penghui Energy have the potential to break out.

4. The aluminum-plastic market is monopolized by Japan and South Korea, and the import substitution space is large.

With the expansion of demand for soft-pack lithium batteries, China's aluminum plastic film market will reach 6.3 billion Yuan in 2020. According to the demand for power storage and 3C soft-packed lithium batteries from 2017 to 2020, according to the price of power storage and 3C different types of aluminum plastic film, we calculate that the demand for aluminum plastic film in China is 0.95 billion in 2017-2019. 127 million flats, 172 million flats, 236 million flats, corresponding market space of 3.1 billion Yuan, 3.9 billion Yuan, 4.9 billion Yuan, 6.3 billion Yuan, GAGR is 26%.

The global aluminum plastic film market and technology have been monopolized by a few companies such as Japan and South Korea, with a national productivity of only 5%. Among them, Dainippon Printing (DNP), Japan Showa Denko, Japan Toppan Printing (T&T), and Korea's Kurimura have mastered the core technology of aluminum-plastic film and occupy most of the market, among which DNP and Showa Denko have produced global market share of aluminum-plastic film up to 70%. The domestic market share of domestic enterprises is only 5%, and domestic aluminum-plastic film is mainly concentrated in second- and third-line consumer lithium-ion enterprises. Taking Zijiang new materials as an example, the actual production capacity of aluminum-plastic film is about 500,000 square meters per month, but more than 90%. It is a supply of digital lithium-ion enterprises, and there is still much room for improvement in the technology of domestic aluminum-plastic film.

Xinlun Technology, Zijiang New Materials and other enterprises will lead the domestic aluminum plastic film to break through the difficulties, and the national production rate is expected to exceed 10% in 2017. In August 2016, Xinlun Technology completed the acquisition of Japan's letterpress printing (T&T) aluminum plastic film business. The T&T plant currently has a capacity of 2 million flats per month and plans to build 3 million flat/month capacities in Changzhou. The estimated production time is 2017. After the process and technology are very stable, the equipment in Japan will be relocated to Changzhou, and its production capacity will be upgraded to 2 million square meters to 3 million square meters. After the completion of production, the total production capacity will reach 6 million square meters. Xinlun Technology will become the first aluminum plastic film in China. The giant, and is expected to inherit the letterpress printing upgrade to the world's third international aluminum film company. In addition, Zijiang New Materials has been deeply cultivated for many years in the field of consumer lithium-ion aluminum plastic film, and its actual production capacity is about 500,000 square meters of aluminum plastic film per month. The main customers include ATL and Samsung. We believe that under the strong driving force of Xinlun Technology, domestic aluminum plastic film enterprises will gradually increase their market share. It is expected that the national production rate will exceed 10% in 2017 and reach 40% by 2020.

5. Risk warning

Macroeconomic downside risks: After experiencing the upward trend of the cyclical industry in 2016, it will face cyclical downward pressure in 2017, and there may be downward adjustment pressure on the growth rate of cyclical industries such as automobiles.

New energy vehicle policy adjusts risks. If the subsidy policy is adjusted again, it will cause battery shipments to fall short of expectations.

The progress of localization of aluminum plastic film is less than expected. Due to the lack of local technology and management of local enterprises, or the risk of international competitors, the process of localization is not as expected.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.