New Energy Vehicle Market and Industrial Policy on Lithium Battery Industry

In recent years, China's new energy automotive industry has developed rapidly and has become one of the leading industries in the world. According to data from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, in 2017, China's new energy vehicle production and sales reached 794,000 vehicles and 777,000 vehicles, respectively, and the cumulative ownership reached 1.8 million vehicles, accounting for more than 50 % of the global market, ranking first in the world for three consecutive years.

1, new energy industry industrial policy analysis

As an emerging industry, the rapid development of the new-energy automotive industry can not be separated from state policy support. In order to speed up the industrialization of new-energy automobiles, the state has issued a series of relevant policy documents, formulated and implemented subsidies and double-point policies. It has a major impact on the development of the new energy automotive industry.

Relevant laws and regulations

Since 2012, the main laws and regulations adopted by the state that have a great influence on the industry are as follows:

Subsidies policy

In order to support the development of the new energy vehicle industry, the central government has allocated special funds to subsidize the production and sale of new energy vehicles. After experiencing new energy vehicle fraud and other incidents, the Ministry of Finance and other four ministries and commissions have made major adjustments to the subsidy standards of the new energy automotive industry, strengthening the energy consumption, mileage, battery performance, and safety of new energy vehicles. Requirements. The current specific criteria for subsidies are as follows.

Subsidies for new energy passenger cars:

The technical requirements for new energy passenger cars are: 1. The unit of mass energy consumption per unit is not more than 0.24 Wh/km? Kg; 2 The mileage of pure electric passenger cars is not less than 200 kilometers; 3 The total quality of the battery system does not account for more than 20 % of the total vehicle preparation quality; 4 The energy density of the battery system of non-fast-charging pure electric passenger cars is higher than 85 Wh/kg, the fast-charging pure electric passenger cars is higher than 3C, and the fuel saving rate of plug-in hybrid passenger cars is higher than 40 %. Amount of subsidy = vehicle charge × unit electricity subsidy standard × adjustment coefficient (adjustment coefficient: system energy density/charging rate/fuel saving level).

New energy passenger car subsidy rates:

The technical requirements for new energy passenger vehicles are: 1 pure electric passenger car 30 minutes maximum speed is not less than 100km / h; 2 pure electric passenger car power battery system mass energy density is not less than 90Wh / kg, higher than 120Wh/kg is subsidized by 1.1 times; 3 pure electric passenger car products, according to the whole vehicle quality (m), the power consumption (Y) of 100 kilometers under working conditions should meet the following requirements: when m≤1000kg, Y≤0.014×m+0.5; when Y<m≤1600kg, Y≤0.012×m+2.5; when m>1600kg, Y≤0.005×m+13.7; 4 working condition pure electric driving range less than 80km The B-state fuel consumption of the hybrid passenger vehicle (the fuel consumption without the conversion of electric energy) is less than 70% compared with the corresponding limit of the current national standard for conventional fuel consumption, and the driving range of the pure electric driving is greater than or equal to 80 km. The plug-in hybrid passenger car has the same power consumption as the pure electric passenger car in the A state of 100 kilometers.

Subsidies for new energy trucks and special vehicles:

The technical requirements for new energy trucks and special vehicles are: 1 The mass energy density of the loading power battery system is not less than 90 Wh/kg; 2 Pure electric trucks and transport special vehicles unit mass energy consumption (Ekg) is not higher than 0.5 Wh/km · kg, and other pure electric vehicles are 100 km of electricity consumption (according to test quality) not more than 13 kWh.

Subsidies for vehicles other than fuel cell vehicles were appropriately lowered from 2017 to 2020. Subsidies for 2017 to 2018 were reduced by 20 % from 2016, and subsidies for 2019 to 2020 were reduced by 40 % from 2016.

Moreover, not all manufacturers of new energy vehicles that meet technology requirements are subsidized. In order to obtain subsidies, new energy vehicles first need to be equipped with the power battery products of enterprises in the "Standard Conditions for Automobile power battery Industry". Second, new energy vehicles must enter the "new energy vehicle promotion and application recommended model catalogue", new energy car products included in the "catalogue" sales promotion can apply for subsidies.

The implementation of the new subsidy policy will undoubtedly bring a huge impact on the new energy automotive industry. The new requirements such as battery energy density and energy consumption coefficient introduced in the new policy have made it impossible to follow the business model that previously relied on low-priced low-end models such as microcars and small cars. The enterprise that master the core technology will occupy the advantage in the competition, the new energy automobile industry enters the period of survival of the fittest.

Double integral policy

On September 27, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Commerce, the General Administration of Customs, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision and Inspection jointly promulgated the "Measures for the Management of Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Points in Passenger Vehicle Enterprises", which is the so-called "Double Points Policy." The management of future corporate fuel consumption points (CAFC) and new energy car points (NEV) will be implemented and implemented on April 1, 2018(2018 only score). The implementation of this policy not only requires car companies to continuously reduce the average fuel consumption of traditional fuel cars, but also produce and sell new energy vehicles.

The formula for calculating the fuel consumption points is(the average fuel consumption of the enterprise meets the standard value-the actual value of the average fuel consumption of the enterprise) x annual output, Companies with negative fuel consumption points can purchase fuel consumption points from their associated car companies that have positive points, or produce more new energy vehicles, purchase new energy points from other car companies, and make up for them with enough new energy points.

At the same time, according to the requirements of the double points policy, the proportion of new energy car points for motor vehicles in 2018, 2019, and 2020 must reach 8 %, 10 %, and 12 %. The scoring of new energy vehicles can be freely traded, but it can not be carried forward.

2, the booming new energy car market

In 2017, China sold 777,000 new energy vehicles, an increase of 53.25 % year-on-year. Among them, 578,000 new energy passenger vehicles were sold, an increase of 72.02 % over 2016; Sales of new energy commercial vehicles were 198,000, an increase of 15.79 % over 2016. According to the "Medium-and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry, Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Science and Technology in April 2017, by 2020, China's annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million vehicles, and by 2025 China's new energy penetration rate will reach more than 20 %. In order to achieve the goal of producing and selling 2 million vehicles by 2020, the compound growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 37 % between 2017 and 2020.

New energy passenger car market

Since 2014, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China have continued to increase. Sales in 2017 have more than tripled compared with those in 2015. Although the year-on-year growth rate in 2017 has declined, it has remained at a high 72 %. Taking into account the growth rate of fuel passenger vehicles and the requirements of the double-point policy, it is estimated that the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in China will reach 950,000, 1.34 million and 1.84 million respectively from 2018 to 2020, and the annual compound growth rate will be 47 %. Due to the heavy power mix of the subsidy policy, the sales of pure electric vehicles have gradually become the mainstream of new energy passenger car sales. The proportion of pure electric vehicle sales in the total sales of new energy passenger vehicles has increased from 64 % in 2015 to 81 % in 2017. The proportion of pure electric vehicles is expected to increase further as power cell technology advances and energy density increases and market recognition increases for new energy vehicles.

Judging from the sales area, the market concentration of the new energy passenger car area was relatively high in 2017, with sales in the top ten sales areas accounting for 55.1 % of total sales, and five of the top ten sales areas were restricted to purchase cities. In Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Hangzhou and Guangzhou, new energy passenger car sales accounted for 42 % of the total sales volume of the five major limited cities. Overall, the sales of new energy vehicles rely more on the limited purchase cities. In terms of quarterly sales and individual car companies, the proportion of sales volume of unrestricted cities in the first quarter of 2017 was 26.6 %, and 38.6 % and 44.9 % in the second and third quarters, respectively. The new energy brands represented by Jiangling, Jianghuai, Zhidou and Chirui have already come out of the restricted purchase cities. The market share of non-limited-purchase cities accounts for more than 50 %, and the market acceptance of non-limited-purchase cities for new energy vehicles has gradually increased. In the future, new energy passenger car sales will continue to grow steadily with the launch of market demand in non-restricted cities.

From the sales situation of domestic new energy vehicles, both in 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, BYD and BAIC New Energy have always maintained an absolute leading edge. In 2017, the sales volume of passenger cars of both companies exceeded 100,000. In the first quarter, BYD and BAIC New Energy ranked first and second respectively with sales of 28,499 and 21,251 vehicles. It is worth noting that in 2018, domestic new power car companies also began to achieve sales breakthroughs. Xiaopeng Automobile achieved sales of 39 vehicles in January, becoming the first Internet car manufacturer to enter the new energy vehicle sales list. By March, Yundu Automobile's Cloud π1 Intercity Edition, Cloud π1 City Edition, and Cloud π3 sold 75 vehicles, 25 vehicles, and 15 vehicles respectively, and Xiaopeng Automobile IDENTYX sold 30 vehicles.

New Energy Commercial Vehicle Market

New energy commercial vehicles are divided into passenger cars and special vehicles. New energy passenger cars are mainly used as buses for the public sector. New energy special vehicles are divided into sanitation special vehicles, engineering special vehicles, special vehicles, business special vehicles, transportation special vehicles, military special vehicles and other types. In 2017, the sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles in China was 198,000, an increase of 15.79 % year-on-year. Pure electric vehicles account for a relatively large proportion of new energy commercial vehicles, accounting for 80 % in 2015 and 93 % in 2017.

New energy passenger car

In 2017, domestic sales of new energy passenger cars reached 86.67 million vehicles, a year-on-year decline of 24.41 %. This was due to the fact that at the end of 2016, due to the uncertainty of future subsidy policies, the demand for overdrafts by car companies for 17 years at the end of the year, as the new subsidy policies fell and the overdraft effect weakened. In the first two months of 2018, the sales volume of new energy passenger cars reached 4,021 vehicles, an increase of 75 % year-on-year. The new energy passenger cars are mainly divided into seat passenger cars, school buses, bus buses and sleeping shops. In 2017, the sales of various types of passenger cars were 11,410 vehicles, 1 vehicle, 75,991 vehicles, and 24,587 vehicles. The maximum proportion of bus buses was 68 %.

The development of new energy bus is inseparable from state policy support. Since 2015, subsidies for oil price increases for public transport products have been linked to the number of new energy promotion. At the same time, subsidies have been provided for the operation of new energy buses. Major cities have issued plans for the promotion of new energy buses: Beijing aims to launch 10,000 pure electric buses by 2020. Shaanxi Province plans to reach more than 7,000 new energy buses in the province by 2020, and Hainan Province plans to account for 90 % of new energy buses by 2020, etc. Specifically, by 2018, Shaoyang City plans to invest 400 new energy buses, Chengde City plans to purchase 100 pure electric buses of various models, Huangshi City plans to purchase 145 pure electric buses, and Xiamen strives to launch 800 pure electric buses. Wait; Multiple promotion measures have jointly promoted a significant increase in the electromotive rate of buses. In addition to the increase in the promotion of new energy buses in various cities, the replacement of new energy buses in the next few years will also be one of the main growth points of new energy buses.

Judging from the overall market of new energy buses, in the 11 months and 17 months, the electrification rate of passenger cars was about 34%, and the motorized rate of seat passenger cars with relatively high sales volume was lower. With the cost reduction and technological advancement leading to the economic improvement of passenger cars, it is expected that the electrification rate of passenger cars will be further improved. The long-term incremental space for new energy buses is still large.

New energy vehicles

From the three batches of "New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Vehicle Catalogue" released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology in 2018, new energy vehicles account for 25-35 % of the promotion catalog. According to the type of energy, the new energy vehicles are mainly pure electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles, and pure electric vehicles account for more than 90 % of the total. Among pure electric vehicles, transport vehicles rank first.

The development of new energy transport vehicles is closely related to the prosperity of the express delivery industry. Due to the implementation of restrictions, restrictions, and restrictions on entering the city for fuel trucks in major cities, new energy logistics transport vehicles have gradually become the first choice for urban distribution tools. According to GGII statistics, the domestic output of new energy logistics vehicles in 2017 was 125,000, an increase of 118.8 % year-on-year. It is expected that by 2020, the national output of electric logistics vehicles will reach 206,000 and the market penetration rate will reach 21.9 %.

The good development prospects of new energy logistics transport vehicles have attracted many companies to join the market. In May 2017, the rookie network released ACE's future green smart logistics vehicle plan, which will form the demand for 1 million new energy logistics vehicles. In October 2017, Jingdong Logistics announced that it will unite with many large electric vehicle manufacturers across the country. Test, promote, research and develop, introduce thousands of new energy vehicles, and set up a new energy industry alliance. It plans to replace hundreds of thousands of vehicles in the system with new energy vehicles in the next five years. In addition, the Action Plan for Promoting the Healthy and Stable Development of the Road Freight Industry (2017-2020) issued by the Ministry of Communications clearly states that the state will comprehensively promote the electrification process of urban freight vehicles, and the State Council issued the “Promoting the coordinated development of e-commerce and express logistics. The Opinions encourages the promotion of the use of new energy vehicles in the logistics sector. In addition to the support of national policies, local governments have also proposed the electrification plan for logistics vehicles. According to incomplete statistics, in 2017, 28 provinces and municipalities have clearly defined the operation plan of electric logistics vehicles. It is expected that the electrification of logistics vehicles will further accelerate.

3, New energy vehicle sales and power lithium battery demand forecast

The core technologies of new energy vehicles are mainly power batteries, motors and electronic control technology. Among them, the power battery is the most important core component of electric vehicles. Whether the power battery technology can break through is the key to the development of electric vehicles. The lithium battery is also a kind of battery with mature technology, stable performance and wide application in the current power battery. After synthesizing all parties' data, the Yisanban Research Institute made the following predictions for domestic new energy vehicles and power lithium batteries: to achieve the "double point policy" as the target, from 2018 to 2020, the domestic new energy passenger vehicle sales were 95. 10,000 vehicles, 1.34 million vehicles and 1.84 million vehicles; and it is estimated that the average bicycle power consumption of pure electric passenger vehicles will increase by 10% per year; the proportion of pure electric passenger vehicles to new energy passenger vehicles will increase by 2% per year and remain at 85. The level of %; the average bicycle load of pure electric buses and special vehicles is increased by 5% every year; the average bicycle load of plug-in hybrid passenger cars and buses remains unchanged, and the demand for power batteries from 2018 to 2020 is calculated to be 56.53GWH respectively. 81.15GWH, 114.12GWH, the compound annual growth rate will reach 42%.

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