Development status and market prospects of lithium battery industry

1. The global lithium battery industry competition pattern

Since the world's first commercial lithium-ion battery was introduced to the market by Sony in Japan in 1991, the lithium-ion battery industry has reached its 25th year. After more than 20 years of development, the lithium-ion battery market has grown from scratch, and has surpassed other secondary batteries such as nickel-cadmium batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries to become the second largest secondary battery product after lead-acid batteries. From 1990 to 2012, the output of lithium-ion batteries rapidly increased from 0.5 million kWh (still in trial application in 1990) to 32,343,700 kWh (note: different from domestic statistics), with an average annual compound growth rate of 49%, second only to the 326 million kWh of lead-acid batteries. The annual growth rate of the lithium-ion battery market in the 10 years before 2000 was as high as 70.8%, and the average annual growth rate was 27.1% in the next 10 years.

From 2010 to 2015, the rise of smart phones such as smart phones and tablet PCs and electric vehicles that are more power-hungry than traditional feature phones has driven the rapid development of the lithium-ion battery market and market penetration. By 2015, the global lithium-ion battery production has rapidly increased to 79.217 million kWh, more than three times that of 2010. Such a high-speed growth is particularly rare in a situation where the global economy is generally at a low point.

2. Analysis of the scale of China's lithium battery market

Stimulated by various national support policies, China's new energy vehicle production has grown rapidly. The demand for power lithium-ion batteries will exceed 140 billion watt-hours. Coupled with the demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles, the 2015 power battery the market scale will exceed 25 billion yuan, the market for lithium-ion batteries for IT is about 64 billion yuan, and the market for lithium-ion batteries for energy storage is 3 billion yuan. In 2015, the sales revenue of lithium-ion battery products in China is estimated to be about 92 billion yuan, compared with 2014, increased by more than 28%. Due to the rapid expansion of demand for power batteries, the production capacity of materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate is insufficient. From the third quarter of 2015, material prices have risen rapidly. The call for price increases in battery products is growing. ,

3. Overall situation of lithium battery production in China

Stimulated by various national support policies, China's new energy vehicle production has grown rapidly. The demand for power lithium-ion batteries will exceed 140 billion watt-hours. Coupled with the demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles, the 2015 power battery The market scale will exceed 25 billion yuan, the market for lithium-ion batteries for IT is about 64 billion yuan, and the market for lithium-ion batteries for energy storage is 3 billion yuan. It is estimated that the sales revenue of lithium-ion battery products in China will exceed 92 billion yuan in 2015, compared with 2014. The year will increase by more than 28%. Due to the rapid expansion of demand for power batteries, the production capacity of materials such as lithium carbonate and lithium hexafluorophosphate is insufficient. From the third quarter of 2015, material prices have risen rapidly. The call for price increases in battery products is growing.

5. Development situation of China's lithium battery industry

Since the first commercialization of lithium-ion batteries in Japan in 1991, the market has grown from scratch, surpassing other secondary batteries such as nickel-cadmium batteries and nickel-hydrogen batteries, and has become the second largest secondary to lead-acid batteries, battery products. Lithium-ion batteries have gradually expanded in terms of performance advantages and rapid decline in prices, while demand growth directly led to industry capacity expansion and manufacturing costs, which in turn stimulated further market demand.

The demand for lithium batteries is shifting from the small battery market of consumer electronics to the power battery market of electric vehicles, and the industrial and energy storage markets are also starting. Among them, electric vehicles are represented by electric vehicles and electric bicycles. The industrial and energy storage markets are mainly represented by the mobile communication base station power supply market. The demand for lithium batteries in the electric vehicle market has shown a rapid growth trend, and the demand for lithium batteries in the electric vehicle market will break out in the next five years.

In the electric bicycle market, with the increase in cost performance, lithium batteries have begun to replace lead-acid batteries on a large scale. In 2014, the proportion of new products using lithium batteries in the electric bicycle market accounted for about 20%. It is predicted that the proportion will reach over 95% in 2020. . The electric vehicle market is the biggest driving force for the growth of the lithium battery market in the next five years. In 2014, the demand for lithium batteries for lithium batteries in the total demand for lithium batteries increased rapidly from 6.6% in 2011 to 16.7%, becoming the second only. The second largest segment of lithium-ion batteries for smartphones, according to experts, will reach the largest market segment with a demand of 20.71 million kWh and a market share of 22% in 2016. In 2020, it will surpass the entire consumption with a market share of 31.4%. In the electronic products market, the total demand will exceed 62 million kWh and CAGR will be about 32%.

The mobile communication network is developed from 3G to 4G or even 5G. It requires high-density construction of a large number of small and micro mobile communication base stations in densely populated areas. Lithium batteries are the best choice for such base stations. The application of lithium batteries in the base station power supply market in the next few years. It is expected to develop at a high speed. At the same time, in order to reduce the price of electric vehicles, Nissan, Tesla, General Motors, Mitsubishi Motors, Daimler-Benz, BYD and other well-known car companies have tried to expand or recycle the car battery to develop secondary storage, can market, to reduce the price of car batteries.

Lithium battery is a kind of battery that uses lithium metal or lithium alloy as negative electrode material and uses non-aqueous electrolyte solution. It is the battery with the highest energy density and the best comprehensive performance in secondary battery technology. Its market share has been increasing year by year since its birth upgrade. Compared with other rechargeable batteries, lithium-ion batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high voltage, long life, and no memory effect. Lithium-ion batteries have occupied the main market of consumer electronics products such as mobile phones and notebook computers. In the future, with the further improvement of lithium battery production process and battery performance, it will occupy the main markets in the fields of energy storage batteries and power batteries. In 2016, the output of lithium batteries in China reached 7.842 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%.

Related Report: Research Report on In-depth Research and Investment Strategy of China's Lithium Battery Industry from 2017-2022 released by Zhiyan Consulting

The manufacture of various types of lithium-ion batteries can be divided into four stages: pole piece fabrication, cell assembly, cell activation detection and battery packaging. The pole piece manufacturing process includes agitation, coating, rolling, slitting, sheeting, tab forming, etc. It is the basis of lithium ion battery manufacturing, performance, precision, stability, automation level and production of pole piece manufacturing equipment. The efficiency and other requirements have high requirements; the cell assembly process mainly includes winding or lamination, cell pre-packaging, electrolyte injection and other processes, which require high precision, efficiency and consistency; the cell activation detection process mainly includes electricity. The core packaging process, the volumetric detection, and the like; the battery packaging process includes testing, classifying, serial-parallel combination of the single cells constituting the battery pack, and testing the performance and reliability of the assembled battery. The production process of lithium-ion batteries is complicated, and the production processes of different types of lithium-ion batteries are different, and even the same model but different battery manufacturers use different production processes.

Foreign companies have high precision and high cost. At present, lithium battery equipment in Japan and South Korea is the world's leading position. It has a relatively early start with domestic R&D, high equipment precision, high automation, superior performance, more mature technology and relatively high price. The division of labor is fine, basically all of them are engaged in R&D and manufacturing of single equipment. For example, foreign companies producing lithium electric winding equipment mainly include Japan's Goto, CKD and Koem of South Korea; the companies that produce coating equipment mainly include Toshiba, Fuji, Toray, Hirano; companies that produce slitting equipment mainly include Nishimura in Japan.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.