Four Figures of China Lithium Battery market

The power cell is the core of the development of new energy vehicles. Today, the new energy automotive industry is booming. As one of the three core technologies of new energy vehicles, the power cell has always been the battleground for industrial chain enterprises.

The market value of the power cell industry is estimated to be $240 billion over the next 20 years, and many companies, aiming at huge markets, are willing to invest. At present, China already has more than 140 battery manufacturers. They are all desperately focused on expanding their capacity. To get a head start in this business, get a piece of it.

Many battery companies are struggling to survive

But the vast majority of companies are having a tough time, and it's not clear that they will. The impact of fraud investigation, adjustment of subsidy policies, re-review of new energy vehicle recommended catalogs, and price increases in upstream raw materials, most battery companies 'power battery business was hindered in the first half of the year, resulting in a significant decline in power battery orders and shipments.

Raw material prices rise and costs rise. Since the beginning of this year, cobalt prices have been rising. At the beginning of January, the market quoted an average price of 294,166 yuan per ton. At the end of July, it had reached 39,833 yuan per ton. The prices of other raw materials such as lithium carbonate have also risen but not dropped. The price of three positive materials and negative materials is also on the verge of rising.

Downstream vehicles are pressurized and profits are reduced. In addition, subsidies and the 30,000 km standard have brought huge pressure on new energy vehicle companies. Car companies have demanded that power battery companies in the upper reaches of the industrial chain reduce prices, and the cost pressure has soared. Some people in the industry said that some electric vehicle plants 'price requirements for battery manufacturers in 2017 are 35 % -40 % lower than in 2016.

The energy density requirement is high and the technology is difficult. In addition, in March this year, the four ministries issued the Action Plan for the Development of the Automobile power battery Industry: "By 2020, the new lithium-ion power battery monomer has a power ratio of more than 300 watts/kg; The system strives to reach 260Wh / kg of energy. " This is not a small pressure on many battery companies, and it can even be said that it is difficult to achieve.

Big business price war, tight market. To make matters worse, some big companies will take advantage of the market to seize market share, and some companies will take advantage of the lower subsidy for the next year to sell batteries at lower prices when they sign agreements with car companies to get orders. For small businesses, it has become harder to survive in the competitive power cell market.

In fact, the power battery market has been concentrated, with the top 10 battery manufacturers reaching 74.8 % concentration. It can be said that China's power battery industry "oligopolistic" pattern is forming.

Where will the power cell market imbalance go in the future?

If you want to develop, you must pay attention to these points.

1, master the core technology is the key. The battery is an industry, relying on capital alone is absolutely impossible to play, only the innovation of technology can have inexhaustible power. To continuously innovate and improve battery performance and meet the development needs of new-energy vehicles, we must strive to increase energy density while strengthening power density and power type batteries.

2, ahead of schedule, ahead of the layout of the power battery market, to build their own competitive brand. Power batteries belong to the heavy asset industry. It takes at least five years to buy land, build factories, and put into production. During this time, the market can have many changes. To correctly understand the market and layout the future development strategy, we can seize the opportunity.

3, strengthen the in-depth cooperation between the upstream and downstream. The production capacity of the power cell is necessarily the digestion of the downstream market. Therefore, the power battery company needs to maintain closer strategic cooperation with the vehicle factory in order to ensure the digestion of production capacity. For auto companies, in order to stabilize upstream supply, they will also actively cultivate supply chains that meet their own requirements. And the impact of foreign battery companies can already be foreseen, vehicle factories and battery companies must cooperate more closely in order to cope with future market turmoil.

4, the establishment of industrial chains and industrial clusters. A large part of the pressure on battery companies is due to disharmony with materials and vehicle companies. Battery plants need to pull out a number of material industries, including this positive material, negative material, diaphragm, electrolyte, manufacturing, equipment and so on. There is no development in buying a little here or a little there.

1, lithium battery market size

Affected by the continuous and rapid expansion of the new energy vehicle market, demand for lithium-ion power batteries in China has soared in the past two years, and power batteries have gradually become the dominant force for the growth of the lithium battery industry. In 2016, the lithium-ion battery industry continued its rapid development. According to statistics from industry websites, the output value of lithium battery cores in China reached 83.2 billion yuan in 2015, up 38 % from 2014, and will reach 103.2 billion yuan in 2016 due to the influence of power terminals. The growth is mainly powered by lithium batteries. It is estimated that the output value of lithium battery cores in China will reach 144.8 billion yuan by 2018.

China Lithium Battery Market Size and Growth 2011-2018(Billions of yuan, %)

China Lithium Battery Market in 2016

2, lithium battery production

In the first half of 2016, the output of two major applications for lithium-ion batteries -- mobile phones and electric cars -- showed rapid growth to varying degrees. China's mobile phone production reached 966 million units in the first half of the year, up 23.3 percent year-on-year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The rapid growth of production of major downstream products has driven the demand for lithium-ion batteries to soar, reversing the continuous decline in the growth rate of lithium-ion batteries. According to industry website statistics, the output of lithium batteries in China in the first half of 2016 was 28.15 GWH, an increase of 30.5 % year-on-year. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the demand for lithium-ion power batteries will continue to grow rapidly. It is expected that the annual lithium battery output will reach 62.34 GWH, and China's lithium battery ratio will be expected to exceed 3C batteries as the largest application. China's lithium-ion battery market is expected to reach 102.68 GWH by 2018, with 25 % compound growth in the next three years.

Yields and growth rate of lithium batteries in China 2011-2018(GWH, %)

China Lithium Battery Market in 2016

3, lithium battery three major application terminals

Judging from the three major consumer terminals of lithium batteries, the growth of power lithium batteries is the fastest. In 2015, China's output of power lithium batteries was 16.9 GHH, which more than tripled year-on-year, and the growth rate far exceeds that of the other two major terminals. In the first half of 2016, China's power lithium battery production is about 12.64 GWH. It is expected that by 2016, China's low power battery production will reach 29.39 GWH, exceeding 3C battery production and becoming the largest consumer end. Power batteries will be China's lithium batteries. The largest driving engine in the next three years. Power cells are gradually transitioning from the import period to the high-speed growth period.

In 2015, the demand for lithium batteries in the 3C consumer electronics sector totaled 25.37 GWh, an increase of 17.64 % year-on-year, accounting for 54.52 %. However, the growth rate has been gradually slowing down, and the growth rate will remain at about 5 % in the next three years. During the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, energy storage was included in the "13th Five-Year Plan" planning of the top 100 projects, with great development potential. However, due to technology, policies and other reasons, lithium battery applications are still in the market introduction phase, relative to power batteries. The lag,. In 2015, China's output of lithium battery storage capacity was about 3GWH, an increase of 45.8 % year-on-year. In the future, as the technology matures, the energy storage market will also become another pole to drive lithium battery consumption. It is estimated that the output of lithium storage batteries in China in 2016 will be 3.79 GWH.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.