Fuel cell VS lithium batteries, who's better?

People believe that the two technologies, fuel cells, and lithium cells, may coexist for a long time in the future and there is not a complete alternative relationship. Because fuel cell and lithium cell technology have complementary technical defects, user needs and experience complement each other. On the other hand, the joint operation of fuel cells and lithium cells can extend the life of fuel cells. Sources explained that the fuel cell vehicles currently on the market are basically equipped with fuel cells and lithium batteries, namely hydrogen fuel cells equipped with small lithium batteries / nickel-metal hydrogen batteries. The presence of lithium/nickel-metal hydride cells can make the operating power of fuel cells at a stable level for a long period of time, which is conducive to extending the service life of fuel cells.

It only takes 3-5 minutes to add gas. The mileage is comparable to that of a fuel truck, and it will not affect the mileage at low temperatures. Fuel cell vehicles have many performance advantages that lithium battery vehicles cannot achieve. People seem to see a better choice than fuel and electric vehicles. More importantly, the state policy has also begun to favor fuel cells. In 2018, the official version of the new energy subsidy policy was formally implemented. In the context of the gradual reduction of state subsidies for electric vehicles, subsidies for fuel cell buses and logistics vehicles have not been reduced. Several local cities also confirmed local subsidies for fuel cells in June, and the city is expected to step up the introduction and implementation of local subsidies for fuel cells.

How long will the fuel cell car era be under the continued positive stimulus of policy? Zhengjieying, a senior analyst at changing capital, believes that the two technologies, fuel cells and lithium cells, may coexist for a long time in the future and there is not a complete alternative relationship. Because fuel cell and lithium cell technology have complementary technical defects, user needs and experience complement each other. On the other hand, the joint operation of fuel cells and lithium cells can extend the life of fuel cells. Zhengjieying explained that the fuel cell vehicles currently on the market are basically equipped with fuel cells and lithium batteries, namely hydrogen fuel cells equipped with small lithium batters/nickel-metal hydride batteries. The presence of lithium/nickel-metal hydride cells can make the operating power of fuel cells at a stable level for a long period of time, which is conducive to extending the service life of fuel cells.

At present, there are 30 listed companies in China that have made layout on the fuel cell car industry chain. Among them, PetroChina and Sinopec have already stated that the layout of hydrogen station construction is to solve the biggest obstacle to the development of fuel cell vehicles. The number of gas stations is insufficient. In the construction of hydrogen refueling stations, the main advantages of the "two barrels of oil" come from resources and sales terminals. Based on the number of 20,000 PetroChina and 30,000 Sinopec refueling(gas) stations, the construction of China's hydrogen refueling stations in the future will be expected to increase. Speed up.

Fuel cell market size is expected to reach 100 billion

Fuel cells are devices that convert the chemical energy of renewable energy such as hydrogen and oxygen into electrical energy. Among them, the electric reactor is the power source of the fuel cell, and the difference in the performance of the electric reactor directly determines the output power of the fuel cell.

For new energy batteries, lithium batteries input/output electrical energy, in fact, the input electrical energy is first stored, and when it is used, it is output through the output device.

Therefore, fuel cells are power generators and lithium cells are energy storage devices.

Judging from the number of megawatts shipped from various regions of the world, the fuel cell market in North America and Asia is currently in a competitive situation. In 17 years, North America's shipment of megawatts is even higher than in Asia (North America: 325.5 MWvs Asia: 303 MW).

Although North American fuel cell shipments are far lower than in Asia, because North American fuel cells are mainly used in large-scale power generation, the monomer power is higher.

At the same time, in terms of shipments from all regions of the world, Asia accounted for about 78 % of global fuel cell shipments in 17 years, reaching 57,000 units.

Asian shipments are mainly driven by Japan and South Korea. Japanese Toyota still maintains its 2020 fuel cell vehicle shipment target of 30,000 vehicles; Honda and Hyundai have also started selling fuel cell models on a small scale, but it may be difficult to reach mass production by 2020.

Commonly used fuel cells can be divided into proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFC), solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC), molten carbonate fuel cells (MCFC), phosphate fuel cells (PAFC) and alkaline fuel cells according to their electrolytes. (AFC).

Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) has a variety of performance advantages, including low battery operating temperature and fast start speed; At the same time, it is widely used in the transportation and mobile fields, so the global shipment of proton exchange membrane fuel cells and the number of gigawatts shipped occupy a dominant position.

From the point of view of shipments, since PEMFC is mainly used in the automotive field, it is difficult to release several major fuel cell models downstream in the short term. Therefore, PEMFC shipments in 17 years are basically the same as 16 years.

Judging from the number of megawatts shipped, PEMFC's single power generation has increased significantly since 2012, from 1.7 KW/set for 12 years to 10.7 KW/set for 17 years.

Overview of various fuel cell indicators and application areas

So how many fuel cell cars are there in China?

According to the data, in 2017, a total of 22 fuel cell commercial vehicles from 10 auto companies entered the newly released recommended catalogue of the year, and the maximum number of models was urban passenger cars.

In 2017, the output of commercial fuel cell vehicles in China was 1,226 vehicles, of which the largest production model was a logistics vehicle, and the largest production company of logistics vehicles was Dongfeng Company. The largest production company of ordinary passenger cars was SAIC Chase, and the largest production company of bus buses was Foshan.

People concerned believe that the government and bus companies, as the largest buyer of lithium battery vehicles in the past three years, are currently unlikely to pay for the promotion of fuel cell buses again immediately. Therefore, in the future, the fuel cell vehicle field is still based on the production of logistics vehicles. Become dominant.

At the same time, with the increase in fuel cell vehicle production and single power, the market size is expected to reach 100 billion.

The assumptions are based on the following: according to the "Roadmap for Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technologies" issued in November 2017, our country's fuel cell vehicle development target for 2020/2025/2030 is 5,000 / 50,000 / 1,000,000 vehicles, respectively.

According to the visit, the monomer power of our country's combustion and electric power system basically stays at the level of 30KW at present. Each combustion and electric power system company has focused on the development of 60KW system and is committed to the next 2-3 years of listing and popularization. Chuangfeng Capital expects that in 2025, the power of the Chinese fuel system will reach the current level of the fuel system loaded by Toyota Mirai, reaching 100KW; In 2030, there will still be a small increase in technology, reaching 120KW.

The current cost of our country's fuel and electricity system stays at 1.15-15 million yuan / KW, and Chuangfeng Capital expects the unit cost of the fuel and electricity system to drop to 0.9 / 0.5 / 0.2 million yuan in 2020/2025 / 2030.

Fuel cell vs lithium cells: the future may coexist for a long time and there is not a complete substitution relationship

So what are the main incentives that are already holding back the hundreds of billions of dollars of market-sized fuel cell markets that are poised to go up?

At present, the driving factors of the development of the fuel cell industry mainly include: policy support, state subsidies do not go downhill, and local subsidies follow up; The mileage is basically comparable to that of a fuel truck; Short charging time (3-5 minutes); The low temperature does not affect its mileage.

Other technical requirements of the above policy include: passenger vehicle fuel cell system rated power is not less than 10KW, and commercial vehicle fuel cell system rated power is not less than 30KW. Fuel cell vehicles have a pure electric range of no less than 300 kilometers.

While the state subsidy policy is clear, local subsidy standards are also being followed. A number of local cities have confirmed local subsidy policies for fuel cells in June. Chuangfeng Capital believes that with the formal implementation of the 18-year subsidy New Deal, the city will also step up the introduction and implementation of local subsidy policies for fuel cells.

After national policy, we go back to the advantages of fuel cell cars.

The first is mileage. According to the current mainstream FCV parameters in the world, the current FCV range is basically stable at 300km -700km; Toyota Mirai, as the technical representative of fuel cells, has a range of more than 600km to 650km, which is basically comparable to fuel trucks. The range of pure electric vehicles installed in lithium iron phosphate batteries is basically stable between 100km and 300km; Tesla modelS has a maximum range of 480 km.

Lithium battery energy density improvement has been faced with technical bottleneck, the range of the upgrade space is very limited.

Check the charging time again. Take TeslaModels as an example of ternary battery technology, and it takes 75 minutes to fill it. This charging method has greater damage to the battery, which may shorten the battery life and require a current of up to 192A (the first 40 minutes are filled with 192A 80 %, and the next 35 minutes require the use of low current retention batteries). If the electric vehicle is popularized on a large scale and the charging speed is taken into account, the power grid will bear greater pressure.

In contrast, the fuel cell's inflatable time is basically the same as the fuel truck's refueling time, eliminating the user experience of waiting for a long time to charge.

However, fuel cells also use short plates, which can not be "recharged" at home and can only go to the hydrogenation station for gas.

And finally, low temperature. Lithium battery's range performance is greatly affected by low temperature / high temperature. The average mileage of lithium batteries is 169km at 23 °C, but when the temperature drops to minus 6 °C, the average mileage decreases by 60 % to 68km, and the average mileage decreases by 33 % when the temperature rises to 35 °C. To 113km.

The fuel cell essentially guarantees the performance of the battery in a low-temperature environment, so that the range of endurance is basically not affected by the temperature outside the boundary.

And finally, low temperature. Lithium battery's range performance is greatly affected by low temperature / high temperature. The average mileage of lithium batteries is 169km at 23 °C, but when the temperature drops to minus 6 °C, the average mileage decreases by 60 % to 68km, and the average mileage decreases by 33 % when the temperature rises to 35 °C. To 113km.

The fuel cell essentially guarantees the performance of the battery in a low-temperature environment, so that the range of endurance is basically not affected by the temperature outside the boundary.

At present, the main obstacles to the development of fuel cells in China are as follows:

First, the fuel cell models launched by the Japanese brand have obvious advantages over other national brands in terms of mileage, mainly because:

1) High power of fuel cell electric reactor; 2) Higher quality hydrogen storage; 3) Light weight of the car.

The route of fuel cell in China started late, and it has no advantage over Japan, South Korea and Europe in technology accumulation and industrial chain paving. According to the visit, the power of the fuel cell electric reactor in China is low, and it is currently between 30-60 kW.

Secondly, it is difficult to share the high cost of the actual life of domestic fuel cells, which has become one of the important factors that restrict the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles.

Fuel cell systems are expected to reach their life expectancy target of 5000 hours by 2020, according to data released by the U.S. Energy Agency. With high air purity, Toyota has successfully tested its fuel cell electric reactor life of 10,000 hours.

Back in China, the car fuel cell system now has a life span of only 1000-2500 hours. At the same time, the cost of our fuel cell system is about 1-1 .5 million yuan/kw; For a 30-kw vehicle, the cost of its fuel cell system is as high as 30-450 ,000 yuan, and the total vehicle cost is nearly one million.

The car is on the road, it is an inevitable problem to air up. China's insufficient number of hydrogenation stations, and in the short term it is difficult to rapidly increase the number, which also caused huge obstacles to the development of the industry.

By May 2018, the number of hydrogenation stations in operation in China had reached 12, an increase of four since the end of 2017. Although another 19 hydrogen stations are currently under planning, the current density of hydrogen stations is still not enough to support the commercialization of fuel cell vehicles. The high construction and operation costs and the lack of domestic core equipment make it difficult to increase the number of hydrogenation stations in the short term.

The low density of hydrogen stations in China makes commercial vehicles the primary promotion route for fuel cells, but it is difficult for the government and bus companies to pay for fuel cell buses again in the short term.

Finally, the lack of industrial chain support and the low localization rate of key equipment/components make fuel cell systems and hydrogen stations costly. In general, the cost of electric reactors accounts for about 60 % of the cost of the electric system. Since many components in fuel cell systems(such as air compressors) can not be made domestically, Ballard needs to import to complete the production of the fuel cell systems under sale in China. The high import cost of compressed power reactors accounts for only 30 % of the cost. At present, the cost of our system is as high as 1-15 ,000 / kW.

In summary, the two technologies, fuel cells and lithium cells, may coexist for a long time in the future and there is not a complete alternative relationship. Because fuel cell and lithium cell technology have complementary technical defects, user needs and experience complement each other. On the other hand, the joint operation of fuel cells and lithium cells can extend the life of fuel cells. Zhengjieying explained that the fuel cell vehicles currently on the market are basically equipped with fuel cells and lithium batteries, namely hydrogen fuel cells equipped with small lithium batters/nickel-metal hydride batteries. The presence of lithium/nickel-metal hydride cells can make the operating power of fuel cells at a stable level for a long period of time, which is conducive to extending the service life of fuel cells.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.