Will the fuel cell replace the lithium battery?

The so-called new energy vehicle "Three Musketeers" refers to three different power modes of fuel cell, hybrid and pure electric. Since the beginning of this year, the "Tesla" whirlwind of pure electric mode has swept the world. Domestic BYD "Qin" and other self-owned hybrid vehicles are also booming. It seems that in the "Three Musketeers", only the performance of fuel cells is slightly cold.

At the Beijing Auto Show currently being held, a number of new models of dazzling fuel cells have become the “stars” of the show. This situation reminds people that the marketization of fuel cell vehicles is gradually approaching. A-share market fuel cell concept stocks, mainly including SAIC Group, which is developing fuel cell vehicles; holding companies of fuel cell companies, such as Jiangsu Sunshine, the major shareholder of Shenli Technology, and Great Wall Electric and Nandu Power, which hold Xinyuan Power; Other related companies in the industrial chain, such as Huachang Chemical, which is related to the reducing agent "Sodium Borohydride", and Chemet Gas, which has the hydrogen supply capacity.

"Fuel cells are actually the reverse chemical reaction of electrolyzed water. Hydrogen and oxygen synthesize water to produce electricity. In theory, fuel cells can be used as long as electricity is used." In an interview with Securities Times, Shenli Technology Deputy General Manager Zhang Ruogu used this as an opening statement. It is understood that the company's research and development and industrialization of hydrogen proton exchange membrane fuel cells as the main direction, involving a variety of different uses of fuel cell products, Jiangsu Sunshine, Fosun Pharma holds 31%, 5% of the shares .

Although there are many applicable fields, the commercial application of domestic fuel cells is not simple. In addition to the enthusiastic conception of automobile manufacturers for fuel cell vehicles, the development of fuel cells in other fields is still relatively slow. At present, factors such as high cost of hydrogen refueling stations, lack of supporting parts, and difficulty in copying foreign samples are still the main reasons why fuel cells are difficult to commercialize in the Chinese market.

Fuel cell cars are coming out

At this Beijing Auto Show, the new Roewe 950 new plug-in fuel cell sedan released by SAIC Group is quite interesting. The snow-white streamlined body, with a transparent material bonnet, fully displays the car's internal power system, attracting a lot of viewers. The biggest highlight of this new car is the dual power system with battery and fuel cell. It is mainly based on hydrogen fuel cell and supplemented by battery. It can charge the battery through the city network power system. It is reported that SAIC Group will realize small-scale production of fuel cell vehicles in 2015.

In general, the hybrid of new energy vehicles refers to the combination of internal combustion power and electric power, while SAIC adopts fuel cell + electric mode, which is a new attempt. According to the general manager of the new energy technology department of SAIC Group, the design is based on the need to use the fuel cell at full load and full power consumption when the fuel cell vehicle accelerates. The power required is very large, the cost is high, and the life expectancy is also reduced. . Plug-in fuel cell vehicles can guarantee lower costs, but because of the two systems, the cost is still higher than ordinary electric vehicles.

In addition, Toyota also showed an FCV concept car equipped with a hydrogen fuel cell at the auto show. It is understood that Toyota plans to launch a number of fuel cell cars in Japan, the United States and Europe in 2015, and hopes that the annual sales of this model will exceed 10,000 by 2020. In terms of cost, Toyota has said that due to advances in technology, the cost of this car has been reduced by about 95% compared with the early prototype.

In addition, Honda plans to launch a fuel cell car with a battery life of about 500 kilometers in 2015, with a sales target of 5,000 units sold in five years; BMW has also been committed to the development of fuel cell vehicles; Hyundai has also introduced new fuel cell models. There is a mass production plan; Mercedes-Benz Motors plans to introduce a new hydrogen fuel cell vehicle in 2017.

From the research and development results and mass production plans of these car companies, 2015 will become the first year of marketization of fuel cells and hydrogen energy vehicles.

Lack of obstacles

"In fact, cars are a difficult one in the industrialization of fuel cells." Ruogu Zhang told reporters, "On the one hand, the technical requirements of fuel cells for automobiles are very high, and it is necessary to meet the requirements of small size, good performance, fast response, etc. On the other hand, it is necessary to build a matching hydrogen refueling station, and foreign countries have also invested a lot of money in this respect." In this regard, an international hydrogen energy society expert said that the hydrogen filling station is the largest development of fuel cell vehicles constraints. As a necessary supporting facility, the distribution of the hydrogen refueling station determines whether the fuel cell vehicle can be put into use after production. According to the data, as of the end of 2013, the number of hydrogen refueling stations put into use worldwide reached 208, and more than 100 were under construction. These hydrogen refueling stations are mainly distributed in areas with early distribution of hydrogenation networks such as Europe, America and Japan, while the domestic market is relatively backward. There is only one hydrogen refueling station in Beijing and Shanghai.

Xinyuan Power Business Department Mr. Ji believes that in 2015, the industry is regarded as the first year of fuel cell vehicle marketization, and it is not unrelated to a certain number of hydrogen refueling stations built abroad. Xinyuan Power is the first fuel cell joint-stock enterprise in China. It is committed to the research and development of fuel cells for vehicles and has provided power systems for fuel cell vehicles of SAIC. The company said that the use of automobiles as the focus of fuel cells is due to the fact that China's automobile industry has a large total and rapid growth rate, and the demand for new energy technologies is more urgent. On the other hand, the technology is mature and can be applied to fuel cells commercialization of cars.

In addition, the reporter learned that in addition to supporting hydrogenation facilities, the lack of supporting parts for fuel cells is also one of the obstacles. It has been confirmed by two fuel cell companies that the upstream and downstream fuel cell industry chains in China are not yet complete, and some unique components are difficult to find, which also increases the difficulty of commercializing fuel cells. This problem is currently not fully resolved abroad.

In terms of cost, many companies said that it is difficult to discuss the cost of fuel cells in China due to the fact that various components have not been commercialized. In the future, the scale of production will bring a large space for price reduction, and as technology advances and the proportion of precious metals is reduced, the cost of fuel cells will gradually decrease. But overall, due to higher technical requirements, the cost of fuel cells is difficult to drop rapidly.

US and Japan path is difficult to copy

In addition to cars, there are many other commercialization paths for fuel cells. In the United States and Japan, this technology has formed a certain market size through other application methods. However, the reporter visited and learned that the commercialization path tried by the United States and Japan is currently difficult to imitate in China, and there is no relevant incentive policy.

The US fuel cell company Prager, known as the second bull stock after Tesla, has soared several times this year. In the first quarter of this year, Prager received a large order from Wal-Mart and signed a six-year service contract to supply fuel cells for electric forklifts at six distribution centers in Wal-Mart North America. Because the fuel cell has zero emission and pollution-free characteristics, it is suitable for indoor forklifts, and it does not need to be charged for a long time, can be quickly replenished and continuously used, so it has certain competitive advantages.

However, fuel cell forklifts are not currently available in China. Mengqing Zhang, the domestic forklift leader of Anhui Heli, told reporters that the current domestic electric forklifts account for a relatively low proportion and are not as popular as foreign countries. According to industry insiders, there are two main reasons for the gap: First, domestic exhaust gas emissions are strictly prohibited as in some developed countries; second, domestic companies are very sensitive to the price of production tools. According to Mengqing Zhang, "The domestic electric forklifts are mainly lead-acid batteries and the battery accounts for about 1/4 of the total cost of the vehicle; if lithium batteries are used, the cost of the forklifts may exceed 50%." Lithium battery forklifts are still hindered by higher costs, and fuel cells with higher cost are more difficult to be accepted by the domestic forklift market.

Japan's household cogeneration system is to use domestic natural gas after reforming it into hydrogen. It is reported that the fuel cell will generate electricity and heat at the same time in the working process. While fuel water heaters are heating water, the generated electricity is directly connected to the power grid, and it is purchased at a high price. Coupled with the government's large subsidies, the number of households using such fuel cell water heaters in Japan has reached more than 20,000 in 2012. According to industry insiders, although this kind of water heater can greatly improve energy efficiency, the price is as high as 200,000 RMB, and there is no small natural gas reformer available in China at present, so it does not have industrialization conditions.

On the whole, the marketization of fuel cells in China has yet to start. On the one hand, hydrogen energy vehicles are still in the “concept car” stage; on the other hand, in other application areas, it is difficult for fuel cells to achieve large-scale and commercial applications in the short term. Regarding the future prospects of fuel cells in China, Ruogu Zhang said: "It is not to say which kind of thing is better, or which market is better. It should be said that the right one is the best." Fuel cells are still looking for more suitable commercialization path.

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