PHOTOVOLTAIC industry development of the good and bad are intermingled Importance will be growing in overseas markets

Recently, the national development and reform commission, ministry of finance and the national energy bureau jointly issued PHOTOVOLTAIC subsidy slope and scale control of the new rules, new power around industry development based on the actual requirements, temporarily not arrange 2018 ordinary PHOTOVOLTAIC power station construction scale, at the same time to speed up the PHOTOVOLTAIC subsidies slope, reduce the subsidies. News, PHOTOVOLTAIC industry, various types of PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) stock green word pledge.

Subsequently, the national energy administration new energy department respectively with the representatives of some enterprises and relevant industry association held a symposium. On the afternoon of June 11, held a press conference of the national bureau of energy in the form of a reporter asked the response to the PHOTOVOLTAIC industry hot spot issues of concern. The market is still waiting for more details added policy and fall to the ground, however, policy also has a precedent. The national energy administration said when a reporter asked, in the process of establishing policy research, using the experience of the countries such as Germany, Spain, Czech republic. Combined with Germany and other countries the development of the industry experience, the "PHOTOVOLTAIC weaning" actually shows the industry department in charge of national concern and long-term development of the domestic PHOTOVOLTAIC optimism. The Chinese renewable energy industry can be prejudge the situation in the countries such as Germany's experience, and actively respond.

Recent worries

Short-term domestic PHOTOVOLTAIC industry reshuffle of of all kinds enterprise on the PHOTOVOLTAIC industry chain will be affected by how?

On June 4, after the first trading day of the New Deal, PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) shares tumbled, shares fell 15%, capital markets lose confidence in PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV).At the same time, due to the energy sector PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) belongs to the high demand for capital, part of the current financial and rental agency for PHOTOVOLTAIC project financing and PHOTOVOLTAIC business loans receivable in advance or suspend lending, corporate pressure surge. In the user side, the policy after landing, a lot of engineering is unsustainable and some projects have been halted, part of the household PHOTOVOLTAIC power station users want to return, a refund, a lot of disputes. 's rein scale also involve personnel engaged in PHOTOVOLTAIC distribution, wholesale, installation, Some PHOTOVOLTAIC enterprises can not receive business for at least half a year, the company faces the crisis, some companies have already plans to cut.

Energy consultants and industry experts, meanwhile, also for the prediction of the PHOTOVOLTAIC capacity after the New Deal, said PHOTOVOLTAIC market will be in the shrinking. According to the electric power research institute GTM Research investigation, after slope scale control and subsidies, it adds new PV capacity in China is forecast to fall from 48 gw to 28.8 gw, reduced by 40%.Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie expects this year's new capacity will be reduced by 20 gw, drop to 30 gw, other forecasts show PV capacity approaching 35 gw in 2018.In contrast, since the fourth quarter of 2016, China PV industry achieved high growth for five consecutive quarters. In 2017, the scale of China's new PHOTOVOLTAIC reach 53 gw, year-on-year growth of 53.6%, accounting for nearly 54% of the global PHOTOVOLTAIC installations. Given China's PHOTOVOLTAIC industry status in the whole world, it is expected in the short term and corresponding global PV market will blow.

As early as four years ago, the German PHOTOVOLTAIC feed-in tariff slope has also affect local PHOTOVOLTAIC industry, the local enterprise performance and how? And China face similar, early feed-in tariff in Germany also promotes the development of PHOTOVOLTAIC roof, but with the development of PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) grid faster than Germany and energy markets are speed, users also need to bear the high subsidies, so the German federal government decided to reduce subsidies feed-in tariff. Subsidies slope significantly slows down the door with the growth of the PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV), Germany from 2009 to 2013, Germany every year around 7 gigawatts of new PHOTOVOLTAIC power capacity. Subsidies pilot slope, bidding, 2014 to 2016 in the national implementation of bidding mode, between three years from 2015 to 2017, an annual increase of PHOTOVOLTAIC power capacity is about 1.5 gw, only about one 5 of the peak.

As Germany to phase out subsidies, coupled with PHOTOVOLTAIC products into Chinese market, Germany large PHOTOVOLTAIC enterprise bankruptcy. GehrlicherSolar was Germany's main PHOTOVOLTAIC  components distributor, the company's revenue was $415 million in 2011, but by 2013, they have filed for bankruptcy. German manufacturers of PHOTOVOLTAIC panels Q - Cells2005 income reached 299.4 million euros, even when engaged in the PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) EPC company Conergy sales also rose by 132% in 2004, in spite of this, the two companies did not resist subsidies slope tide, filed for bankruptcy in 2012 and 2012 respectively. Such momentum spread all the way, Germany's leading PHOTOVOLTAIC enterprises such as Solon, Sovello,  Odersun companies such as bankruptcy, in succession in the last year, Germany's largest PHOTOVOLTAIC enterprise Solarworld company is declared bankrupt.

In the second half of this year, there is no core technology and cost advantage of small manufacturing enterprises, will face the dangerous environment. On a small scale PHOTOVOLTAIC enterprises and knocked out backward production capacity or is accelerated, and PHOTOVOLTAIC industry or usher in a wave of small enterprises "failures".

Optimistic

Medium and long term will be benign and healthy development of PHOTOVOLTAIC industry, accelerate the parity on the Internet, the importance of the overseas market will be growing.

In recent years, the good and bad are intermingled of PV industry development has been the industry and the social from all walks of life common interest topics, distributed in PHOTOVOLTAIC power station on the ground and quality also has a large gap. China distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC explosive growth in the past two years, at the end of 2017 with PV installed more than 500000 households across the country, installed capacity of more than 2 gw. But household PHOTOVOLTAIC products, installation, lack of interconnection standards, credit certificate, product quality and after-sales service is uneven, some dealers, installer shoddy, installation operation is not standard, power generation efficiency is not up to standard, even it is difficult to guarantee security. PHOTOVOLTAIC industry, on the other hand, the "expenses", such as the 2013 golden sun project expenses amount to two hundred million, also makes the industry. Some enterprises use the name "PHOTOVOLTAIC poverty alleviation", claiming he could give the villagers free installation PV projects, but in fact is to defraud PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) loans, there are enterprises using PHOTOVOLTAIC poverty alleviation pyramid selling, many provinces and cities in the PHOTOVOLTAIC "borrowed" the new scheme. National energy administration, therefore, in the June 11, a reporter asked also pointed out that under the stimulation of market growth, PHOTOVOLTAIC manufacturing companies to expand capacity, make the PHOTOVOLTAIC manufacturing overcapacity, and the power station construction quality problems have appeared. Through subsidies slope and control is to arouse endogenous dynamic of enterprise development, reversed transmission enterprise internal work practice, strong physique, realize the PHOTOVOLTAIC industry evolution, accelerate the backward production capacity, reversed transmission industry technology progress, to curb irrational expansion of the enterprise, promote the industry resources to concentrate in high quality enterprise.

Back to look at German PV subsidy, feed-in tariff slope, tendering and bidding mechanism is in good operation, at the same time a large utility companies began to dominate the project development of new growth. According to John nass ur, an energy strategist at the German international cooperation agency, "in the past, users could install solar power anywhere they wanted, and don't need to have competitive price subsidies, but now you have to pass the bidding, after winning the bid, the company will have the installation capacity and the corresponding renewable subsidy".

He pointed out that in this case, Large-scale PHOTOVOLTAIC power stations are easier to reduce costs, enterprises need to invest more in the early stage, auction mechanism for large utility is more popular. Germany's energy transformation plan includes a year need to add about 2.5 gw PV installed targets, now more than half of growth from the utility of solar projects.As of January 1, 2017, Germany 750 kw or more renewable energy projects are by means of bid invitation and bidding mechanism to get funding, while the subsidies are still provided by renewable energy surcharge, but the purpose of bidding is to reduce the overall cost by increasing competition. In February 2018, the German PHOTOVOLTAIC bidding price is lower than 4 cents for the first time, this means that the parity with the Internet age has come.

Now Germany still perform online electricity price subsidies household PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV), power grid companies continue to pay the existing PHOTOVOLTAIC device family agreed rate, some rates can be as high as 0.52 euros per KWH. New roof installation, however, more than 100 kilowatts of PHOTOVOLTAIC system, rate only between 0.0884 euros to 0.1260 euros, and according to the size of the system, the general tariff only between 0.01061 to 0.01220 euros per KWH,'s appeal to the German does not. Because of new PHOTOVOLTAIC power generation is still lower than target forecast, the feed-in tariff in the past stays the same.

Subsidies for the PHOTOVOLTAIC slope, ur think Germany in the process of transformation needs to keep the good operation of the energy system as a whole, it also means greater market flexibility. "Energy storage, gas steam cycle power generation units, demand response and other technology such as energy efficiency investment demand is increasing.Decided to subsidies where must be considered in investment efficiency, because of subsidies from the public, so need more reasonable configuration, "he said.

In the face of the domestic market squeeze pressure, the personage inside course of study and institutions, the researchers said will pay more attention to overseas pv business, from the point of the global market, PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) still has great potential for development. Bloomberg new energy finance (BNEF) forecasts suggest that global PHOTOVOLTAIC installations may first appeared in 2018 year-on-year decline, but new demand will rebound sharply in 2019, more than 98 gw in 2017.PV modules competitive price will bring benefit to India and Australia. BNEF think PHOTOVOLTAIC New Deal will affect the supply chain, component prices throughout the year is expected to fall 34%, Polycrystalline components could drop as low as 24 cents per watt.

In the Chinese market, there are still bullish on the Chinese market the development of distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC enterprises. Since 2015, Siemens in China began to layout distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC industry and commerce, mainly provide grid services, is currently in Shanghai, Suzhou, respectively, both have installed capacity of 300 kw and 1.04 mw of distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC roof project, have been formally interconnection. Siemens (China) co., LTD. Executive vice President and greater China, Siemens energy management group general manager Michael Octavia, said long-term still bullish on the development of distributed PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV), it has its own unique advantages, such as cover an area of an area small. Now both tariffs and subsidies slope, even without the support of subsidies, the industry also will continue to develop. By 2030, Siemens so as to realize the goal of carbon neutrality, and the development of PHOTOVOLTAIC (PV) is a good solution.

Solar energy or some other energy, a start to enter the market is indeed need subsidies to develop slowly, and let them grow up in the middle of the competition. But develop to a certain degree, there will be withdrawal mechanism. Fostered it is the purpose of subsidies, and once you have the competitive power, to withdraw from them, "said Michael Octavia.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.