What is the capacity of China's power lithium battery in 2018?

The strategic planning, technical route, and capacity deployment of the CR10 enterprise have fully demonstrated that the strength of capital and market expansion will be used to promote the formation of the industry. Maintain industry overweight rating. The square has become main stream, and the proportion of soft packs has increased rapidly. At the end of 2018, the total production capacity of the whole industry will reach 182GWH. According to our industry analysis, the square production capacity reaches 93.5GWh, the cylindrical production capacity is 50.5GWh and the soft package capacity reaches 38GWh, accounting for 51%, 28% and 21% respectively.

1. Square production capacity accounted for half, has become the most important technical route, capacity expansion rate reached 36%, square enterprises' production capacity is mainly concentrated in CATL, BYD, Guoxuan, Lishen, etc., only these four production capacity in 2018 Up to 71.5GWh, accounting for 85.6%, up 4% year-on-year.

2. The cylinder is undergoing technical upgrades. The cylindrical plant has the highest capacity base, and its main expansion is shifting from 18650 to 21700. The overall growth rate has slowed down.

3. Soft pack batteries rise rapidly due to high energy density, but due to the high technical threshold, the technical principle of square and cylinder is quite different. Therefore, the expansion is mainly concentrated in soft pack leading enterprises such as Fueng, and the overall production capacity is 38GWh. The production capacity of Guoneng and Kaina reached 13GWh/13GWh/5.8GWh, respectively, accounting for nearly one point higher than the same period of last year. The effects of industrial clusters have been highlighted. Enterprises represented by giants such as CATL, Guoxuan, BYD, Lishen, etc., by strengthening the production capacity and technology research and development of more than 10 domestic mainstream battery companies, are strengthening the technology research and development on high-power nickel ternary lithium battery, on the other hand strengthening Supporting the production capacity of the base of the car company, reducing the transportation radius and effectively reducing the cost, and achieving a tight supply capacity.

Industrial clusters have laid the foundation for the market, and future industrial competitions will win in well-established enterprises. The lithium battery industry cluster base and supporting construction around the car factory are underway. Beiqi supply chain: CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Fueng Technology, Pride and so on. Beiqi New Energy Automobile Manufacturing Base is Daxing Mining Town, and Pride is a core pack supplier in the same industrial zone. The battery company that is currently entering the supply system is investing in the production of power lithium batteries in Shunyi District, closely surrounding the production capacity of BAIC New Energy. Others such as CATL and SAIC are also actively reducing shipping distances and accelerating production.

1. The total amount of rapid expansion, leading the competition for hegemony 1.1. Lithium battery head capacity deployment accelerated, the main pattern has highlighted the leading expansion of the competition has been halfway the head company's competitiveness is outstanding, maintaining the industry's overweight rating. We believe that the main battlefield of power lithium batteries will be concentrated among the top ten power lithium battery companies. The strategic planning, capacity deployment and supporting base construction progress of CR10 enterprise lithium-ion enterprises not only reflect their capital strength and market expansion strength, but also indicate the acceleration of the formation of the lithium battery industry. By comparing the production capacity and technology research and development of more than 10 domestic mainstream battery companies, we believe that the effect of industrial clusters has been highlighted, and industrial clusters have laid the foundation for the market. The future industry competition will be in the well-developed head enterprises. Win.

The increase in industry concentration has accelerated the value of the head company and maintained the industry's recommended rating. The proportion of head capacity has increased, and the living space of SMEs continues to be under pressure. In the past 17 years, the expansion of power battery leaps led by Ningde era and BYD was higher than the industry average. CATL (17GWh), BYD (16GWh) and Guoxuan Hi-Tech (10GWh) continued to rank among the top three, and Beijing Guoneng, Fu Neng Technology, and Tianjin Lishen followed closely, which led to a further increase in industry concentration. The power lithium battery industry capacity CR10 index increased from 44% in 2016 to more than 52% in 2017. The top ten installed capacity in the first 18 years of the year are CATL, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BYD, BAK Battery, Far East Foster, Guoneng Battery, Wanxiang, Zhihang New Energy, Fueng Technology, and Haguangyu.

The passive expansion of production capacity is nearing the end, and the average production capacity of SMEs with a total capacity of 41% is about 2.5GWh, which is further widened from that of large enterprises. Judging from the capital expenditures of companies such as Aoyang Shunchang, Far East Foster, and Nandu Power, there is basically no plan to continue investing. The 17-year investment is not as good as the previous planning targets. As the concentration of production capacity is rising rapidly, SMEs are limited by capital and technical personnel reserves, and capacity expansion tends to be rationally stagnant, which is relatively conservative in overall capacity planning. The expansion of current production capacity is not limited to the local government resources of the enterprise, but more is the deployment within the transportation radius centered on the car-enterprise customers for the supporting projects.

2. The technical route is fully rolled out: the square has become main stream and the proportion of soft packs has increased rapidly. In 2017, the three types of battery capacity of square, cylindrical and soft packs reached 68.5GWh, 63GWh and 23GWh, respectively, accounting for 45% and 41% respectively. 15%. At the end of 2018, the total production capacity of the whole industry will reach 182GWH. According to our industry analysis, the square production capacity reaches 93.5GWh, the cylindrical production capacity is 50.5GWh and the soft package capacity reaches 38GWh, accounting for 51%, 28% and 21% respectively. From the trend:

1. Square production capacity accounted for half, has become the most important technical route, capacity expansion rate reached 36%, square enterprises' production capacity is mainly concentrated in CATL, BYD, Guoxuan, Lishen, etc., only these four production capacity in 2018 Up to 71.5GWh, accounting for 85.6%, up 4% year-on-year. The expansion of these companies is relatively large, and it is the main driving force for the high growth rate of the square.

2. Cylindrical capacity expansion is the fastest with a growth rate of 8%. Our analysis believes that the main reason is that the cylindrical enterprises are fiercely competitive and are currently undergoing technological upgrading. The cylindrical plant has the highest capacity base, and its main expansion is shifting from 18650 to 21700. The speed has slowed down.

3. Soft pack batteries rise rapidly due to high energy density, but due to the high technical threshold, the technical principle of square and cylinder is quite different. Therefore, the expansion is mainly concentrated in soft pack leading enterprises such as Fueng, and the overall production capacity is 38GWh. The production capacity of Guoneng and Kaina reached 13GWh/13GWh/5.8GWh respectively.

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