Diving lithium battery diaphragm unit price

Huatai Securities quoted the Hongtu diaphragm as listing the new three-board announcement that the largest part of the production cost of the lithium battery diaphragm is the depreciation and labor costs of the equipment, accounting for nearly half of the ratio. The main raw materials such as polyethylene, dichloromethane, and white oil account for about 30 %, and electricity and gas account for about 20 %.

In the above cost structure, labor costs and hydropower gas are relatively fixed and predictable, while raw materials such as polyethylene are mainly affected by oil prices, and enterprises can not control them. Due to the low oil price, the purchase price of Shanghai Enjie polyethylene was 30602.29 yuan/ton, 23825.4 yuan/ton and 21646.97 yuan/ton respectively from 2015 to 2017, which decreased by 29.26 % during the period.

However, as oil prices continued to rise in the second half of 2017, polyethylene prices began to warm. According to Wind data, as of February 2018, the average unit price of imports of high-density polyethylene has risen to around $1300 per ton, nearly the highest point in the third quarter of 2015. In the third quarter of 2017, the average unit price for imports was still around $1,100 per ton.

Among the many factors that affect the lithium battery diaphragm gross margin, the product price is more obvious than the operating cost, and the large decline in the margins of multiple diaphragm peers is obviously related to the decline in the diaphragm price. Star source material explained the company's performance when it said that the decline in product prices is one of the main reasons.

This downward trend did not stop in 2018. Huaxin's weekly report disclosed that at the beginning of January 2018, the mainstream quotation for the wet diaphragm of 16 μm was 3.3-4 .4 yuan/m2, and it was further reduced to 3-3 .6 yuan/m2 in mid-to-late April. The lower limit was further lowered to 3.5 yuan/m2 at the beginning of May. This trend is even more pronounced when measured in years.

How fast the diaphragm price falls, innovative share purchase book is also described. From 2015 to 2017, the unit price of Shanghai Enjie coating film was 6.69 yuan per square meter, 5.75 yuan per square meter and 5.56 yuan per square meter, respectively, which decreased by 16.89 % in three years.

During the same period, the unit price of the base film semi-finished product was 3.76 yuan/m2, 3.85 yuan/m2 and 3.04 yuan/m2, a decrease of 19.15 %; The unit price of the finished product is 4.13 yuan/m2, 4.3 yuan/m2, and 4.12 yuan/m2. And in Shanghai Enjie film sales, the company's main sales are exactly semi-finished products with a significant reduction in prices, and sales of finished products are getting less and less, accounting for less than 10 % in 2016.

It can be seen that in addition to the small reduction in the finished products of the basement film, the unit price of the other two products is nearly 20 %. The same is true of the Hongtu diaphragm acquired by Golden Crown Electric. Its base film unit price is 4.29 yuan per square meter, 4.02 yuan per square meter and 3.82 yuan per square meter from 2015 to 2016 and from January to August 2017; In 2016 and July-August 2017, the unit price of coated film was 6.82 yuan per square meter and 6.08 yuan per square meter, a decrease of more than 10 %.

In the composition of Shanghai Enjie's income, except for 2016, the ratio of the base film to coated film income is basically equal. From 2015 to 2017, the company's base film revenue was 84.56 million yuan, 179 million yuan, and 457 million yuan, and the coating film revenue was 72.13 million yuan, 320 million yuan, and 437 million yuan. Even if the price of the base film decreased slightly, the proportion of coating film to the company's revenue was about 50 %, then, as the coating film price continued to fall, How does Shanghai Enjie maintain high gross profit?

In the acquisition of innovative shares, Shanghai Enjie gave a generous performance promise that the net profits after deducting from 2017-2019 will not be less than 378 million yuan, 555 million yuan, and 763 million yuan, respectively. If the acquisition is completed in 2018, it will promise a net profit of no less than 852 million yuan in 2020.

According to the audit report, in 2017, Shanghai Enjie's non-net profit was 387 million yuan, which just fulfilled the performance promise.

It is worth mentioning that compared with competitors, Shanghai Enjie's accounts receivable account is clearly relaxed. For accounts receivable within one year, the star source material and the pearl of Zhangzhou are all accounted for according to 5 % of the standard, while Shanghai Enjie is zero in 6 months, and 6 months to 1 year of accounts receivable is accounted for. 5 %.

According to the audit report of Shanghai Enjie, in 2017, the company's accounts receivable was 294 million yuan, of which 278 million yuan was within 6 months. If the accounts receivable were uniformly charged according to the 5 % standard of the peers, the above accounts receivable should be accounted for by 13.91 million yuan. The provision for bad debts, Shanghai Enjie's net profit after deducting was reduced to 373 million yuan. This means that the company will not be able to meet its 2017 performance commitments.

For future performance commitments, Shanghai Enjie also predicts that the price of the diaphragm will decline, but the increase in production capacity brought about by the construction of the Zhuhai base can make up for the decline in prices so that the performance commitment can be completed in quantity.

According to the purchase book, Shanghai Enjie's eight diaphragm production lines currently under construction are all included in the profit expectations. In addition to the Shanghai production line, 800 million yuan of innovative SHARES supporting capital is mainly used for the construction of 5 wet production lines in the first phase of Zhuhai. The output will reach 417 million square meters. Shanghai Enjie will build 12 production lines in Zhuhai, and 3 production lines have been put into production by the end of December 2017.

New capacity has been incorporated into performance commitments, and price compliance is critical. According to the purchase plan, the sales unit price of the coated film is 5.63 yuan per square meter, 5.35 yuan per square meter, 5.24 yuan per square meter and 5.14 yuan per square meter from 2017 to 2020. The projected unit price of the base film semi-finished product is 3.66 yuan/m2, 3.29 yuan/m2, 3.13 yuan/m2 and 2.97 yuan/m2, and the unit price of the base film semi-finished product is 4.08 yuan/m2, 3.67 yuan/m2, 3.49 yuan/m2 and 3.32 yuan/m2.

However, according to the actual situation that Shanghai Enjie has already disclosed, the unit price of the company's base film semi-finished products, finished products and coated films in 2017 was 3.04 yuan per square meter, 4.12 yuan per square meter, and 5.56 yuan per square meter, respectively. In addition to the slightly higher base film products with the lowest income, the unit price of the base film semi-finished products and coated films is lower than expected. Among them, the base film semi-finished products have dropped by 16.94 % from expectations, and the coated film is also less than expected.

According to the introduction of innovative shares, from 2015 to 2017, the capacity utilization rate of Shanghai Enjie Film was 87.27 %, 101.59 % and 102.59 %, respectively. It is not difficult to find that the company's production capacity has been fully utilized, construction and production has also been included, and the price of one of the flagship products has dropped by nearly 20 %. So how did Shanghai Enjie achieve a better net profit than expected?

In 2018, Shanghai Enjie estimated that the company's unit price for semi-finished film, finished product and the coated film was 3.29 yuan per square meter, 3.67 yuan per square meter and 5.35 yuan per square meter, respectively. In fact, the company's 2017 base film semi-finished product unit price of 3.04 yuan per square meter has been lower than the 3.13 yuan per square meter estimated in 2019.

In 2017, the base film finished product and Tubumo are still higher than the forecast price in 2018. Can the price in 2018 meet expectations? Shanghai Enjie has offered to reduce the average price of its products by about 20 per cent in order to gain a bigger market share, the company said in a recent investor activity log.

This means that in 2017 when the unit price of the submembrane semi-finished product and coating film was lower than expected, Shanghai Enjie again reduced its price by about 20 %, and the company originally predicted that the price of the submembrane semi-finished product and the finished product would be reduced by about 10 % in 2018. About 5 % of the film price, the actual situation is a decrease of about 20 %.

How can Shanghai's Enjie achieve the expected profit when the new year's price forecast has not been realized and the new year's price cut is much higher than expected? The price is less than expected, the company can maintain the current 60 % gross profit margin?

Although the price war in the Red Sea has been opened, the lithium battery diaphragm enterprise's determination to expand production has not stopped. As a latecomer, Shanghai Enjie with the advantage of the industry has long been the first covet, to do a large-scale heart has been revealed. Overcapacity is looming amid the industry's expansion.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.