Dialogue Star: Where are the Opportunities for Chinese Power Battery Enterprises

Time went to the first half of 2018, the development of China's power battery industry in the future has suddenly increased, and there has been a contradiction between the "unicorn" and "black swan" dance, the market-oriented application is clear, and the industry reshuffle has accelerated.

On the one hand, the Ningde era, which is located in Fujian, has become a unicorn in the domestic power battery field with a valuation of more than 100 billion. It has not only won most of the domestic new energy car market. And it began to aggressively import into the supply chain of international car companies and started its global expansion. Unsurprisingly, it will officially land on the capital market in June.

The other side of the coin is that since the end of 2017, the battery companies that once ranked first have stretched their business boundaries due to the lack of forging of technology and products for a long time. This has led to the outbreak of multiple problems from market applications, customer feedback, and supplier debt. The industry's "black swan" is looming and may trigger a large-scale crisis at any time.

If we compare the development of China's new energy vehicles and power batteries to marathons, the gap between the contestants is now clearly open. Standing at this node, we need to make a comprehensive summary and resumption of the first half of the game to see which players' strategies It is worth learning, and the behavior of the players should be reflected; based on this, it is necessary to adjust the game in the second half in time to learn from each other and adjust the mentality, which is crucial for the next game.

At the beginning of May, Feng Xiao, chairman of High-tech Lithium and Xingheng Power, conducted an in-depth discussion and exchange on the above topics in Suzhou.

The content of the exchange includes a series of questions such as how to look at the law of enterprise development, how to look at the rhythm of market launch, how to look at technology and products, how to look at business model innovation, and how to look at Capital. The conclusion is that if we want to establish a foothold in the future market competition, the power battery enterprise should take the product as the core and make a solid industry.

Since its establishment 15 years ago, Xingheng Power has focused on the industrial application of manganese batteries with an international perspective, focusing on products and market demand. As of now, there are more than 6 million batteries for light vehicles and 35,000 batteries for electric vehicles. Become a power battery company with great growth potential and explosive stamina.

Through thinking and judging the industry and planning the development path of the star power supply, the industry can have a clearer and more accurate understanding and understanding of the industry, which is also the greatest significance of this article.

What? Duplicate: Unicorn and Black Swan

Duplicate Chinese power battery companies, although not long, but ups and downs, there are traces. Unicorns can become unicorns, there is an inevitable logic to follow, and the black swan becomes a black swan, and there are common lessons to be learned and avoided.

BYD, who started making nickel-cadmium batteries in 1995, fought a hard battle with Sanyo, Sony, and Matsushita in the late 1990s, ranking second in global batteries, listed in Hong Kong in 2002, and acquired Qinchuan Automobile in 2003. From the original mobile phone battery, All the way to where we are today. The choice of products is also very clear. The power battery insists on lithium iron phosphate. It is applied in taxis and then to electric buses. Now it begins to turn to three yuan and apply the key layout passenger car.

In addition, in the era of the unicorns Ningde, it is now said that the Ningde era was founded for 6 years and valued at hundreds of billions, but it is not accurate to bypass ATL to talk about the Ningde era. The two are in the same vein. The growth of ATL has laid a solid foundation for the outbreak of the Ningde era.

In the first half of the ATL, he started his own business in 1998. On the team, the core team, including technology, manufacturing, supply chain management, etc., imported from the hard disk factory in Taiwan and established scientific system management. On the product, resolutely and continuously invest in research and development, introduce soft package battery patented technology from Bell Labs, and continuously upgrade, and continuously attack the core technology bottleneck; In terms of growth, the early stages experienced hardships and difficulties. Once they faced difficulties and sold them to TDK, they eventually seized the opportunity to jump out of the smartphone era and become the number one consumer digital soft pack battery in the world.

The success of Ningde era can sum up the following points: First, a deep understanding and understanding of products; Second, clear product positioning and market objectives in a certain period of time, starting with passenger cars, now with passenger cars for the main goal; the third is a neat team; the fourth is to have a global vision and vision.

The stone of other mountains can attack jade.

Internationalized thinking and vision, deep understanding of products, clear and precise positioning of products and markets, and long-term persistence under pressure to survive are all common logic that can be found in BYD and Ningde. This has a relatively clear guiding significance for the development and strategy of power battery companies.

The lessons of the black swan are also worth pondering.

Contrary to BYD and Ningde, black swans are now at great risk. What these companies have in common is the general lack of awareness and understanding of products, the lack of continuous investment in R&D and technology, the blind pursuit of scale expansion, the transitional extension of business boundaries, and the blind pursuit of business models that ignore product quality. So-called "innovation" ...

What should be faced with is that the emergence of the black swan is inseparable from the policy and existing industrial environment. The world's new energy vehicles are China's lead, and China's policy behind the lead has played a strong role in promoting it.

The force of the policy has led to a huge influx of hot money and soaring production capacity. However, the industry itself has a serious shortage of accumulated reserves of talents. The final problem is that new energy vehicles and power batteries are becoming the same as major industries such as petrochemicals and communications. However, talents training, technology research, and development investment, etc. are still small industry situation, Pony pulls the cart, will inevitably lead to many enterprises for the development of the industry and research and evaluation of deviations and problems.

"If you compare batteries to cooking, if the dishes are delicious or not, you will know whether the batteries are good or not. If there is a problem with the dish, it will soon be known that the battery will wait for three or five years. "Fengxiao's judgment is that after the development of the past few years, it has experienced a heavy floating, who is swimming naked, has already seen the clues.

The warning from the black swan is that if you can't learn from these issues, many lithium-powered companies will pay expensive tuition fees and face the next marathon.

What? Research: Where are the opportunities for Chinese power battery companies?

For more battery companies, if you want to survive, you must think about a proposition: Where is the opportunity?

Answer this question before, give domestic power battery industry chain enterprise to make a position first.

From a global perspective, Chinese companies still need to step up their efforts, compared with the Japanese, who still have control over core materials and technologies. In terms of core equipment technology, it is mainly in the hands of Koreans, but Chinese companies are developing rapidly and are catching up. From the perspective of the battery link, the domestic BYD and Ningde era two have the strength and ability to compete for international brands in the global market. Even so, compared with companies such as Panasonic, Samsung, LG, etc., the shortboard is still there, and the advantages are still not fully highlighted.

The BYD and Ningde era has only one, which means that more Chinese power battery companies, the main market space is also in the domestic new energy car market, specifically focused on self-branded car companies.

The question that follows is, where are the opportunities for self-branding? Who starts the passenger car and logistics car market first?

What if, for domestic brands, consumers are willing to pay 1 million for a Tesla and 2 million for an electric Porsche, but are they willing to pay 30 to 600,000 for an electric car of their own? Now there's a question mark.

The way to win independent brands should focus on price performance. In the price range of 10 to 200,000, consumers can buy electric cars to "calculate the ledger." The so-called "accounting posting" is to run farther and save money throughout the life cycle.

The price of an electric car is about 50,000 yuan more expensive than the same level of fuel, and the increased cost of 50,000 yuan is mainly due to power batteries. According to the statistics of fuel consumption and electricity consumption per 100 kilometers, the difference between oil and electricity is about 50 yuan per 100 kilometers. If the average of 10,000 kilometers per year for private passenger cars is calculated, the extra 50,000 yuan will be collected after five years. In ten years, the entire life cycle will earn 50,000 yuan for a set of batteries, and it will also face the problem of inadequate infrastructure. For consumers, at the moment, it is not a complete posting.

In the field of logistics vehicles, the entire life cycle is generally around 250,000 kilometers, which means that in addition to being able to earn the cost of the battery at the time of purchase, it can also earn 2 to 3 sets of batteries, which shows a very obvious value. Coupled with the support of policy rights and so on, this will certainly promote operators, express delivery companies, financial capital is willing to invest more to do.

The logistics car field accounts are the easiest to calculate, and therefore the easiest to start. The passenger car electric car, at present, still needs to be accumulated in consumer perception. But the online car and taxi field will probably be the same as the logistics car, a breakthrough. It also starts with the "accounting posting". From the point of view of the daily mileage, the number of cars and taxis on the Internet is between 250 and 300 kilometers per day, one life cycle, and the total mileage is between 400,000 and 500,000 kilometers. This means that it can be returned within 10 months to 17 months, and the total life cycle can save about 200,000 yuan.

What? Positioning: Xingheng's "two-wheel drive" market strategy.

Based on the double disk of the power battery industry and the judgment of market opportunities, Fengxiao made a clearer setting for the strategy of Xingheng Power.

Judging from the development of the past 15 years, Xingheng Power has a growth gene similar to that of Ningde and BYD: Technically, it relies on the technical transformation of the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and continues to focus on manganese multivariate lithium battery technology; On the product, based on the understanding of technology and the analysis of market requirements, there is a deep understanding and understanding of the product, and continuous iterative upgrade to meet the needs of practical applications; Strategically, it has a clear and accurate market positioning, and it has continued to cultivate light vehicles in the early stages. It has become a leader in the subdivision field overseas and in China. On this basis, it focuses on the development of the logistics vehicle field. In this process, Establish the vision and strategic thinking of internationalization.

This also laid a solid foundation for the next expansion. Talking about Xingheng's "two-wheel drive" strategy, it can be accurately summarized as follows: In the field of electric light vehicles, it continues to expand its market share, achieve the replacement of lead-acid batteries, and become an absolute leader; The new energy car market is the main force for growth. Xing Heng must win the top spot in the logistics vehicle subdivision field in the short term, and at the same time seize the opportunity of operating vehicles in the passenger car market.

Supporting the strategy of Xingheng is that for a long time it has always insisted on "cost performance" as the king. On the basis of ensuring safety and performance can meet the actual application needs, it pursues high value for money. At present, the production line has achieved 1 yuan / Wh at the end of 2018. Product preparation.

After 15 years of market application testing, Xing Heng's power lithium battery products have gained a good reputation and have also achieved dazzling market results. So far, Xing Heng has 35,000 car batteries and 6 million light car batteries. Put on the market.

Based on a deep understanding of batteries, a solid market foundation, and a clear market strategy, Xing Heng is expanding its production capacity to meet the growing market demand. At the end of 2018, two new battery production lines were put into operation in Suzhou. The construction of the Zhangzhou base is expected to be completed and put into production in the second quarter of 2019 when the total production capacity of Xingheng will reach 11 GWh.

The development of enterprises must follow the laws of industry and have a set of scientific concepts of development. Xing Heng's approach is to ensure that under a certain growth rate, no time is owed to the market's account, and it is steadily advancing and waiting for opportunities to move.

Now their time has come.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.