The power lithium battery industry has begun to highlight the contrarian opportunity

Lithium-ion materials have the most potential

Power battery is the key technology link of new energy vehicles. When interviewing industry researchers, it is known that automobile power batteries are mainly divided into nickel-metal hydride batteries and lithium batteries. Nickel-metal hydride batteries are still the first choice for hybrid vehicles in the short term due to their technical maturity and cost advantages. However, due to its low energy compared with lithium batteries and memory effects, lithium batteries will become the main driving force for plug-in hybrid vehicles and pure electric vehicles after the cost problem is solved. In China, although the industrialization of lithium batteries will be available for some time, the core components of lithium batteries are developing rapidly, and the preferential policies for beneficiary policies are large.

The lithium battery mainly comprises four parts: a positive electrode material, a negative electrode material, an electrolyte solution and a separator. Among them, the cathode material, electrolyte and separator are the three core materials, accounting for about 70% of the cost of lithium batteries. Lithium batteries can be mainly classified into lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, ternary materials, and lithium iron phosphate according to different cathode materials. Among them, lithium cobalt oxide battery is mainly used in mobile phones and PCs, and is not suitable for use as a new energy vehicle power battery. Japanese and Korean companies tend to use lithium manganate or ternary lithium batteries, while the US and Chinese companies tend to use lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Donghai Securities analyst Jigang Niu believes that "the two technology paths may coexist for a long time, but because lithium iron phosphate battery has the outstanding advantages of longer service life and better safety, it is undoubtedly the most promising power lithium battery variety." Listed companies related to domestic lithium battery cathode materials mainly include Shanshan, Dangsheng Technology, CITIC Guoan and China Baoan. Among them, Shanshan has built a complete system from anode material to cathode material to electrolyte. The company has become the largest domestic and the world's third largest supplier of cathode materials, and now has mastered the preparation technology of lithium iron phosphate; China Baoan is the domestic standard manufacturer of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, holding 55% of Betray lithium iron phosphate The production capacity of cathode materials has reached 1,500 tons/year, and the sales of ternary cathode materials, which is mainly owned by Tianjiao, which is 75%, ranks first in China in 2008, and its market share is as high as 30%~40%. However, Jigang Niu said, “This industry has already implied a certain risk of overcapacity. The industry competition will be very fierce. Only companies with outstanding technological advantages, excellent product performance and stability can stand out in the fierce competition. But for now, because Industry demand has not yet been released in a large amount and the actual gap between the companies is still not good."

Electrolyte is another important material that affects the performance of lithium batteries, and its technical threshold is relatively high. At present, the domestic electrolyte manufacturers with large-scale production capacity mainly include Huarong Chemical of Jiangsu Guotai, Dongguan Shanshan and Shanzhou of Shanshan. Huarong Chemical is the largest lithium battery electrolyte manufacturer in China with the highest product grade. At present, the company is constructing “300 tons of lithium hexafluoro phosphate Project”; Huatian Textile Co., Ltd.’s Huatian Company also plans to have 5,000 tons of production capacity, but it is still in trial production stage. It is worth mentioning that the high-end electrolyte requires extremely high purity of its raw material lithium hexafluorophosphate. Chinese enterprises have not fully mastered their production technology, and lithium hexafluorophosphate required is heavily dependent on imports. Jiangsu Guotai has already targeted this technology highland. If the trial production is successful, the company is expected to achieve significant technical and cost advantages in the electrolyte field.

The separator is the product with the highest technical content and gross profit margin in lithium battery materials, which has a great impact on the safety of the battery. At present, there are no enterprises in China that will industrialize diaphragm manufacturing, mainly by foreign capital monopoly. Foshan Plastics Co., Ltd. and BYD have established a professional manufacturer of lithium battery separators, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, which has become a leading company in the domestic diaphragm industry. Jinhui Hi-Tech is actively researching and developing diaphragms for power batteries, and is expected to take the lead in making breakthroughs in this field.

Upstream resources are good

In the new energy automobile industry chain, the upstream of the battery and motor industries also indirectly benefit from policy stimulus. CITIC Securities believes that the main upstream resource of the battery industry is lithium, and the main upstream resource of the motor industry is rare earth, so lithium and rare earth occupy an important position in the new energy automobile industry chain.

The main sources of lithium resources are Tibet Mining and CITIC Guoan. Tibet Mining has the 20-year mining rights of the world's largest reserves and the world's third-largest Zabuye Salt Lake. Lithium carbonate (the key raw material for cathode materials) is rich in reserves, and the proven reserves of lithium carbonate exceed 2 million tons. Once the lithium-based and purification technologies have made breakthroughs, it is the lithium carbonate manufacturer that is most likely to provide low-cost battery-grade. The company announced on May 7 that it is preparing for a non-public offering, raising 1.5 billion Yuan, all for the development of lithium resources. The production of lithium carbonate in Qinghai Guoan, a subsidiary of CITIC Guoan, is only a few thousand tons, but the company's design capacity is 25,000 tons per year, which has great potential for future development. However, industry insiders also stressed that due to the current gap in the purification process, the actual production capacity is far from the planned production capacity.

Another major raw material rare earth is mainly used in the hybrid electric vehicle and pure electric vehicle industry chain in the NdFeB permanent magnet. From the current situation, NdFeB is the most suitable magnetic material for permanent magnet synchronous motors, and it is the new material that consumes the most rare earth. A permanent magnet synchronous motor for a hybrid car requires 2 kg of neodymium iron boron, while an electric car uses up to a dozen kilograms of neodymium iron boron. Zhiguo Zheng, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo, suggested focusing on the production of NdFeB magnets, such as Zhongke Sanhuan and Ningbo Yunsheng, while the most representative company of Rare Earth is Baotou Steel Rare Earth.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.