Power lithium battery goes hot which listed company is worth looking forward to?

According to statistics from the China Automobile Industry Association, in July, the production of new energy vehicles was 1,937 vehicles, and 16,884 vehicles were sold, an increase of 2.2 times and 3.3 times respectively. The development of new energy vehicles is a national strategy. The management has started to build a set of policies to support the accelerated development of new energy vehicles in terms of development planning, consumer subsidies, tax policies, scientific research input, government procurement, and standard setting. From the industrial chain point of view, new energy vehicles involve vehicles, lithium batteries, recharging power stations and other related fields. Among them, the lithium battery industry chain as the core elements of new energy vehicles growth, investment opportunities are determined.

Industry space is large and growth rate is fast

In 2014, the output of lithium batteries increased rapidly, and power batteries became the largest growth end. According to relevant statistics, the domestic output of lithium-ion batteries in 2014 was 29.868 million KWh, an increase of 31 % year-on-year, maintaining a relatively high growth rate. In terms of breakdown, the production of lithium ion batteries for consumer electronics products increased by 16 % year-on-year, and the production of power batteries increased by 130 % year-on-year. In terms of the new increment, power cells have surpassed consumer electronics and become the biggest engine of lithium ion battery growth. The demand for lithium batteries involves a wide range of industries, focusing on laptops, mobile phones, and electric vehicles, of which electric vehicles account for 13 %.

Statistics show that the batteries used in new energy vehicles are mainly lithium batteries. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the 69th batch of energy conservation and new energy vehicle demonstration and application projects, the power batteries of the recommended models, the top five battery types are lithium iron phosphate 677 batches, lithium manganate 105 batches, lithium triplicate 88 batches, lead acid batteries 51 batches, multiple lithium 41 batches; The first few manufacturers of lithium iron phosphate were 108 batches of Hefei Guoxuan Gaoke, 100 batches of Wotema, 81 batches of Lithium batteries, 46 batches of 10,000 batches, and 46 batches of Tianjin Lishen batteries; The top few manufacturers of lithium manganate were respectively the 78 batches of UNITA's fixed power, 10 batches of Suzhou Xingheng Power Supply, 8 batches of Futianaiyike passenger cars, 8 batches of Lithium New Energy, and 4 batches of Polyfluoride.

Support the development of lithium batteries from the policy point of view: The Ministry of Finance issued the "Notice on the Collection of Consumption Tax on Batteries and Coatings", which clearly states that the consumption tax on lead-acid batteries will be imposed on 4 % from January 1, 2016. This will undoubtedly accelerate the pace of replacing lead acid with lithium batteries and usher in a new climax in the development of lithium electricity. Comparison of lithium batteries with traditional lead-acid batteries shows that lithium batteries have many advantages in the field of new energy vehicles: compared with the performance of traditional lead-acid batteries and lithium batteries, the general lead-acid batteries for electric vehicles are about 16 kilograms. The use of lithium batteries is only about 3 kilograms, and it is easy to move and charge, and the cost is about 300 yuan.

In terms of life, lithium batteries are four times that of lead-acid batteries. lead-acid batteries must be replaced once in one year and cost more than 1,000 yuan in four years. It is also troublesome. Lithium batteries can be used for more than 4 years, and the combined cost of use is only about one-quarter of that of lead-acid batteries. And from the perspective of environmental protection, lithium batteries are pollution-free and meet the needs of the policy. With the improvement of the performance of lithium batteries and the decrease in cost, it is an inevitable trend for lead-acid batteries to be replaced by lithium batteries with excellent performance, laying a good market foundation for the development of 100 billion storage space for lithium batteries.

The demand for power lithium batteries is huge. It is estimated that the output of new energy vehicles in China in 2015 will be about 200,000 vehicles, which will account for less than 1 % of the total number of cars sold in China over 20 million vehicles in the current year. In other words, there is theoretically more than 100 times more market space for new energy vehicles. The huge space for the development of new energy vehicles will bring huge space to the power battery as an important part of it. At present, the new energy electric vehicle power battery used is mainly a lithium battery powered by Lithium as a raw material, so the future space of the power lithium battery is huge.

Lithium battery demand has remained high, and demand for new energy vehicles has become the main reason for lithium battery growth. In recent years, both the production and sales of new energy vehicles have been growing rapidly, and they are in a phase of gradual release. In the National "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", by 2015, the cumulative production and sales of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will strive to reach 500,000 vehicles; By 2020, the production capacity of pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles will reach 2 million vehicles, and the cumulative production and sales volume will exceed 5 million vehicles. Once the scale of the electric vehicle market started, it will bring explosive growth to the lithium electricity market. In 2014, as the first year of the outbreak of new energy vehicles, on the basis of the continued outbreak in 2015, lithium battery sales will erupt and come out of the good market.

Since May 31, 2010, the lithium battery index has gone out of a better market, with a maximum increase of more than 300 %. It has outperformed the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange Index, which is comparable to the GEM Index. Judging from the performance of the secondary market stock price, the lithium battery industry is recognized by the market. In the case of new energy vehicles, the fundamentals of lithium batteries are supported, and the performance of the secondary market will be even more exciting.

Rapid growth of the entire industrial chain

Lithium battery industry chain. Lithium-ion batteries are mainly composed of electric cores and protective panels. In most batteries, the core accounts for more than 70 % of the cost. Lithium-ion core is mainly composed of four parts, namely positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte(electrolyte), occupying the vast majority of the cost of lithium batteries, is the hot spot of market research. Among them, the positive electrode materials mainly include lithium cobalt acid, lithium manganese acid and ternary materials, and the positive electrode materials account for about 44 % of the cost of the core.

Driven by the huge incremental demand of power lithium batteries, the key raw materials upstream will usher in a good opportunity for development. In the future, positive, negative, diaphragm, and electrolyte(electrolyte) will be in line with the speed of development of power cells, basically maintaining an average annual compound growth rate of more than 40 %.

Beginning in October 2014, the price of lithium carbonate began a continuous upward trend. From the demand side, the customs import of lithium carbonate has been significantly released since April, which also conforms to the principle of "quantity is before price". The floods in Chile at the end of March 2015 further accelerated the increase in product prices. At present, the price of lithium carbonate has been at a high level in recent years. The rise in the price of lithium products will continue, given the limited increase in supply and the relatively rapid rise in demand. Involved in the subject of Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Zhonghe shares, Luxiang shares, Jiangte.

Power cells grow rapidly. Under the electric vehicle release volume, the power battery also ushered in the peak sales, the growth rate of over 210 % in the same period. Capacity utilization has also reached a record high, such as BYD, Wotema, Guoxuan and other power companies appear in short supply. At present, in response to the huge demand for electric vehicles, all major enterprises are actively expanding their production capacity. According to our judgment on the Chinese market and industry, the output of power cells in 2015 has increased significantly, with a corresponding increase of 170 %. In the medium and long term, lithium-powered batteries will produce 50 GWh in 2018, and their sales revenue will also exceed 70 billion. 2015-2018 will be the most important point for power battery companies to determine their future pattern.

Sales of positive-grade materials maintained a high growth rate, with a compound growth rate of 40% in the next 3 to 5 years. The current status of cathode material manufacturers is 2000 tons of BYD lithium cobalt oxide and more than 1000 tons of lithium iron phosphate; more than 3,000 tons of CITIC Guoan Meng Guli ternary cathode material; Hunan Shanshan cathode material production capacity of 10,000 tons; Beijing Dang Lithium Cobaltate 3900 2,000 tons of ton and ternary materials. Involved in the target of BYD, Shanshan shares, Zhonghe shares, Dangsheng Technology.

Negative material sales maintained a high rate of growth, with a compound growth rate of 40 % in the next 3 to 5 years. The main materials are graphite and carbon materials. The negative electrode material should be the material with the smallest gap between China and foreign countries among the four key materials. The subject matter involved is Sugiyama shares, Zhonghe shares, and Beiterui, a subsidiary of China Baoan.

The diaphragm sales volume maintains a high growth rate. The compound growth rate in the next 3 to 5 years is 40 %. It is expected that the sales volume in 2018 will reach 1 billion square meters. At present, there are 15 million square meters of science and technology in production capacity; Yun Tianhua 30 million square meters; Cangzhou Pearl 75 million square meters; Buddha plastic technology 117 million square meters; Greater Southeast 60 million square meters. Although the diaphragm material link can produce more companies, but the sales volume is at a low level, the next phase of the diaphragm industry investment key two: sales volume has become one of the key indicators of the test, sales volume is expected to increase the profit level; The proportion of functional high-end products is increased, which is mainly reflected in the promotion of high-end products such as ceramic coating diaphragm.

The sales volume of electrolytes has maintained a high rate of growth, with a compound growth rate of 40 % in the next 3 to 5 years. It is expected that sales will reach 100,000 tons in 2018. Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The future competition focus is on scale and cost. The longest polyfluorosis in the industrial chain has growth opportunities. Judging from the current production capacity status and the expansion of production under construction, the existing capacity of polyfluorosis in China is 1200 tons/year, and the capacity under construction is 1,000 tons/year; Jiujiu's existing production capacity is 400 tons/year, and its construction capacity is 1,600 tons/year. After the two companies have completed production capacity construction, production capacity will jump to the top three levels in the world. Tianjin Taurus and Guangzhou Tianci and other companies also plan to achieve a capacity of 1,000 tons per year. Electrolytes: electrolytes are the most in-depth link into the international industrial chain. The focus of future competition is on the launch speed of high voltage products and flame-retardant products. Advantages include: Jiangsu Cathay Pacific, Xinyubang, and fir shares.

Lithium-ion battery equipment is expected to explode. In 2014, the output value of lithium power production equipment (excluding imported equipment) in China was 3.8 billion yuan, an increase of 31 %. With regard to imported equipment, total demand reached 7.5 billion yuan. Growth is mainly affected by the following factors: Power battery manufacturers continue to expand production, directly driving equipment demand; Product transformation, replacement equipment. In 2014, the aluminum shell market growth was blocked, and companies moved to the soft package market and needed new equipment. The production line is improved and upgraded, and the full automation rate is gradually increased. Demand for short-term lithium-ion batteries is expected to explode. In 2015, the explosion of the new energy vehicle market continued to benefit. Major domestic power battery manufacturers such as BYD, Guoxuan Gaoke, Wotema, and AVIC Lithium are all expanding their factories, and major foreign companies have also established factories in China. These directly drive equipment demand, GBII predicts. In 2015, the domestic output value of lithium power production equipment will reach 7.8 billion yuan, which will double the growth rate. The subject matter is lead shares and winnings technology.

Focus on 8 companies

From lithium ions, lithium ore resources, lithium carbonate, positive materials, negative materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolytes, diaphragm, and lithium battery equipment, there are more than 20 A-share related listed companies, of which 8 companies are worthy of focus. attention.

Dongyuan Electric Appliances: The acquisition of Guoxuan Gaoke entered the field of new energy batteries and became the leader in the field of new energy batteries. The production of Guoxuan Gaoke covers the main links of lithium ion power battery(group) products from positive electrode materials to core and battery groups. It is a leading enterprise that integrates its own R&D, production and sales. It holds core technology and rich industry resources. Most of the customers of Guoxuan Gaoke are new energy car companies, of which batteries account for more than 90 % of total revenue, and income from new energy vehicles accounts for more than 80 %. From 2011 to 2013, operating income ranged from 196 million to 782 million, and the compound growth rate reached 90 %. In the next three years, it will still maintain a compound growth rate of more than 70 %, of which 2014 revenue exceeded 10 billion, and it has been announced that the 2015 half-year performance Express will increase by 162 %.

Cangzhou Pearl: The company mainly operates three major services: PE plastic pipes and pipes, BOPA membranes, and lithium battery diaphragm. Currently, it has a production capacity of 105,000 tons of PE pipe pipes, 28,500 tons of BOPA thin films, and 30 million square meters of lithium battery diaphragm production capacity. (After production capacity will reach 75 million square meters). In the company's income structure in 2014, PE pipeline products accounted for 64.0 %, BOPA thin film products accounted for 30.2 %, and lithium diaphragm accounted for 5.8 %. However, due to the fact that the lithium diaphragm gross margin is much higher than that of PE pipeline and BOPA thin film products, the ratio of lithium battery diaphragm to gross profit is 18.7 %. From 2012 to 2014, the company's revenue from the lithium battery diaphragm business grew rapidly, from 25.876 million yuan to 120 million yuan, with an average annual growth rate of 115.5 %. The lithium battery diaphragm has a greater impact on the company's future performance.

Tianci materials: the main research and development, production and sales of fine chemical new materials, covering three major businesses including personal care materials, lithium ion battery materials and organosilicon materials. The company has the research and development and production capacity of lithium hexafluorophosphate, the core raw material of lithium ion batteries. It is the only company in the A share that has integrated production of lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium battery electrolytes. The lithium battery industry accounted for 28 % of revenue in 2014 and is expected to reach 39 % in 2015, which will have an increasing impact on company performance. Although the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is declining, the gross profit margin remains above 30 %.

Changyuan Group: In 2014, the company saw the future development opportunities of the new energy automotive industry and actively laid out the new energy automotive industry chain. Has invested in or acquired star source material (lithium battery diaphragm), Wotema (new energy vehicle power battery, off-grid energy storage products), Jiangsu Huasheng refinement (battery electrolytic fluid additive), Yuntaili (precision detection equipment), The diaphragm, electrolyte additives, power batteries, and precision detection equipment in the new energy automotive product line have all completed the corresponding layout through mergers and acquisitions. Changyuan Strategic Shares in the leading domestic power lithium battery company Wotema 11.11 % shares, lithium batteries as a key component to connect electrolytic materials and electric vehicles, Wotema can effectively play the synergies between Yuntaili and Wotema's industrial chain, Wotema. The annual performance of the next three years can be expected to double.

Polyfluoride: One of the largest inorganic fluorine chemical companies in the world with the largest scale, leading technology and high market share. The company's main business includes the development, production and sales of traditional fluoride salts and electronic grade fluorides. The main products include cryolite, anhydrous aluminum fluoride, lithium hexafluorophosphate and lithium battery cathode materials. It is hoped that with the acquisition of Red Star Automobile, the whole industrial chain layout of new energy vehicles with industrial upstream materials (lithium hexafluorophosphate), lithium battery and battery management system (BMS), motor management system, electric vehicle system and manufacturing will be built. The value chain and the manufacturing system form a closed loop in the true sense and become a small version of BYD.

Wintech: It can provide about 2/3 of the equipment in the lithium battery automation production line. It is the company that provides the most equipment among domestic manufacturers; the new product is the main line, and the R&D team is emphasized; successful listing will improve competitiveness. In 2014, the output value of China's lithium battery production equipment (excluding imported equipment) was 3.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31%. In 2015, benefiting from the continued outbreak of the new energy vehicle market, the output value of lithium battery production equipment is expected to reach 7.8 billion yuan. The company's 2015 interim report revenue increased by 45%, the performance growth rate is not high, mainly because of the increase in listed financial costs, in the future under high income growth, high performance growth can be expected.

Pilot shares: The company's winding machines and other products have reached the global advanced level. In 2014, the proportion of lithium battery equipment revenue has risen to 50%, becoming the company's biggest growth driver. Downstream customers include Samsung, ATL, BYD and other domestic and foreign lithium battery leaders. It is estimated that the domestic equipment market will reach 7.8 billion yuan in 2015, a year-on-year increase of 105.3%. During the period, the company achieved operating income of 192 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 88.47%, mainly due to the outbreak of lithium battery demand and the company's lithium battery equipment revenue contribution rate has increased significantly in recent years. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 46.228 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 103.60%, and the diluted EPS was 0.69 yuan. As of the mid-2015 report, there were still 762 million yuan in unexecuted orders, which has the potential to become the industry leader and enjoy the feast of lithium battery equipment.

Zhonghe shares: In September 2012, the company increased its holding of 2/3 of Xiamen Lanshi into the lithium battery industry chain. Xiamen Lanshi owns 98% of Malcolm Mine and 70% of Shenzhen Tianjiao; in December 2013, the company transferred 20% of Shentong Company, Shentong plans to launch new energy vehicle battery rental and charging services; August 2014 Through the acquisition of minority shareholders, Zhonghe Holdings, Jinxin Mining and Jifeng Lithium Industry 96.14% equity and Shenzhen Tianjiao 70% equity; participate in Shentong electric vehicle energy company test water terminal market, complete the resource end (spodumene) → lithium salt (hydrogen Lithium oxide) → positive electrode material (ternary material) → battery use full industrial chain layout.

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