Ternary battery ring ratio declines, special car iron lithium increase

Not long ago, China Merchants Securities issued a research report on the "8th batch of recommended catalogues, the continuation of battery technology trends, and the release of dedicated models." In the report, it professionally analyzed the future trend of new energy vehicles after the release of the 8th batch of catalogues as scheduled. And the development trend of battery technology.

It is understood that a total of 273 models from 95 companies in the 8th batch of recommended catalogues have been selected. The cumulative number of the first eight batches of catalogues released has exceeded the total level of last year. The continuous release of the catalogues and the recent double points policy are expected to fall. The new energy car market is expected to accelerate again.

Special-vehicle models have grown by 25 miles, and passenger car models have declined slightly. This batch of catalogues includes passenger vehicles, passenger cars, and special vehicles, which are 30, 133, and 110 respectively. The special car catalogue has grown by 25 %, accounting for 9 percentage points of increase to 40 %, which is a new high this year. In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of special vehicles continues to be good. Dedicated car plates are worth paying attention to; At the same time, the ratio of passenger cars and passenger vehicles has declined.

China Merchants Securities believes that in this batch of passenger vehicles and dedicated vehicles, the ratio of Ternary applications is 80 <UNK> and 53 <UNK>, respectively, and the ring ratio has declined, but it still maintains a mainstream position. Lithium iron phosphate maintains an absolute advantage in passenger cars. At the same time, the use of lithium iron phosphate in special vehicles has increased significantly, and the proportion has increased from 28 in the 7th batch to 41 <UNK>.

Supporting batteries still maintain high energy density. Judging from the battery information that has been disclosed so far, the average energy density of passenger vehicles/passenger cars in this batch is 125/117Wh / kg, which is the same as the sixth batch level as a whole, slightly lower than the seventh batch, but still significantly higher than the previous 5 batches. level. We believe that this is related to the rising proportion of lithium iron phosphate. The high energy density of batteries is the general trend. The accompanying positive, negative, electrolyte, diaphragm, and additive industries also face opportunities and challenges.

Battery companies 'concentration has declined, and foreign companies(joint ventures) batteries have begun to enter the catalogue. According to the disclosed data, 104 models of the top ten battery factory supporting models in the 8th batch of catalogues have fallen to 55 %, and Ningde has maintained its leading position in the era. It is also the largest supporting company for special vehicles. In addition, Yi-Wei Li-Neng and Guoxuan Gaoke also have a higher proportion of special vehicles. Starting from the fourth batch, foreign capital or joint ventures such as Samsung, Sanyo Energy, and AESC began to enter the promotion catalogue.

There was a slight drop in the number of models.

The number of catalogue models has declined slightly: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the eighth batch of catalogues as scheduled on September 1. A total of 273 models from 95 companies in this batch of catalogues were selected, and the ring was slightly down by 3 points. At present, the first eight batches of catalogues that have been released have accumulated more than last year's full-year level.

Special-vehicle models have grown by 25 miles, and passenger car models have declined. This batch of catalogues includes passenger vehicles, passenger cars, and special vehicles, which are 30, 133, and 110 respectively. The special car catalogue has grown by 25 %, accounting for 9 percentage points of increase to 40 %, reaching a new high this year. The policy guidance effect is remarkable.

In contrast, passenger cars continued to perform relatively poorly, with a total of 133 items, and the ring ratio dropped by 13 points, accounting for 49 points. Passenger vehicles originally accounted for a relatively small number. Although this batch dropped by 27, there are still 30 models, which is more in line with expectations. Therefore, as far as the model is concerned, the continuous amount of follow-up special vehicles is worth paying attention to.

The share of pure electric vehicles has risen, and the contribution of special vehicles has been significant. A total of 249 pure electric vehicles account for about 91 <UNK>, including 29 passenger cars, passenger cars, and special vehicles, 110 models, and 110 models; There are a total of 21 plug-in hybrids (including hybrid) vehicles, accounting for about 8 vehicles, including 1 passenger car and 20 passenger cars. Since this batch of new models mainly comes from special vehicles, and special vehicles are all pure electric, so pure electric power accounts for a significant increase.

Policy uncertainty is gradually being eliminated: Overall, the first eight batches of catalogues this year have maintained the rhythm of one batch in January and have been released continuously and normally. The models from 1 to 8 batches of recommended catalogues are 185/201/634 / 453/309 / 201/282 / 273, respectively. A total of 2,538 new models. In addition, the double points policy is expected to land in the near future, and the uncertainties at the policy level are gradually eliminated. The new energy car market is expected to accelerate again.

The increase of lithium iron in Ternary passenger and professional mainstream vehicles

The Ternary maintains the mainstream position in passenger vehicles and dedicated vehicles, and the use of lithium iron phosphate in dedicated vehicles increases by three yuan to maintain the mainstream position between passenger vehicles and dedicated vehicles. For passenger vehicles, the Ternary application ratio of the first seven batches is 68 <UNK>. In the eighth batch, the ratio was 80, and the Ternary was in an absolute leading position. For special vehicles, the ratio of Ternary applications in the first seven batches was 68 <UNK>, and the ratio of three-yuan applications in the sixth and seventh batches was 75 <UNK> and 70 <UNK>, respectively, accounting for the same high ratio, but this batch. The ratio of three yuan in special vehicles dropped to 53 <UNK>, and lithium iron phosphate has been increased from 28 <UNK> in the 7th batch to 41 <UNK>. The Ternary is still in the mainstream, but the proportion of lithium iron phosphate used in special vehicles has increased significantly.

Battery composition analysis of various batches(vehicles)

Application of ternary battery in passenger car

Lithium iron phosphate batteries still occupy a dominant position in the passenger car market: the proportion of LFP applications in the first seven batches was 71 <UNK>, and 77 <UNK> in the seventh batch. The proportion of this batch rose to 79 <UNK>, and lithium iron phosphate remained dominant in the passenger car field. However, due to the overall downturn in the passenger car market, there is still pressure to resolve the demand for lithium iron phosphate.

Application of lithium iron phosphate battery in passenger car

In the long term, the main battlefield of power batteries is the passenger car market. From the current technology route selection, the trend of lithium ternary batteries becoming the mainstream choice of power batteries has been clear, although, under the influence of this batch of special vehicles, the proportion of iron phosphate has increased., But we do not think this can deny the long-term three-way mainstream.

High energy trends continue to rise at a slower rate

Researchers believe that the rate of continuing to increase the high energy density of batteries has slowed. Judging from the battery information that has been disclosed so far, the average energy density of passenger vehicles/passenger cars in this batch is 125/117Wh / kg, which is the same as the sixth batch level as a whole, slightly lower than the seventh batch, but still significantly higher than the previous 5 batches. level. We think that this is related to the increase in the proportion of lithium iron phosphate.

The proportion of high energy density has decreased: According to the latest version of the subsidy policy in 2017, 1.2 times the subsidy is given for the mass-energy density of a pure electric passenger car battery system higher than 120Wh / kg; For non-fast-charging pure electric passenger cars, the energy density of the battery system is higher than 115 Wh/kg, which is subsidized by 1.2 times.

According to the survey, in the 8th batch of catalogues, the proportion of pure electric passenger vehicles that met the 1.2-fold subsidy requirement was 67, which was lower than the 6th, but it was higher than the previous 5 batches. The proportion of high energy density in passenger cars dropped to 37 <UNK>, and the overall trend was to concentrate in the middle density.

In the first 8 batches of catalogues, pure passenger cars and passenger car batteries have disclosed the mean energy density(Whkg)

According to the plan, China's power battery energy density will reach 260Wh / kg in 2020, which is more than twice the current level of 120Wh / kg. It is expected to reach 140-150Wh / kg this year and will reach 180Wh / kg next year. Although there has been a certain decline in this batch, the trend of high energy density will not change, and technological progress is the way out. The improvement of energy density will also promote the advancement and iterative update of a series of core materials technologies such as positive, negative, diaphragm, electrolyte, and additive.

The ratio of the high energy density of pure passenger car and passenger car batteries in the first 8 batches of catalogues has been disclosed

Fast rechargeable batteries are still mainly used in the passenger car industry. This year, from 1 to 7 batches of catalogues, the data that have been disclosed have been quickly charged, and 79 fast rechargeable batteries are all used in the passenger car industry. Among them, Lithium titanate 53 accounted for the largest proportion, iron lithium 19 followed, lithium manganese acid 7. The fast charging rate of lithium iron phosphate batteries has reached 5.27 C. In the disclosed data, all iron lithium fast charging batteries are CATL products, Lithium titanate is mainly Zhuhai Yinlong, and lithium manganate is mainly provided by Huzhou Weihong

According to the disclosed data, 104 models of the top ten battery factory supporting models in the 8th batch of catalogues, accounting for a decrease in the proportion to 55, and 1 to 8 batches of the top ten cumulative supporting models 1296, accounting for 59. In the first three batches of the eighth batch, 46 were combined, accounting for 24 out of 190 announced, and 736 out of the top eight in the first eight batches, accounting for 39 out of 39. In this batch, the concentration of battery companies has decreased.

In the era of Ningde, it maintained its leading position and was the largest supporting manufacturer for special vehicles. In the first eight batches of catalogues, CATL was far ahead of the next 391 CIC Guoan, Wotema, and Yiwei Lithium. In this special vehicle catalogue, CATL is still the largest supplier of dedicated vehicles, followed by Yi-Wei Li-Neng, Guoxuan Gaoke, and Li-Shen.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.