China's power battery pattern dispute Who can change the one in Ningde era?

The top five power batteries in China will occupy 70-80 shares of the market. Two or three years later, the dominant situation in the Ningde era will surely change.

The rapid entry into the capital market in the era of Ningde undoubtedly brings great confidence to the power battery manufacturers with potential. On April 4, the 24th day after the update of the Ningde era prospectus, after the IPO meeting, the Ningde era passed smoothly.

The IPO, Ningde era intends to publicly issue A shares of not more than 217 million shares on the GEM, accounting for not less than 10% of the total number of shares after the issuance and plans to raise funds of 13.12 billion yuan. The Ningde era sponsor CITIC Jiantou Securities was reviewed on April 3.

"The profit-driven nature of capital is very strong. In the past few years, from the financial reports released in the era of Ningde, growth, and profitability have been very good. At the same time, power batteries are the top priority of electric vehicles, which is also one of the main reasons for good capital. An investor in the power battery industry said in an interview with a think-tank.

To a certain extent, the era of Ningde, which is "a single country," has accelerated the decline of the government and the reshuffle of industries after stricter supervision. The pattern of power cells will also become clearer, and some of the core technologies are missing, management capabilities are low, and there is no capital to boost companies. Will face the end of elimination and merger.

Power Battery "One Big Family"

Founded in the era of Ningde in 2011, it is currently the number one power battery system provider in domestic sales and focuses on the development, production, and sales of new energy vehicle power battery systems and energy storage systems. Power battery system sales are the main source of income in the era of Ningde. Due to its leading position in its industry and its valuation of more than 100 billion yuan, the Ningde era was dubbed the "Super Unicorn" by the outside world.

In 2017, the sales volume of the Ningde Power Battery System reached 11.84 GWh, accounting for nearly 30 % in China, and global power battery sales ranked first.

According to its prospectus, from 2015 to 2017, the net profits of shareholders belonging to the parent company in the Ningde era were 93.1 million, 3.022 billion, and 3.972 billion, respectively. The growth in 2016 and 2017 was 2.260 and 31.44 respectively in the previous year. <UNK>. Among them, the sales revenue of the power battery system was 4.98 billion yuan, 13.98 billion yuan, and 16.66 billion yuan, respectively, accounting for 87.98, 95.55, and 87.01 billion yuan of the main business income.

From 2015 to 2017, with the cooperation of the entire industrial chain, the costs of the Ningde era have been further controlled. In the past three years, the power battery system sales were 2.28 yuan/Wh, 2.06 yuan/Wh, and 1.41 yuan/Wh, the unit costs of the power battery system in the Ningde era were 1.33 yuan/Wh, 1.13 yuan/Wh, and 0.91 yuan/Wh, respectively.

In terms of cooperation partners, the Ningde era has cooperated with domestic car companies such as SAIC Group, Beiqi Group, Geely Group, Fuqi Group, CIC Group, Dongfeng Group and Chang ' a Group, Yutong Group, as well as international brands such as BMW and Volkswagen. At the same time, Cooperate with new companies such as Ulai Automobile to layout smart cars.

According to people familiar with the matter, the power battery companies that had previously bid for the Volkswagen MEB electric vehicle project with the Ningde era also included LG, Panasonic, and Samsung. The final order was obtained by the Ningde era. The Ningde era will also become the only power battery company that Volkswagen Group has purchased in China and applied to the MEB platform.

To create an "era of Ningde"

According to statistics, in 2018, the national sales volume of new energy vehicles was about 1 million, and the corresponding demand for power batteries was about 45 GWh; In 2020, the national sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 2 million vehicles, corresponding to the demand for power batteries of about 110 GWh. Now, Ningde's entry into the global power battery market will bring incremental space, and industrial chain companies face almost double the market space.

At the same time, China's power battery shuffle began in 2017, with nearly 200 companies entering the announcement in 2016 and fewer than 100 in 2017. Some experts believe that the number of companies entering the announcement in 2018 will be reduced to half that of 2017. It is likely that by 2020, only 20 or 30 Chinese power batteries will have entered the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

So, who's going to be the next Ningde era? "The top five power batteries in China will occupy 70-80 shares of the market. Two or three years later, the dominant situation in the Ningde era will surely change. Other companies, even some unknown companies with smart manufacturing capabilities, can form a pattern of running with CATL. "The National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund," said Fangjianhua, partner and president of the new energy car venture capital sub-fund.

However, at present, in the global power battery sales rankings, power battery manufacturers that occupy a certain market share mainly include Ningde era, Panasonic, BYD, Wotema, LG Chemical, Guoxuan Gaoke, Samsung SDI, and Bic.

"BYD has a huge battery development team. Battery development and quality control are good, and battery consistency safety is good. But since BYD's batteries are only for internal use, I think BYD's battery business should be split early for use by the outside world, losing to the rapidly rising Ningde era in terms of the scale of expansion. On April 8, Wangbinggang, former director of the China Automotive Technology Research Center and an industry battery expert, said in an interview with the think tank.

In this regard, BYD related people told think tank Jun, "Now the battery business will not be dismantled separately, but in the future, it will cooperate with more auto companies for foreign sales, but it will take more than 70 to export the battery business before it can be dismantled and listed separately. "

Fangjianhua, on the other hand, told think tank king that some companies with a high starting point focus on smart manufacturing, according to the digital design of the factory, these companies have great opportunities.

"Including CATL, there is not yet complete intelligent manufacturing, and it has not yet been fully automated. The future power battery factory must be a fully automated factory for digital intelligent manufacturing. This can truly narrow the gap between Japan and South Korea. On the technical route, the key is to gradually narrow the gap between the level of automation and the level of intelligent manufacturing management. "Fangjianhua stressed.

In fact, compared with Japanese and Korean companies, China has policy and market advantages. The management and manufacturing level of China's power battery companies is narrowing the gap between Japan and South Korea. The Advancement of power cells comes from the use of applications and the choice of technical routes. In the Ningde era, there were also advantages over Panasonic.

Tesla, for example, did not have a large square and soft-pack batteries on the market when it made electric cars. In that year, there were only 1,8650 batteries, and Matsushita naturally became a battery supplier to Tesla cars, but the 1,8650 battery was not born for power batteries. According to the results of tests conducted by European institutions on 18650 batteries, Square batteries, and soft-pack batteries, Square hard shell batteries are suitable.

The use of square batteries in the Ningde era is the most suitable one at the moment, but this does not mean that the Ningde era can rest easy. Whether the future technology route will develop into soft-pack batteries is more to be expected.

"Whoever will become the next Ningde era will need to continuously improve in terms of technology, quality, price, and supply capabilities. This is the core element of competition. "Wangbinggang finally said.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.