Expert: Beware of the risks of overheating in the lithium battery industry

In recent years, with the explosion of new energy(6.390, 0.06, 0.95 %) automotive production and sales in China, lithium batteries that are "closely related" to new energy vehicles have also ushered in a "golden age".

As a result, the number of A-share companies related to the lithium battery industry's performance has mostly increased. As of July 31, 2017, 85 of the 117 listed companies related to the lithium battery concept had issued half-yearly earnings forecasts, of which 66 had been prefaced, accounting for 77.6 %, according to the statistics of the Choice financial terminal(15.090, 0.06, 0.40 %).

It should be noted that in the context of the new energy car explosion, a growing number of companies are flocking to the lithium battery industry, and some of them have entered the company through cross-border acquisitions to increase their performance, and a new round of over-investment in lithium batteries is emerging. In response, Linboqiang, Dean of the China Energy Policy Research Institute of Xiamen University, told the "Daily Economic News" reporter on August 4 that electric vehicles are currently overheating because some manufacturers are not making much money in reality, if lithium batteries are expanding production. After, If the next wave of electric vehicles does not follow, the lithium battery industry will have a greater risk.

Performance Forecast for Most Concept Units

According to data from Oriental Fortune Choice, as of July 31, 2017, in the half-yearly report of 85 listed companies related to lithium batteries, 7 of them are expected to have a net profit of more than 500 million yuan; There are 39 more than 100 million yuan, accounting for 45.88 %; Net profit is expected to be negative, with only five.

Lithium-ion battery leader Tianqi Lithium(58.000.300.52 %)(002466, SZ), Lithium Lithium(69.980, 1.03, 1.49 %)(002460, SZ), Guancheng Datong(5.110, 0.03, 0.59 %)(60,067, SH) and other outstanding performance. Tianqi Lithium estimated that the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies in the first half of this year was 830 million to 930 million yuan, an increase of 11.14 % to 24.53 % year-on-year. The Lithium industry is expected to make profits of 528 million to 668 million yuan in the first half of this year, an increase of 90 % to 140 % year-on-year.

In this regard, Linboqiang believes that "the government is promoting the rapid development of new energy vehicles, so the demand for lithium battery industry will be very large, so the performance of lithium battery companies will be better."

It is worth noting that the lithium battery industry, which has been used as a "hot bar" in recent years, has also attracted some listed companies to "cross the border" to join the lithium battery army, and this is "a few joys and sorrows".

The "Daily Economic News" reporter noticed that in addition to the failure of the reorganization of Aotejia(3.630, 0.00, 0.000 %)(002239, SZ) and Haishida, the lithium battery industry has also emerged Buddha Plastics(4.920, 0.09, 1.86 %)(000973, SZ) 1.3 billion fixed-increase lithium battery project failure and other failure cases. In addition, the performance of the three lithium battery companies of Rongjie Lithium, Suzhou Jieli and Meibai Electronics in 2016 did not meet expectations, and the possibility of such failure in the future will gradually increase.

The Institute of Li-TV Research and Research of High-tech Industries believes that since this year, the number of cases of the active marriage of power battery companies has increased, mainly due to two reasons: First, the direct impact of the formal implementation of policies such as subsidization and pre-allocation to liquidation. Battery companies and car companies face financial pressure during the period of subsidy absence; Second, China's new energy automotive industry continues to improve, battery companies have accelerated the pace of production expansion, and liquidity is tight.

Linboqiang believes that listed companies need to be careful to cross the border into lithium battery companies. In his view, new energy vehicles are hot, but in reality, manufacturers are not very profitable. "At present, the relatively hot state of new energy vehicles is not sustainable. It may cool down or return to reality. Therefore, it is necessary to be cautious to enter the lithium battery industry that is closely related to new energy vehicles."

Han Xiaoping, a senior researcher at the energy research center of China's energy network, said that some listed companies could not find new profit growth points, so the purchase of lithium battery companies, which does not exclude some lithium battery companies and not so large economic benefits, but overall, the lithium battery industry is still relatively competitive.

Behind overcapacity: insufficient supply at the high end

New energy vehicles sold 507,000 vehicles in 2016, up 53 % from a year earlier, according to the China Automobile Industry Association. Due to the continued high growth of the new energy car market, there has been a gap in power battery production capacity and insufficient supply. At one time, there was even a phenomenon that "the sales volume of new energy vehicle companies was determined by the output of battery companies." For this reason, in 2015 and 2016, the investment volume of domestic power battery companies has continued to grow and production capacity has continued to expand. As a result, the crisis of excess power battery capacity has gradually emerged.

At the "China New Energy Power Vehicle Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance" conference held on July 20 last year, Wuborong, Dean of the Materials Institute of Beijing Polytechnic University, pointed out that by the end of 2016, the planned power battery production capacity of the country will reach 60 GWh, but relevant data show that The power battery capacity requirement in 2016 is 30 GWh. By this calculation, the overall capacity utilization rate in 2016 will be about 50 %, and a large amount of production capacity will be idle or shorthanded.

At the same time, under the temptation of high growth space for new energy vehicles in recent years, power battery manufacturers continue to expand their production capacity. Wangzidong, director of the Power Battery Laboratory of the North Vehicle Research Institute and director of the National 863 Electric Vehicle Major Power Battery Test Center, once predicted in an interview. In 2017, China's planned power battery production capacity of 170 GWh, 170 GWh can meet the total demand of 500,000 electric buses and 5 million electric passenger vehicles per year, and according to China's new energy vehicle development plan, this may be China's goal after 2025.

In contrast to the above situation, according to the "Shanghai Securities Daily" report, in the overall power battery production crisis, some downstream car companies are currently troubled by the shortage of batteries. This has created a situation where "high-end production capacity is insufficient and the low end is excessive."

In this regard, Linboqiang pointed out that the above problems reflect that the production of low-end lithium batteries in China is already saturated, but high-end lithium batteries are still different from the United States, South Korea, Japan, and other countries, and the domestic lithium battery technology content is still relatively backward compared to foreign countries.

"We need to note that if we want to create more value companies, we can't always develop low-end companies with small profit margins at the low end and large profit margins at the high end. We need to focus on high-end lithium batteries." "Han Xiaoping said.

At the beginning of this year, Miaowei, Minister of Industry and Information Technology, said at the forum of the 100-person meeting of electric vehicles in China that in the future, it will strengthen production capacity regulation and further promote technological progress. By revising the regulations on the access of new energy vehicle manufacturers and products, it will raise the barriers to technology access and prevent low-level duplication. In response to the pattern of "scattered, small and weak" development, we will establish a mechanism for pre-warning production capacity and guide enterprises to plan production capacity development plans in a rational manner.

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