Compare the development prospects of lithium, fuel and lead acid three power batteries

New energy has already established electric power as the mainstream development direction, but there are many different standards in battery selection. Lithium-ion batteries, fuel cells and lead-acid batteries are widely used in the market. The future of which battery is clearer, more attractive, the industry is full of controversy.

In my view, all three batteries have their own characteristics. Although the lead-acid battery has the earliest time, it has already been put out of the hat, but it still occupies with very low cost and more mature technology.

So I give everyone a look at science and see which battery is more representative of the future direction of new energy.

Lithium battery Prince waiting to be enthroned

Lithium batteries are not strictly new energy, and even energy is not considered, because lithium batteries are not like chemical batteries. The chemical battery itself is the energy source, and the chemical reaction in the battery generates the current. When the reaction is completed, the battery life is over.

Lithium batteries are not energy sources, but they can make new energy possible. For example, solar energy, just in the daytime, can be stored in batteries and used at night. Wind energy is also uncertain due to the amount of wind, and the electrical load is also fluctuating. When the wind is strong, there is more electricity, but it may not be used up. It can be stored and used when the wind is small.

In China's manufacturing 2025, the government first wrote lithium batteries as a new energy source in the report, which is the legendary power lithium battery.

In China's manufacturing 2025, the energy density target of the power battery is 350 watt-hours/kg. The number of new energy vehicles corresponding to the new energy vehicles is expected to reach 1 million by 2020, and 2 million by 2030. The important reason behind this is to link the power battery with the new energy revolution, which has provided great development prospects for the power battery industry.

So what is a power lithium battery? The Baidu explanation is that a battery that uses lithium metal or lithium alloy as a negative electrode material and uses a non-aqueous electrolyte solution can be divided into two types: lithium metal batteries and lithium ion batteries. Among them, lithium-ion batteries do not contain metallic lithium, and can be charged, which can greatly satisfy consumer demand. At this point, lithium batteries are gradually being valued by people.

As the sales of new energy vehicles increase year by year, the demand for lithium batteries is also expanding. Taking the 2014 data as an example, according to the 20% penetration rate of the lithium ion battery power battery, the market size of the lithium ion battery is about 15,000 sets, according to the average price of each group of power lithium ion batteries is 50,000 Yuan, the total market is about It is 748 million Yuan. As a core component, lithium batteries are welcoming a good opportunity for development, and at the same time ushered in the bottleneck of industrial development.

Moreover, lithium battery companies are facing the dilemma of insufficient raw materials and rising costs. The most important lithium carbonate in lithium battery raw materials has been speculated by the market, making the price rapidly upstream, which has doubled within half a year. Lithium carbonate accounts for more than 50% of the raw material cost of lithium batteries, so the price of lithium carbonate soared twice in half a year, and the total cost of lithium batteries rose by 20%.

Insufficient supply of upstream raw materials and the development of new energy vehicles have increased market demand, which has led to an increase in the price of lithium batteries. In addition, human factors cannot be ignored, market speculative forces intervene, and institutions take the opportunity to speculate, making lithium batteries spot rise sharply.

Although the rate of increase is too fast, the development prospects of lithium batteries are still optimistic, especially this year, domestic new energy vehicles will maintain rapid development and the demand for lithium batteries may still be in short supply. Domestic lithium battery companies will continue to expand production jobs.

It is estimated that by 2017, the lithium battery industry market will reach about 230 billion yuan. By 2020, the industry market will reach 600 billion Yuan. The lithium battery industry market still has a large room for growth, and the future prospects are optimistic.

Fuel cell Japan and South Korea prefer but technical complexity

A fuel cell (Fuel Cell) is a power generation device that directly converts chemical energy present in a fuel and an oxidant into electrical energy. Fuel and air are fed into the fuel cell separately, and the electricity is wonderfully produced. It looks like a positive and negative electrode and electrolyte, like a battery, but in fact it can't "storage electricity" but a "power plant." However, it requires electrodes and electrolytes as well as redox reactions to generate electricity.

Hydrogen is the main element of use in fuel cells. In a narrow sense, the fuel cell we are talking about now is generally equivalent to a hydrogen fuel cell. Hydrogen fuel as a prominent feature of energy is pollution-free, efficient, and recyclable. Hydrogen is a colorless gas that burns 142 kilojoules of hydrogen, which is three times the calorific value of gasoline. The product of its combustion is water, no ash and waste gas, and will not pollute the environment, so hydrogen is considered to be the most ideal energy source in the 21st century.

In recent years, Europe, the United States and Japan have made some achievements in the research and development of hydrogen fuel vehicles under the support of the government, including giants such as Mercedes-Benz, GM and Toyota. The Japanese government is vigorously promoting the development of hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in the country. According to the "New Growth Strategy" plan, the Japanese government has proposed the following goal: the market share of next-generation eco-cars, including hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, will increase from about 23% in 2013 to 50%-70% in 2030. At the same time, subsidies for hydrogen fuel cell vehicles will be provided. In 2025, the price will be the same as that of hybrid vehicles. The unified standards and international standards to promote their overseas sales are listed as key implementation projects.

Honda's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle Clarity will be available for sale later this year. The car was unveiled at the Los Angeles Auto Show in November last year.

Clarity's interior looks good, but its innovation is still under the hood. Unlike traditional car engines or all-electric systems, Clarity uses hydrogen fuel cells to power it. This advanced power system is not the first to be used - Honda began selling hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in 2005 and has been selling it in the US, Germany and Japan for several years. Simply put, fuel cell vehicles convert hydrogen fuel into electricity, and the only emission is water, which is super environmentally friendly. But it is simple to say, but it is quite difficult to actually do it.

John Mendel, executive vice president of Honda's automotive division, said: 'Clarity hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is a disruptive product that offers an uncompromising zero-emissions user experience, whether performance, usability, mileage or the charging speed is comparable to today's gasoline cars. '

But to be honest, for the new energy vehicles like this, my first thought is "expensive", the car that specializes in serving the rich, and ordinary people like us can only be far away from watching.

Moreover, there is still a big gap between the current situation of hydrogen fuel vehicles and the reality. Fuel cell production costs are high, and the construction of hydrogen refueling stations is even more difficult than the charging stations for lithium battery electric vehicles. In addition, hydrogen has a hidden danger and limited sources of hydrogen.

At present, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have little advantage in competition with traditional fuel vehicles and electric vehicles. It is expected that by 2027, FCVs will have a market share of less than 0.1%. For hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, current customers have only three options: Toyota Mirai, Hyundai Tucson FCV, and Honda Clarity, and these vehicles are limited to Japan, California, Korea, and several other small markets.

Simai Automotive Information Consulting expects to have 17 FCVs listed in 2027, including products from several European automakers. However, the overall forecast for FCV is that the annual sales volume is only 70,000 units, which is less than 0.1% of the market share.

“There is a saying in the industry that there is no way to sell a car without an energy station,” said Toyota’s Managing Director Sato Yasuhiko. “Toyota does not want to be an energy company at all, so I want to unite with various energy companies to do this business.” It is true that it is true.

Lead-acid batteries are unexpectedly not eliminated

Lead-acid batteries sound more like a product from ancient times, but one thing you absolutely can't think of. Currently, more than 80% of new energy vehicles on the market use lead-acid batteries. The usage rate of lithium batteries is generally low. The development of new energy vehicles will drive the consumption of lead-acid batteries to a greater extent.

The use rate of lithium batteries is generally low. The reason is that lithium batteries are not mature enough in power battery technology, and safety needs to be improved. In addition, high-tech lithium batteries rely on imports, and the price is relatively expensive compared with lead-acid batteries, which is difficult to obtain. Therefore, in a certain sense, the development of new energy vehicles will drive the consumption of lead-acid batteries to a greater extent.

Our current electric vehicles use lead-acid batteries, which are not stupid for electric vehicle companies. I don’t know how to adopt new technologies, but in the batteries that are currently available in energy capacity, only this is available, others are not mature. Or the industry chain cannot be matched, or the cost is too high to be commercially available.

Therefore, the lead-acid battery has not yet launched a historical stage. On the contrary, it is a result of the compromise of the market to a certain extent.

It is also worth noting that the high cost of batteries has always been one of the main problems that restrict the development of new energy vehicles. Even with the high state subsidies, the price of electric vehicles for more than 200,000 Yuan is still many consumers feel unbearable. Ironically, however, in the streets of third- and fourth-tier cities, there are plenty of cheap electric cars.

Lead-acid batteries are generally used in low-speed and urban short-distance electric vehicles. Although lead-acid batteries have low energy density, they are extremely popular in small and medium-sized cities because of their low cost and low price. However, the cruising range of these electric vehicles is difficult to reach more than 100 kilometers. In addition, the state does not explicitly prohibit this, so the attitude towards such electric vehicles depends on local governments.

In theory, although lead-acid batteries are still at the peak of glory, they are bound to be quickly eliminated in the next few years.

Summary

The above three types of batteries are currently the most discussed on the market, and some of the technical tricks of the swords are not necessary to come up with the necessary explanations. Looking at the big environment, it is not a problem for lithium batteries to become the protagonist of the lead-acid battery. As for the future development prospects of fuel cells, I think that if the key problems are not solved, the fuel cell will still be unable to get rid of the "small and fresh" status, and can only live in the beautiful people.

If we do not solve the key problems, fuel cells still cannot get rid of the status of "small and fresh", can only reside in people's beautiful vision.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.