2018 lithium battery energy storage costs will drop rapidly?

The latest data shows that the national electricity supply and demand in January-November 2017 is generally loose. The cumulative growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society increased year-on-year, and the cumulative electricity consumption in all provinces achieved positive growth; the electricity consumption in industry and manufacturing increased year-on-year, but the growth rate was lower than that in the whole society; the cumulative growth rate has increased year-on-year. The non-ferrous industry's electricity consumption for the month has been negative for three consecutive months; the growth rate of power generation capacity has slowed down, and the power generation capacity of thermal power has been negative for three consecutive months: the utilization hours of power generation equipment in the country have decreased year-on-year, and the utilization hours of hydropower equipment have decreased. Continued narrowing; nationwide cross-regional and inter-provincial power generation increased year-on-year; new power generation capacity increased year-on-year, and wind power generation capacity was basically the same as last year.

From January to November, the newly built power generation capacity of the national infrastructure was 112.86 million kilowatts, which was 27.97 million kilowatts more than the same period of the previous year. Among them, 10.27 million kilowatts of hydropower, 39.25 million kilowatts of thermal power, 2.18 million kilowatts ofspecial power, 12.52 million kilowatts of wind power, and 48.65 million kilowatts of solar power. Hydropower, thermal power, wind power and solar power generation were 130, 580, 50, and 24.72 million kilowatts more than the same period of the previous year, andspecial power was reduced to 5.03 million kilowatts compared with the same period of the previous year.

Clean energy completed investment increased year-on-year

From January to November, the investment in power supply projects of major power generation enterprises nationwide reached 232.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, hydropower 49.2 billion yuan, an increase of 2.1%; thermal power 67.4 billion yuan, down 27.4%;special power 33.6 billion yuan, down 12.9%; wind power 57.6 billion yuan, down 16.0%. The investment in clean energy such as hydropower,special power and wind power accounted for 71.1% of the investment in power supply, an increase of 5.6 percentage points over the same period of the previous year.

Under the gradual increase in the proportion of investment in clean energy, how will China's power equipment develop in 2018?

Top Ten Conjectures of China's Power Equipment Industry in 2018

Guess one: domestic wind power installed capacity of 25-30GW. In the first half of 2017, the Energy Bureau's data abandonment rate was 13.6%, down 7.6 percentage point year-on-year, and the wind curtailment situation improved significantly. The new installed capacity is expected to reach 25-30GW in 2018, with the main growth coming from the six provinces.

Guess 2: The newly installed offshore wind power has reached GW level. As of August 2017, the offshore wind power project under construction in China was 4.8 GW, and the scale of projects that have not been started in the past year has reached 2.8 GW. It is estimated that the installed capacity of offshore wind power in China will exceed 1GW in 2018.

Conjecture 3: Distributed continues to lead the development of the photovoltaic industry. In 2018, the price of distributed PV on-grid degraded slightly lower than expected. With the decline of prices of PV modules and other products, it is expected that under the new price system, distributed PV can still achieve better yields and continue to lead domestic PV development. .

Conjecture 4: The proportion of gas and electricity has increased steadily, and distributed gas has ushered in spring. According to the plan, by the end of 2020, China will build 147 natural gas distributed energy projects, with installed capacity reaching 16.54 million kilowatts, and distributed gas is expected to enter a period of high prosperity.

Conjecture 5: The production and sales of new energy vehicles have broken through one million and entered the next era of growth. The power battery reached a balance of fuel and electricity two years ahead of schedule. The logic of the growth of new energy vehicle production and sales will be changed from the policy-oriented "to the government to subsidize" logic to the quality-oriented "market-oriented customers." New energy passenger vehicles will enter the period of production and sales, driving the production and sales of new energy vehicles to exceed one million.

Guess 6: The price of the power battery PACK reaches 1 yuan / wh. Estimated by the pessimistic situation of the expected subsidy draft, the 18-year ternary power battery does not include the tax price of nearly 1050 yuan / kwh; no upstream material layout, battery pack shipments of power battery companies gross margin or will drop to 26%.

Conjecture 7: Lithium-ion energy storage costs are rapidly declining, and large-scale development is expected. With the further decline in the price of lithium batteries, the economics of energy storage will gradually become prominent. In 2018, the storage capacity of lithium battery storage in the domestic auxiliary service market and industrial and commercial users is expected to achieve large-scale development.

Guess eight: power battery ternary high nickel accelerated, 18 years NCM811 breakthrough. With the 18-year national subsidy policy to increase the "reward-level" energy density requirement to 140 wh / kg, NCM622 / 811 ternary materials will accelerate penetration, pure electric passenger cars will become the main driving force for ternary battery growth.

Guess nine: The negative electrode enters the price increase channel, and the high quality requirements exceed the low price appeal. The negative electrode cost is only 6%, the battery company's sensitivity to the negative price is reduced, and the demand will be upgraded from the "capacity/price" requirement to the "capacity/life/rate". The price will no longer be the main consideration for the battery company. .

Guess 10: The soft pack power battery penetration is fully accelerated. Soft packs are the most promising product system for achieving the energy density requirements of national power batteries by virtue of the lightweight of the outer packaging materials. Soft pack power batteries are the preferred way to increase energy density. The most technical barriers in the soft pack sector will benefit from the aluminum-plastic film segment.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.