How many electric cars will be in the world in 2020?

Global electric car ownership has 3.7 million vehicles in 2017, which is expected to reach 13 million in 2020, and nearly 130 million cars in 2030.

Recently, the international energy agency (International Energy Agency) released the "2018 report on electric vehicles (GlobalEVOutlook2018), reports from the vehicle market, electric facilities, energy demand and emissions, power battery, policy, and the prospect of 2030 6 aspects, such as reading for the global electric car market. The following is the newspaper about the content of sorting and refining.

The vehicle market

In 2017, the electric car total global sales of more than 1 million units, up 54% from a year earlier. Among them, 39% of Norway's new car sales are electric cars, electric cars from Norway on proportion became the development of the vanguard. In second and third place respectively is Iceland and Sweden, the electric car sales accounted for 11.7% and 6.3% respectively. Electric vehicle market share in China is only 2.2%, but contributed more than half of global sales, and the world's second largest electric car market (USA) sales of more than twice as many. In addition, sales of electric buses at around 100000, and two rounds of electric vehicle sales estimates that about 30 million vehicles.

Report data show that in 2017 the global electric passenger car market has 3.1 million cars, up 57% from a year earlier, with the data of 60% in 2016.Of the Chinese market has more than 1 million cars, the global share accounted for 40%.The European Union and the United States market share of 40%.Norway is the world's electric car market share of the highest, accounted for 6.4%.In addition, only the Netherlands and Sweden share more than 1%.

The market is still the main driving force policy factors. Including tax cuts and subsidies, fuel vehicle emissions rise and some regional restrictions, the government also will public procurement vehicle, promoted the further promotion of electric vehicles. In addition, the city public transport will be electric model's fastest-growing markets, electric trucks will gradually toward commercialization.

Governments further deployment of electric vehicle market plan, strengthen the electric car market confidence. The car manufacturer (OEM) also released its own electrification strategy.

Supporting facilities condition

In 2017, many countries issued their own high power charging standard (greater than 200 kw).Even if there is no corresponding to the vehicle, some of the more high power charging infrastructure has also started to layout.

At present, private charging pile number is much higher than public class charging pile.

The goal determination of charging infrastructure will help efforts to build a network of charging, most countries only emphasize the charging highway network layout.

According to the survey, in northern Europe, owner obvious preference for family and charging infrastructure in the workplace; Norway and Sweden for more than 90% of the electric car users car charging at home, 20% to 40% of owners in the workplace for car batteries. In the United States, the average is about 0.9 family electric car charger.

China has 232000, according to data from the 2017 private charging pile. China electric car charging infrastructure promotion alliance survey data show that private charging pile accounted for about 80% of the total market charging pile.

Energy demand and emissions

In 2017, the global electric power consumption 54 TWH, higher than that of the Greek national power consumption. China accounts for 91% of electricity consumption, mostly buses and two rounds of car consumption. Light vehicle power consumption growth significantly, is higher than passenger cars and two wheels.

China due to the electric market, the largest carbon dioxide emission reduction performance is best. So far, an increase in the number of electric cars rise demand for electricity, and affects the transmission of power grid. For the optimization of electric vehicle charging time, can transfer load, in order to ensure a good match between power supply and demand. For most of the electric vehicle charging time from the evening peak late into the night, night use of wind power, daytime use photovoltaic power generation and so on.

The power battery

Electric vehicle power battery in the past decade significantly reduce the cost and performance has been improved obviously. Over the past five years, the sustainable development of electronic technology to become lithium ion power battery main drivers of competitiveness rise.

Are the major factors affect the cost of power battery of battery chemistry materials properties, large scale power battery cost, power battery group size and speed of charging.

Lithium ion batteries will continue to be the first choice for power battery, battery performance can be improved through technical improvement. Other cell types to popularize and apply is expected to begin after 2030.

In the next few years, the battery technology development is likely to include:

For the cathode, reduce cobalt content in the cathode current chemistry and improve the proportion of nickel; For the anode, further improved the structure of graphite, achieve higher charging efficiency; For the development of electrolyte, gel electrolyte materials, solid electrolyte may also be introduced and further improve the energy density and battery safety.

Lithium and lithium sulfur batteries air to the low level of technology, practical performance remains to be tested, and the performance advantage remains unproven

Relevant policy

Countries have adopted a series of policies related to promote electric cars. By China, Europe, Japan, the United States and India, including public transportation, a variety of means to stimulate the electric car purchasing and investment, and subsidies for the purchase price and charging infrastructure for fuel economy standards and other measures, including zero emissions vehicle tasks, etc.

Policy priorities should be phasing out fossil fuel subsidies. Strengthen the carbon tax, fuel formulated strict quality requirements to reduce air pollution, develop and implement vehicle emission requirements.

Promote public procurement of electric vehicles, can increase the visibility of the electric car to the public and can stimulate the related business. Public procurement is also help in the early development of charging infrastructure and standards.

Facts have proven that lower the price of the electric car is an effective policy to stimulate the market. Subsidies for purchases of motor vehicles and vehicle purchase tax exemption is to improve the electric car sales is the most effective leverage. Local measures can also be conducive to the electric car, such as free parking, free of charge, and set up the electric car priority lanes, to reduce the tolls, etc.

In ensuring maximum battery limit at the same time, improve the economic value of battery can raise the environmental sustainability of battery production. Vehicle manufacturers, battery manufacturers, consumers or the third party stakeholders have at the end of the battery life and is responsible for the battery, the responsibility is not clear. Shall establish and improve the transparency of the global certification system, the second use to scrap trace mechanism, tracking and improving supply and processing chain. The government can provide effective incentive measures, to ensure that the surplus value maximization of the battery.

Outlook 2030

Global electric car ownership for 3.7 million vehicles in 2017, is expected to reach 13 million in 2020, nearly 130 million cars in 2030.

Subregional perspective, China and Europe will remain a key market for electric cars.

These two areas of electric buses market share is also higher than other regions. European diesel fuel tax is higher than any other parts of the world, for the power transformation provides an early case economically viable. Europe's extra special support is expected to further increase.

The development of China's electric public transit industry thanks to strong policy support. In the vision of 2030, China is expected to electric buses and trucks are the sum of the ownership of close to 40%, and 35% in Europe. By 2030, China's electric two-wheelers and tricycle market share will reach more than 90%.The rest of the world will also usher in change, but slower.

As the growth of the electric car penetration, the number of charging infrastructure are also on the increase. Supporting facilities deployment will be the first to occur in the cities, and expand the coverage, mainly including the highway, inter-city road network main road.

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