Discussion on the current power battery overcapacity

"From 10th Five Year plan to 13th Five Year plan, new energy vehicle gradually got the fast development road. The power battery system is increasing year by year, while energy cost is falling." On January 21, 2018 Electric Car Committee of 100 in China, Ouyang Minggao, the Chinese electric car executive vice director, member of Chinese Academy of sciences, said that during the process of the development of the electric car energy aspect ratio of power battery, safety is always the most important factor, and performance indexes such as specific energy are on the second position.

Travel distance Ming-Gao Ouyang said the increasing need to rely on battery energy increase, but the car can't throw battery electric vehicle technology to promote the whole, the vehicle integrated core technology is to reduce the power consumption, power consumption is the most important all-electric vehicle integration level.

Power battery installed capacity in 2017, leading to the central market share, new energy vehicles in China + PHEV (EV) power battery installed gross capacity is about 36.24 GWh, compared with 2016 28 GWh of installed capacity, an increase of about 29.4%.

It is understood that the current power battery 42% cost of new energy vehicles, played important roles in the new energy industry. According to the measure, when the electric car sales of 10 million vehicles a year, the industrial chain scale will put into one hundred million yuan, is expected to the demand of power battery for 500 GWH.

Excess capacity is up to 257%?

In 2017, the power battery market trend in our country.2017, our country power battery technology has made certain progress, mainly embodied in the battery, power consumption and charging.

First, constantly improve industry policy, our country basic building a relatively perfect system of power battery recycling standards. Action plan to promote the development of the auto power battery industry, has been clear about the future direction and goal, power battery industry which by 2020, the new type power lithium battery monomer ratio more energy than 300 Wh/kg, the cost dropped below $1 / Wh, by 2025, monomer ratio energy of 500 Wh/kg.

Through technical policies to guide and support, our country power battery technology level obviously. To September 2017, high energy density lithium iron phosphate monomer has reached 160 Wh/kg, the system can achieve 130 Wh/kg,18650 battery monomer energy density reached 240 wh/kg, the system can reach 150 Wh/kg. Costs continue to reduce power battery system, is by 2.5 yuan/Wh 2015 dropped to below 1.5 yuan/Wh.

Second, the rapid growth of power battery capacity, 2017 with an annual output of 220 GWH of can break through, up 125% from a year earlier, at the same time, a TuiPo and reaffirmed publicized models of subsidies, such as short, power battery industry development is affected by different degree, among them, there is structural overcapacity risk, product inventory backlog serious power battery enterprises.

"The supply of power battery will continue to excess, will peak in 2018, excess production capacity up to 257%."Shenzhen bay, new energy materials co., LTD., chairman of He Xueqin c in China on January 21, electric power battery summit, in terms of power battery core materials, soaring prices of raw materials, materials production cost pressure, subsidies after TuiPo, factory price pressure, the resulting appears structured overcapacity is the result of the battery materials.

He Xueqin believes that a solution to the problem of the excess capacity is one of the research and development 350 wh/kg high energy density battery, in terms of passenger car, life should be more than 500 km, improve the energy density, battery costs will be greatly reduced.

In addition, power battery installed capacity continues to increase, industry concentration continued ascension, shows the characteristics of the strong constant strong power battery market, industry reshuffle is inevitable. Power battery industry investment is still hot, according to incomplete statistics, last year the domestic power battery related investment projects as many as 100, a total investment of more than 215.9 billion yuan.

It is understood that some domestic enterprises dense layout 21700 lithium batteries, ford, mainly in the far east, day Peng power, Jiangsu Lishen, weft lithium can, new energy, Bick, etc., the lion of Lishen and weft lithium to formal production, the rest of the enterprise is in a state under construction or planning and put into production. In addition to the layout of 21700 batteries, High nickel ternary battery will be the enterprise layout, emphasis in the future.

At present, the ternary battery manufacturer mainly used NCM333 and NCM523, NCM622 part has entered the enterprise material supply chain, in the development stage of NCM811 also is expected to start in the near future applications, power battery energy density from 200 Wh/kg to 250-300 Wh/kg.

Solid-state batteries has become a new research hotspot, Toyota's plan was launched in 2022, all solid state battery electric vehicle, the Honda is studying how to application of solid-state battery technology in the power battery, BMW with Solid Power next-generation solid-state batteries of electric cars, develop the public plan production range 2025 1000 kilometers of solid state battery electric cars. At home, yoga can white dragon has released the first quick charge type solid state battery products, quick charge class solid-state lithium battery production line has been formally put into production, the annual output of 100 million Wh, mainly applied to the new energy vehicles and storage areas.

In addition, power battery enterprises and the whole car entered the stage of depth cooperation. The porch in Beijing new energy era, Ningde with Saic set up two companies, power battery enterprises cooperate with OEMs to achieve depth binding, to find a solution to the technical promotion, reduce the cost and lock market breakthrough.

Fu can technologies (Ganzhou) co., LTD., President of king yu argues that the upstream enterprises manufacturing and upstream materials are relatively small, understanding the lithium battery is not as profound as factory understand, research and development, personnel cannot meet the needs of the car factory.

"We would hope in terms of the whole industry chain upstream and downstream, we do everything, we do, we are good at doing it deeply, make through." Matsushita electric energy technology development center CTO colts ZongJiu said.

"An electric car, starting from the design, determines the adopt what kind of battery, choose what kind material solution, and the true industry chain cooperation, from materials research and development design began." He Xueqin said, from building materials to the vehicle of the whole industry chain cooperation alliance, create real competitive electric car star products; Will the vehicle design concept and positioning from the whole industry chain, developed implants, avoiding homogeneity competition, establish a differentiation advantage.

Battery recycling layout is urgently needed

January 21, Chinese Academy of engineering Feng Chun sun in the 21st-century economic report reporter interview, to the problem of power battery recycling because the first batch of the electric car has run more than 200000 kilometers, has entered the BaoFeiQi, so recovery is imminent.

"By 2020 power battery will probably accumulate scrap of 320000 tons, even 500000 tons is possible." Central south university professor Li Jian introduction, in 2017, lithium-ion batteries recycling market will reach $1.78 billion by 2030 up to $23.72 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of about 22.1%, lithium iron phosphate will become the fastest recovery battery types in the market.

Global cobalt in terms of raw materials, the annual output of 150000 tons, China imports 95% of cobalt, cobalt consumption accounts for about 60% of the world, China cobalt consumption in China is about 45800 tons in 2016, battery cobalt accounted for 78%.

Global nickel production is about 2 million tons of nickel battery industry uses up to 40000 tons, about 2% of total output, according to estimates, in 2025, global nickel consumption will increase to 2.65 million tons, the battery industry with nickel 10%.

According to the U.S. geological survey released data show that the world has proven reserves of about 39.78 million tons of lithium resources, reserves of 5.4 million tons of lithium resources in China, about 13% of the world, mainly distributed in the Tibetan plateau, but China's current imports 70% of lithium.

Based on the current industry situation, Li Jian thinks, power battery recycling is very necessary." From the Angle of resources, on important materials in our country are imported, especially cobalt 95% rely on imports, is equivalent to no ownership in our country, not recycling our new energy will not bottom go to, the problem will be very serious."

Feng Chun sun said, for power battery recycling way is to "whose children who took", first is traceability of power battery solution; Secondly, power battery recycling does not make money, recycling profits may meet only cost a third or half, so countries should support for the recycling enterprise have the funds or other aspects, recycling companies won't be able to survive.

It is understood that in 2018, the ministry will publish relevant solve power battery recycling policy. According to "who, who is responsible for" principle, the original Wang Binggang, director of the China automotive technology research center, said: "I have been pushing some new energy automobile sales more cities to establish recycling industries, and establish a recycling industry when the local government will give certain preferential policies, such as land."

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