The global demand for ternary batteries has increased significantly.

Global power battery market demand

With the increase in vehicle service life requirements, the demand for high energy density ternary batteries has increased significantly. It is estimated that the number of new energy vehicles equipped with ternary batteries will reach 1.8 million in 2020, accounting for more than 90% of the total number of new energy vehicles. We estimate that in 2018, domestic new energy vehicles are expected to exceed the demand of 28GWh for ternary batteries, corresponding to the market size of over 39 billion. By 2020, the demand for ternary power batteries will increase to 76GWh, corresponding to a market size of over 80 billion, a CAGR of approximately 39% for 2018-2020, and a CAGR of approximately 27% for 2018-2020.

China Power Battery Shipment

With the start of electric vehicles in China in 2011, the power battery industry has entered the initial stage of development, with annual shipments below 1GWh and only maintaining a small increase. According to the Prospective Industry Research Institute's “Power Cell PACK Industry Development Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning Analysis” According to the report, the industry entered an explosive development period with the introduction of the subsidy policy in 2014. Power battery shipments climbed from 5.9GWh in 2014 to 17.0Gwh in 2015, a year-on-year increase of nearly 2 times. In 2016, China's power battery shipments reached 30.5GWh, an increase of 80% over the previous year. In general, as a key link in the new energy vehicle industry chain, the power battery industry will benefit from the growth in sales and penetration of new energy vehicles. In 2017, the cumulative shipment of power batteries was 39.2GWh, an increase of more than 30%. Combined with the production and sales of new energy vehicles, the power battery will continue to grow at a high rate from 2018 to 2020, with a CAGR of about 30%.

Since 2014, the power battery installation has entered an explosive growth period, and the recovery of power batteries has gradually been put on the agenda. General household passenger cars and electric bus batteries will be retired in about 5 years, and taxi and logistics vehicle power batteries will generally be retired in 2 years. Judging from this, starting from 2018, China will have a large number of power batteries into the end of life.

Passenger cars are the dominant market, and the trend of ternary lithium is obvious.

From January to October 2017, the total installed capacity of domestic power batteries was about 18.1GWh, of which the installed capacity of passenger car batteries reached 9.8GWH, accounting for 54% (30% for passenger cars and 16% for vehicles). In terms of battery type, the proportion of passenger car ternary lithium battery reached 70%, and the high school's 52% in 2016, the trend of power battery development toward ternary lithium is obvious.

In the field of ternary power battery, the competition pattern is relatively scattered; Ningde era market share is 23.0%, ranking first, compared to Birui power (10.1%), Funeng Technology (7.1%), BYD (5.3 %) is divided into 2/3/4 places, and CR5 is about 49.4%.

Power lithium battery industry development direction

Encourage the development of power batteries to high-energy density technology. The Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive Power Battery Industry, released in March 2017, clarifies that the goal of 2020 is to exceed 300Wh/kg of power battery cells. Strive to reach 260Wh / kg. The average specific energy level of China's current power battery system is about 115Wh/kg, which is far from the target value of 260Wh/kg. Therefore, constantly updating battery technology and improving battery energy density will be the core competitiveness of power battery enterprises.

The subsidy threshold for increasing battery energy density is in line with the policy to encourage the use of high energy density batteries in the general direction. Regardless of how future policies are developed, the continuous innovation of technology and the ability to control costs will be the core competitiveness of power battery companies.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.