In the last two years of the critical period, the old and new vehicles will attack and defend

The fission period of the once-in-a-lifetime automobile industry

In anxiety and excitement, the old and new car forces collide. The future car market cake may not be getting bigger and bigger. Once the shared car develops rapidly, the car market capacity may even become smaller, and the intensification of competition is hard to avoid. In order to compete for the future, the traditional car giants and the new forces of the car are beginning to compete in technology.

The two forces competed in the first round of the 2018 (fifteenth) Beijing International Automobile Exhibition (hereinafter referred to as "Beijing Auto Show"). In the new power of the car, Weilai, Weimar, Zhengdao, Ai Chi, the future and other enterprises collectively carry a variety of electric vehicles in Beijing Auto Show will enter the Chinese auto market, which is gradually slowing down. The car has eaten in the mouth.

When the "works" of the new forces of the car have entered the reality from the PPT, they have appeared at the Beijing Auto Show, like the fire of the stars, and they will burn the battle to the position of traditional car companies. In the fissured period of the once-in-a-century auto industry, and policies such as environmental protection, the auto industry is accelerating the transformation, and the electrification, intelligence, and interconnection are coming to the forefront, giving the rising stars a chance to rise in the car, and traditional car companies are beginning to feel pressure and waiting for it.

New forces storm: new energy is the window, and intelligence is the future

BYTON Concept, the first model of the company, ushered in the first show in Asia at this year's auto show. Byron Motors positioned the product as the next-generation smart terminal in the era of shared travel and autonomous driving. One of its core highlights is the new smart person. The car interaction system can use the facial recognition function to unlock the door. The car is equipped with a shared experience screen and a touch-type steering wheel with a length of 125 cm and a height of 25 cm, and supports interactive methods such as gesture recognition, voice recognition, touch control, and biometric recognition. In terms of design, Baiteng is equipped with a large shared full-screen design, hoping to bring a unique experience in terms of intelligence.

According to Dai Lei, president and co-founder of Baiteng, the products launched by traditional car companies are still based on the transformation of traditional platforms, and the products based on the new platform will be launched in 2020. "Our real competitor is the market of more than 20 million internal combustion engines. The strength and resources of traditional auto companies are strong. They are also accelerating their transformation. Entrepreneurs must run faster than others." Dai Lei told reporters.

“Foreign car companies are slower in the new energy layout. This is also left to the certain window period for car manufacturers. Product landing and product quality are very important for car manufacturers. Only when the products fall, the financing will come sooner.” Cun Wang, deputy director of the market investment department of SINOMACH, told reporters that some car manufacturers have already released the first car, which is a key time node. "The new entrant's model is that regardless of cost and manufacturing scale, it requires product and visibility, and it can be fired."

What is certain is that although each car manufacturer has different positioning and style of play, as with Baiteng, highlighting intelligence is the strategy of all car manufacturers.

"Intelligence sounds easy, but it is really difficult to achieve. It is very important to have real human-computer interaction. It is very important for users not to want to take out their mobile phones in the car." Xiaopeng Automobile Chairman He Xiaopeng said. Xiaopeng also released the first G3, the first publicly available product. It is the first Internet car to use a space cockpit. It is equipped with dual current camera, binocular side camera, four surround cameras, three millimeter wavespecial, and 12 Ultrasonic sensors and two in-cabin smart cameras, a total of 25 intelligent sensing devices are hidden in the flowing vehicle lines.

In Xiaopeng He's view, today is dominated by gasoline vehicles. New energy vehicles may rise rapidly tomorrow, but in the end, they must be AI cars. Combine software with the Chinese market to win. "Today's new energy vehicles are just a window for us to get in a little faster, but not the core."

In fact, the application of these intelligent technologies requires a large amount of capital invested by the car manufacturers. Due to the limitations of scale and capital, the car manufacturers often face losses. How to control the cost in the case of vigorous development is also a big problem. Although Tesla has a large market size, it has not yet been profitable; Weilai Automobile also predicts that the loss will reach 5.1 billion in 2018, and it will not start to profit until 2020.

Most automakers have chosen to work with autonomous parts suppliers to develop autonomous driving, which can reduce costs and reduce risk. For example, Baiteng has already entered into a strategic partnership with Aurora, the world's leading autonomous driving technology company. According to the previous plan, the first production car of Baiteng in 2019 will have the L3 level driving assistance function, and the cooperation will help the Bayer to become the first L4 self-driving car. At present, Xiaopeng Automobile has also adopted Bosch's camera to develop autonomous driving.

"We will have more budgets for research and development in terms of intelligence. We really need to find smart partners to find better partners. The price is definitely more expensive. We can try our best to control the cost while ensuring that the autopilot Internet continues to upgrade. A lot of costs can't be saved." Xiaopeng He told reporters.

In Xiaopeng He's view, although major auto companies are constantly promoting autonomous driving, most of the current domestic products are unable to upgrade their autopilot and Internet functions. "It can't get your data. There is no way to upgrade and adjust your car according to your situation. There is no hardware model or ECU system or software architecture for the car." Xiaopeng He said that safety performance, data and effects are all true. It is possible to get through what kind of scene, what kind of service to solve, and what kind of product to make.

"2020 is the first key point. The quality of the car, the operation and reputation, and the scale of sales, we all know." Xiaopeng He said that several companies will start delivery in a small scope this year. There are all kinds of difficulties, and it is also an opportunity for everyone to grow and iterate.

In this regard, ZMC Zhiling, director of automotive market research for LMC Automotive Asia Pacific, agreed. He said that the window period for the new forces of making cars is very short, that is, 2018 and 2019, up to 2020. If by 2020 these new local Chinese car manufacturers can't get a decent car, they will basically be eliminated. After 2020, with the accelerated launch of its products and the original brand influence, the advantages of the traditional international car companies are obvious. The new forces of the car do not have many technical advantages to rely on.

Electric car counterattack of traditional car companies

In a strict sense, the opponents of traditional car companies are not exactly the same as the new forces of car making. In the eyes of the industry, more competition comes from the fight in various market segments.

However, in just a few years, the imposing new forces of the car have torn open a new space in the already solidified automobile industry. It is not that traditional enterprises have not seen the development of electrification and intelligence, but such opportunities often open a window for the latecomers, who think about how to squeeze into the market before the window closes, and traditional car companies have more considerations. It comes from how to hold and develop your own territory.

Electrification is the key word brought by traditional car companies.

At this year's auto show, Honda first released the first pure electric vehicle of the concept brand of Guangqi Honda. Honda, the president of Honda Technology Industrial Co., Ltd., said that this was jointly developed by Honda China Research Institute and Guangqi Honda Research Institute. Listed during the year, Dongfeng Honda, another joint venture of Honda, will launch its first pure electric vehicle in 2019.

"Honda has advantages in performance and design of fuel vehicles. In the future, it will continue to maintain its original advantages and further expand the pace of electrification. In 2030, Honda's electric vehicles will account for more than 65% of its global sales. By 2025, Honda will In China, more than 20 models of electric vehicles will be launched, and the proportion of electric vehicles will reach 40%.” Ba Xiang Long Hong told the First Financial Reporter.

Coincidentally, PSA China President Kailin Gao also told the First Financial Reporter at the auto show that the PSA Group has realized that the current Chinese auto market, including EVs, is highly competitive. PSA needs to learn from past experience and increase its response to the market.

Toyota and its joint ventures, FAW Toyota and GAC Toyota, exhibited 26 models at the Beijing Auto Show and announced that they will launch 10 electric models in 2020. Toyota Motor (China) Investment Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Toyota China") Chairman and General Manager Xiaolin Yihong said that in addition to the introduction of Corolla and Ralink plug-in hybrids in 2019, SUV pure electric will be introduced in the future, consider The pure electric version was launched on the two SUV models of Takizawa and C-HR.

At the auto show, Toyota's GAC Toyota exhibited the first electric car that was introduced to China's GAC and will be produced and sold during the year. Changzheng Dong, executive vice president of Toyota China, said on the 25th that he was interviewed by the First Financial Reporter. He said that he is more than pure Toyota in pure electric technology. This is a good thing and will help the development of joint ventures. With the help of Chinese technology, Toyota can accelerate the pace of electrification.

Speeding up the pace – Toyota, which has been steadily moving forward, began to emphasize “speed” at this auto show.

Kobayashi explained the importance of "speed". "Now, the automotive industry environment, especially the Chinese automotive industry is undergoing a change of speed. It can be said that the automotive industry has entered a period of change in the past 100 years, the environment is rapidly changing; the survival of the fittest between enterprises is even more intense, the brand The elimination of acceleration; the double-point policy has stimulated the transformation to new energy vehicles, and has surpassed other countries in the world to lead development in the aspects of autonomous driving and mobile interconnection.” Xiaolin Yihong believes that these rapid changes are a good opportunity to change itself. Toyota China looks forward to further accelerating the development of China's business.

In 2017, Toyota's global electric vehicle sales reached a record high of 1.52 million units. At present, Toyota is pushing the popularity of electric vehicles to the goal of “more than 5.5 million electric vehicles sold in 2030”.

In addition, Toyota is accelerating technology development in the field of automatic driving frontier technology research and development. Recently, Toyota and its parts suppliers Aisin Seiki Co., Ltd. and Denso Co., Ltd. signed a memorandum of technical development in the frontier technology research and development fields such as autonomous driving technology. The three companies plan to establish a new TRI-AD in Tokyo last month. The company invested more than 300 billion yen.

Although it will be difficult for a multi-national car company to invest in new technologies like a multinational car company, the domestic traditional automobile group has also accelerated its progress toward electrification, intelligence and interconnection. In the field of new energy vehicles, independent auto companies are leading the multinational auto companies in terms of sales volume, supported by domestic subsidies and other policies.

Xiaoqiu Wang, general manager of SAIC passenger car, recently said that all the cars who can survive the 2020 are heroes, and they will be eliminated if they fail.

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