Briefly describe the current situation and development trend of China's power battery industry

Analysis of the Development of Power Battery Industry

In 2017, a total of 2,949 models were selected in the first 10 batches of catalogs issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, of which 346 were passenger cars, 1698 were passenger cars, and 905 were vehicles.

In the first 10 batches of the 2016 and 2017 catalogs, the number of pure electric passenger vehicles was 166 and 312, respectively, an increase of 51 % and 88 %, respectively. The total number of electric vehicles and vehicles in the first 10 batches of 2017 increased by 113 % from 2016; The growth rate of pure electric buses is smaller. According to the production data, the output of pure electric passenger vehicles, pure electric passenger vehicles and pure electric and vehicle vehicles from January to October 2017 was 296,000, 34,000 and 58,000, respectively. The output of pure electric passenger vehicles is higher than that of pure electric passenger vehicles and pure electric and vehicle vehicles. It is the main force for the development of new energy vehicles in the future. Still, on average in the industry, each new passenger car, passenger car, and passenger car list will correspond to the increase in production of 949 passenger cars, 28 passenger cars, and 64 passenger cars. Therefore, if battery companies give passenger vehicles more cars, future product sales and growth will be higher, and binding large passenger car companies is the key to achieving a competitive advantage in the future.

A total of 146 different battery suppliers in the first 10 batches of 2017 matched 2,949 models, of which the top ten battery manufacturers matched 1860 models, accounting for 68 % of the total, and the industry was highly concentrated. The leading CATL has a total of 585 models, ranking first; In the first, third, and fourth places, Kennedy Warne, Guild and Guoxian Gaoke separated, each supporting 192, 186, and 178 models. In terms of passenger vehicles, the top three CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Gaoke have matched 49 models, 29 models and 24 models, respectively. The number of passenger car supporting models will provide protection for the company's power battery sales.

In terms of specific customers, the company's passenger vehicles are mainly Anhui Jianghuai(8), Beiqi New Energy(4), Geely Automobile(4), Changhe(3) and Chirui Automobile(2) and other 7 enterprises. Among them, the representative models include Beiqi EC180, Beiqi C10, Jianghuai IEV6S/E, Jianghuai IEV7, Jilidihao EQ electric vehicle and Chen Yichang EV, etc., which accounted for 4 of the top 6 pure electric passenger car sales in October 2017.

In terms of buses, The company's main supporting customers are Zhongtong Bus(20 models), Anhui Ankai(11 models), Nanjing Bus(9 models), Nanjing Jinlong(7 models), Lujianzhou(7 models), Beiqi Futian(5 models), Chengdu Dayun(5 models), Guangtong Bus( 5), Xiamen Jinlong(5), Shanghai Jialong(4), China Automobile Hongjin(4), Beiqi(3), Asian Star Bus(3), SAIC Group(3), Yutong Bus(3) and Hunan Zhongche(3), etc.. 24 companies, covering 7 of the top 10 new energy passenger car sales from January to October 2017.

Analysis of the Capacity of Power Battery Industry

In the past two years, power battery companies have rapidly expanded their production capacity. In terms of policy, the National Action Plan for the Development of the Automobile Power Battery Industry (2017 .3) explicitly requires that by 2020, the total capacity of the power battery industry will exceed 100 billion watt-hours, forming a leading enterprise with a production and sales scale of 40 billion watt-hours or more and having international competitiveness. In 2016, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were about 520,000 vehicles, an increase of about 52 % year-on-year, and the corresponding demand for power batteries was approximately 28.3 GWh; In 2017, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are estimated to reach more than 700,000 vehicles(a year-on-year increase of more than 35 %), and the total demand for power batteries is expected to reach 34.0 GWh(a year-on-year increase of about 20 %); For example, according to the national planning target of 2 million new energy vehicles in 2020, it is estimated that the total demand for the power battery market in 2020 will be 124.3 GWh, equivalent to 4.4 times that of 2016. Assuming that the average value of 1.0 yuan/Wh is calculated, the domestic car power lithium battery market in 2020 will be about 124.3 billion yuan, which is about 2.1 times that of 2016.

1) Passenger cars are the dominant market, and the trend of lithium in three yuan is obvious

The total installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to October 2017 was about 18.1 GWh, of which the installed capacity of passenger car batteries reached 9.8 GWH, accounting for 54 % (passenger cars accounted for 30 % and vehicles accounted for 16 %). Still, in terms of battery type, the proportion of passenger car three-yuan lithium batteries has reached about 70 %, which is higher than 52 % in 2016. The trend of power cells developing in the direction of three-way lithium is obvious.

At present, there are more than 200 domestic power battery companies, and it is expected that the total planned production capacity will exceed 200 GWh by the end of the year. According to the expansion plans of the top 14 battery manufacturers, their total production capacity is about 58GWh in 2016, and they are expected to increase to 122GWh in 2017. By 2020, they will rapidly expand to 271GWh, with an annual compound growth rate of 47 %. After the rapid expansion of production capacity, the industry presents the status quo of low-end excess production capacity and high-end production capacity. The future competition will further intensify, and it is inevitable that the industry will reshuffle. By 2020, the domestic power battery industry will have eliminated more than 90 %, that is, more than 200 companies are still eliminated to about 20, and the market share of the top 5 companies will further increase to more than 75 %.

2) The high market concentration of power lithium batteries. However, the concentration of the power lithium battery industry has been high, with the top 10 companies in 2016 accounting for about 78 % of the shipments market, and about 75 % in January-October 2017(it is expected to be higher than this figure throughout the year). In the past two years, in the top three companies, the competition pattern has taken place. BYD's market share has been quickly surpassed by CATL because it is mainly internal support, and Wotema has also squeezed out of the top three in the industry. The installed capacity of CATL in the first month of this year was about 5.5 GWh, and the market share was about 30 %. The advantages were more obvious; Both BYD and Guoxuan are in the first camp. Guoxuan's costs and technology are more advantageous. In the future, the rankings will not be further increased in the industry's big shuffle, becoming one of the power lithium battery leaders second only to CATL.

Development Direction of lithium battery Industry

Encourage the development of power cells in the direction of high-energy density technologies: The Action Plan for the Development of the Automobile Power Battery Industry released in March 2017 has set a target of more than 300 Wh/kg of power cell monomer energy by 2020, and a system of energy. Strive to reach 260W/kg. The current power battery system in China is about 115 Wh / kg in energy average, and the target value of no 260 Wh / kg is quite different. Therefore, constantly updating battery technology and increasing battery energy density will be the core competitiveness of power battery companies.

From the perspective of the subsidy policy, the "Circular on the Adjustment of the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" issued at the end of 2016 clarified the energy density of pure electric passenger vehicle batteries & GT; 120 Wh / kg, pure electric passenger car battery energy density & GT; At 115 Wh / kg, subsidies are 1.1 and 1.2 times, respectively. From the perspective of the double-integral policy, higher energy density means that fewer batteries can still be used to reduce the quality of the vehicle, lower 100-kilometer power consumption can be achieved, and there is a greater likelihood that the conditions stipulated by the policy will be met. Get 1.2 points.

There is still about 38 % reduction in demand from the 2020 target cost: The policy clearly requires that the battery system be reduced to less than 1.0 yuan/Wh by 2020 and that it need to be reduced by about 38 % at the current level of about 1.6 yuan/Wh. There is still a large cost pressure for the two production enterprises.

The subsidy adjustment community in 2018 will further enhance the energy density and cost requirements of the power battery system. Recently, news of the adjustment of subsidies in 2018 by the industry's internal customs has been reported again. Before the launch of the new energy vehicle policy, there will be relevant websites. Experience disclosed in advance. This online subsidy adjustment is more likely.

Raising the subsidy threshold for battery energy density is consistent with the policy's general direction of encouraging the use of high-energy density batteries. Regardless of how future policies are developed, the continuous innovation of technology and the ability to control costs will be the core competitiveness of power battery companies.

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