Analysis on the Development of Domestic New Energy Vehicle and Power Battery Market

Recently, Wuhui, general manager of the New Energy Automobile Industry Research Center of the Saidi Electronic Information Industry Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, published a speech entitled "The Development Trend and Investment Analysis of China's New Energy Automobile Market". The following is a speech report:

Good afternoon, everyone. Today is a great opportunity to share with you the results of the Saidi Institute's research on the whole market for new energy vehicles. Many speakers this morning have talked about our future judgment on China's new energy car market. The total sales volume of electric vehicles in October this year is 5.40 million, and a breakthrough of 300,000 vehicles this year is certain to be achieved. What will happen to the whole electric car market in the future? Everyone has a different opinion. Before we study this problem, let's take a look at the statistics we found in the United States. From January to September, the entire U.S. EV and PHEV, referring to the passenger car sector, are selling at the same level as last year. In other words, in the case of China's explosive growth, the United States is a steady growth rate. It can also be seen that the Chinese market is being vigorously promoted by the Chinese government's policies.

Looking at the Chinese market, the figure was just 50,000 vehicles yesterday. If we forecast the future, there will be no problem in breaking through 300,000 vehicles in 2015. Judging from this structure, it can be seen that about 60,000 of these 300,000 vehicles are passenger cars, which is why all our battery companies feel that the power battery capacity is in short supply this year. In fact, the main reason is the rapid outbreak of the entire passenger car market. This has led to a very rapid increase in the demand for batteries. The real passenger car, although the volume of growth is fast, it does not need our batteries as much as buses.

When we talk about total battery use, more than 60 % of the power batteries are used in commercial vehicles, mainly passenger cars. The demand for real passenger vehicles for batteries is about 30 %. This is also the entire battery company this year. In particular, companies focused on power batteries clearly feel that the downstream bus market has driven them. But next year's forecast, we can see later, the entire new energy vehicle, because we know that the sales of traditional passenger cars are 300,000 a year, and 60,000 new energy vehicles account for 30 % of the total penetration of traditional passenger cars. And considering two factors, this year is the last year of the 12th five-year period. Including the previous year in 2013, the local governments reported to the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology that the plan is to complete this year as much as possible. So there are cases where all orders are advanced. So in general, this year's passenger car volume is likely to be able to maintain 60,000 vehicles in the case of this more optimistic growth rate next year, which may have a certain degree of decline.

On the other hand, we are still optimistic about passenger vehicles. Next year, the entire market for electric vehicles in China should be able to maintain a growth rate of more than 50 %, or 6.70 %, but the growth rate has doubled compared with this year.

This is the number of domestic power cell shipments, which, in the third quarter, far exceeded the second quarter. From the point of view of major companies, such as BYD, Lishen, etc., these are some of the companies that we focus on monitoring. There are other companies that are also very large shipments, but due to the reasons for our data acquisition, there are no statistics within the scope. In general, we count these companies that can represent the development level of the entire power battery industry in China.

We made an external forecast that the entire new energy vehicle will drive batteries in the future. In 2015, the power battery content was about 15 GWh, which increased by about three times. There should be little doubt that growth will slow in 2016, 2017 and 2018. But judging from the development of the entire battery system, the entire car battery in the future must be headed for the most basic two aspects. The first is a higher energy density, and the second is a lower cost. How do you choose between these two aspects? We can also see that in terms of materials, the entire ternary, including some Gaodianya, high-energy density materials, will surely become the development direction of the entire automotive battery field. It is predicted that by 2018, shipments of ternary material batteries in China should be able to exceed lithium iron phosphate.

In addition, the cost of batteries must be reduced by technological innovation, but in the short term, it must take a standardized route to reduce battery costs. We can see that the entire battery currently used in Chinese cars, including cylinders, also has a square, basically three-point feeling. But why have cylindrical batteries been heavily used in passenger cars since Tesla was launched? The main reason is that it is a standardized product that can reduce its costs through large-scale production.

Against this background, we can see that this year is really very big investment for power battery companies. You can see through the online news area search for investment information that each company is now a power battery company to do 3C companies. Including other companies that do not make batteries, they have begun to enter the power battery industry and launched large-scale investments. We did an incomplete statistic, and it should take a year or two to start investing now, so by the end of 2016 or 2017, the entire domestic power cell will have about 59 GWh of new investment capacity. In fact, we also know that Chinese companies often publish investment plans first, but in fact, there may not be so much investment, and the entire investment amount is also more than 30 billion yuan. So a big investment is bound to create a very large capacity.

In this case, our entire power cell production capacity will surely usher in an era of the concentrated explosion. In general, we have simply counted the production capacity of these as of 2015. The overall capacity can be imagined to be very large. So their production capacity plan by 2020, and here's what we 've been talking to companies about, is nearly 150 GWh of power battery capacity by 2020. There may actually be some water crowding out by then, but in general, the power cell industry must face one. I think it may be very competitive, that is, the price may be lower. Such an era of shuffling.

Under such circumstances, it may lead to the integration of industries in the entire industry, that is, mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, we can see that a large amount of capital has entered the new energy automobile industry chain through acquisition. We have made a statistic. In 2014, the amount of related industry chain mergers and acquisitions has reached more than 20 billion, from January to September 2015, involving the amount of M&A to the new energy automobile industry chain is more than 12 billion. To make a prediction, in fact, at the beginning of the year, we predicted that the number of mergers and acquisitions would reach 50 billion, which may not be so much. From the M&A link, we can see that a large amount of capital is actually entering the whole battery and materials. This is why we say that the development of the whole new energy vehicle focuses on the power battery. This is also a way to look at the capital layout. To this point.

In the entire new energy automotive industry chain from 2013 to 2015, especially since the beginning of 2015, some professional battery systems have gradually begun to grow. Here, you can see that companies such as Lishen and Wanxiang have chosen to cooperate with battery packaging companies. Instead of directly with the vehicle factory. Especially like a third-party battery pack company, it can be called a system integration company. It began to play a key role in the entire industry, and it grew very quickly. They cooperated with downstream vehicle factories to provide integrated business.

In passenger cars, this phenomenon is less, but there are also companies. Here we have combed the passenger Depot or passenger car factory's corresponding battery pack company. You can see that for the moment, about 80 % of the entire battery pack is made by the electric core enterprise itself, but there are also third-party companies. Judging from this industrial chain, there are three kinds of situations in the company that we make battery systems. The first type of electric core factory does it itself. This ratio is about 60 %. The other is to do the battery pack work by the vehicle factory itself, accounting for about 20 %. The third, professional battery pack companies are divided into three types. The first one has a battery enterprise or a vehicle enterprise background. The second is the vehicle factory site and the third is a professional third party of the company. In general, in the future, there may be a company that does system integration, or battery-pack, throughout the new energy automotive industry chain. As it grows and grows, it either grows larger and bigger by itself as the industry matures. Have some say. The vehicle factory may also want to control this piece, in the future of the entire industrial chain, there will be such a link? I think we need to think about it, but I personally am very optimistic about the company that does system integration in the short term.

On the whole, I think this year should be the best time for our battery factory, or for our upstream material factory, to judge the future of the whole new-energy car market, and by the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Must be an era of integration.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.