Profits have shrunk, can all-solid lithium batteries break the "naked war" situation in battery companies?

Recently, Battery China Network learned from the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission that the Development and Reform Commission has drawn up a timetable for the opening of automobile stocks. In 2018, it will cancel the foreign capital stock ratio restrictions for new energy vehicles, and domestic new energy car companies will face more direct competition with foreign companies. This will also cause great strategic pressure on the power battery companies that are closely related to new energy vehicles. It is also understood that by 2020, our new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be fully withdrawn. How to compete with international giants under the condition of "no protection" and no subsidy will be a major challenge for domestic power battery companies.

Profits in industry leaders have shrunk

According to the data, in 2017, due to the rapid increase in power battery production capacity and the retreat of new energy vehicle subsidies, the price of the power battery system in the Ningde era was significantly reduced, resulting in a decrease in the company's gross profit rate from 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 1.41 yuan in 2017. / Wh, The cumulative decrease was 38,26. In terms of net profits after deduction, the growth rate was from 2015 to 2016, which was 2.96 billion yuan in 2016, but it fell to 2.47 billion yuan in 2017, a year-on-year decline of about 16 billion yuan.

According to the 2017 annual performance report released by BYD, affected by changes in the new energy subsidy policy, BYD's performance fell 19.5 % year-on-year, and the gross profit margin was 3.93 % lower than in 2016. The negative impact of the receding of new energy vehicle subsidies on BYD's earnings was even more obvious in the first three months of 2018. According to statistical data, the net profit range was only 0.05 billion yuan to 150 million yuan, and it is estimated that the net profit will drop sharply year-on-year. 75.2 <UNK> to 91.8 <UNK>.

Battery China Network learned that in addition to the Ningde era, BYD and other power battery industry leaders experienced a significant decline in performance and profits. A number of industrial chain companies such as Xiongyu shares, polyfluorosis, Xingyuan materials, Anda technology, Tianci materials, GuoxingGaoke, and Pikang SHARES also experienced a slowdown in performance growth and a decline in net profit. It can be seen that the overall benefit of the power battery industry is not optimistic, 2018 will also be a fierce competition, extremely difficult year of change.

The cost of manufacturing ternary batteries has skyrocketed

At present, batteries equipped with new energy passenger vehicles above A0 are mainly ternary batteries, IE lithium batteries with lithium nickel-cobalt manganese acid or lithium nickel-cobalt aluminate as a positive material, in which cobalt metal plays an important role as a key material.. Cobalt is a very scarce resource in our country, and the proven reserves of cobalt in our country account for only a little more than 1 percent of the global total, and most of them rely on imports.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo has nearly 70 cobalt mines worldwide. According to foreign media reports, in January 2018, the Congolese government recently revised the mining tax law and will impose a double tax on cobalt mines. The patent tax on basic metals will be increased from 2 to 3.5. And with global power battery companies aiming at ternary materials, cobalt prices continued to rise, causing the cost of ternary batteries to rise sharply. According to statistics, the cobalt price will exceed 800,000 yuan per ton in 2018.

Power cell energy density technology needs to break through

As we all know, the higher the energy density of the power cell, the longer the mileage of the car, of course; The high energy density of the power cell also shows a higher level of technology. Wan Gang, former minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, pointed out that it is necessary to strive to double the energy density of the power battery unit and reduce the battery cost by half, so that the unit battery energy reaches more than 300 W/kg, and the cost falls below one yuan / Wh.

According to China's "Road Map for Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Technology", it is clearly required that by 2020, China's power batteries must achieve a single energy density of 300 W/kg, and the system energy density will reach 260 W/kg; In 2025, the single energy density reaches 400 Wh/kg, and the system energy density reaches 350 Wh/kg; By 2030, the single energy density will reach 500 W/kg. It shows that the breakthrough of power battery technology has a long way to go.

The breakthrough of technology for all-solid lithium batteries

From the perspective of technology development potential, ternary lithium-powered batteries have great difficulties in the improvement of energy density. Industry authorities believe that in theory, it is feasible to increase the energy density of all-solid lithium-powered batteries. Experts said that in addition to the advantages of traditional lithium batteries, all-solid lithium batteries have great improvements in safety and energy density, and their energy density can reach 300 to 400 Wh / kg.

In addition to the advantages of high safety and high energy density, all-solid lithium batteries also have characteristics that other traditional batteries do not have. According to reports, thin-film all-solid lithium metal batteries can reach 45,000 cycles. Its maximum operating temperature is expected to reach 300 °C or even higher. Its electrochemical window is expected to reach 5V. It also has the advantages of flexibility and ease of recovery.

"To further increase energy density, we need to consider all-solid lithium batteries now," said industry experts. The long-term development of the electric vehicle industry requires technological reserves, all-solid lithium batteries are expected to become the dominant technology route for the next generation of automotive power batteries. Battery China Network has learned that BYD, Zhongtian Technology, and many other companies have already launched a layout in the all-solid lithium battery field.

Technology leadership is the fundamental guarantee that enterprises can stand on the market. In the face of the new situation of new energy subsidies receding, rising battery cost materials, and "naked war" with foreign companies, whether it is possible to strengthen innovation and continuously break through the existing technology bottlenecks will be the urgent task for domestic power battery companies to solve. Whether all-solid lithium batteries will bring a new generation of power battery technology revolution and whether power battery enterprises can achieve technological leapfrogging development, we wait and see.

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