Parse the value of 7 concept stocks for lithium batteries in 2018

Shanshan co., LTD. : in 2017, the global leader of lithium battery materials is taking shape

Research institution: tianfeng securities co., LTD. Researcher: Yang zao date: 2018-01-24

In 2017, the company's pre-deduction non-performance increased by 62% to 82%

Shanshan shares issued a pre-increase in the performance of the announcement, it is expected that the company 2017 year attributable to the listed company shareholders net profit compared with the same period of the previous year increased by 5. 2 billion yuan -6. 2 billion yuan, which is 8. 5 billion yuan -9 billion yuan. 5 billion yuan, an increase of 157. 5% - 187. 79%. After deducting non-recurring gains and losses, the performance will increase by 1. 6 billion yuan minus 2. 1 billion yuan, or 4 percent of the net profit after deducting non-profits in 2017. 1.6 billion yuan minus 4. 6.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2 percent. 39% - 81. 89%. The advance performance is mainly due to the company's positive materials business growth, and the sale of bank of ningbo stock 4. 6.6 billion yuan (including tax) due to investment gains.

The company's net profit for the fourth quarter was 0. 5.2 billion yuan minus 1. 5.2 billion yuan, down 60% to 18% month-on-month and down 16% to 145% year-over-year. Net interest after deducting non-profits is 0. 4.2 billion yuan minus 0. 9.2 billion yuan, down 23-65% month-on-month and up 4100-9100% year-on-year.

The production capacity expands steadily, the solid lithium battery material leading position

Shanshan announced on January 16 that it will invest 5 billion yuan to expand the capacity of 100,000 tons of high-energy density lithium anode materials, which corresponds to the previously planned 100,000 tons of anode materials project. By the end of 2018, the company plans to complete the first phase of phase I positive production capacity of 10,000 tons/year, with fixed asset investment of about 5 million tons. RMB 8.1 billion; It is expected to complete the first phase of the project before the end of 2020, with a total new capacity of 20,000 tons per year; The investment of surplus production capacity will be completed in stages before the end of 2025. By the end of 2016, the production capacity of positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte of shanshan was 3. 30,000 tons, 20,000 tons. 80,000 tons and 10,000 tons. 50000 tons. In 2017, the company added 10,000 tons of negative electrode capacity through acquisition, and there are currently 3 tons of projects under construction. 50,000 tons of negative capacity. It is estimated that by the end of 2018, the capacity of both positive and negative poles of shanshan will exceed 50,000 tons.

Sell shares of bank of ningbo, promote the listing of garment business, and focus on the development of battery materials

In 2017, the company sold about 28.69 million of its shares in bank of ningbo, earning about 4 percent on the investment. 6.6 billion yuan (tax included), which provides a cash flow guarantee for the company's expansion of battery material production capacity. At present, the company also holds shares of luoyang molybdenum industry, bank of ningbo and bank of chouzhou, with a total market value of about 8 billion yuan. The subsequent company may continue to sell shares to supplement cash flow and develop the main business of battery materials.

The high-speed growth trend of lithium electric materials has not decreased, the company will benefit from the long-term industrial dividends

China produced 44 power batteries in 2017, according to data from the high technology lithium battery industry. As a representative enterprise of middle reaches materials, shanshan also benefited from the increase in volume in 2017.

Positive electrode materials: according to the starting point research and statistics, the total output of positive electrode materials in China in 2017 was 210,000 tons, an increase of 31 tons. 25%; Total output of three positive poles is 8. 60,000 tons, up 58%; lithium cobalt oxide production increased 29 percent, significantly higher than market expectations. Strategic cooperation with luoyang molybdenum industry, superposition as the global leader of positive materials bargaining power, shanshan by raw material prices rise relatively small impact.

Negative electrode materials: the supply-side reform has led to a sharp increase in the price of negative electrode raw materials such as coke. Previously, negative electrode materials with stable profitability were also affected to some extent in 2017. But in terms of output, according to China's battery statistics, the country's production capacity of cathode materials in 2017 exceeded 350,000 tons, with a total output of about 1.8 million tons. 50,000 tons, up 51 percent year-on-year.

Electrolyte: compared with other battery materials, electrolyte 2017 was relatively low. Except that the selling price dropped from about 80,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of 2017 to less than 50,000 yuan/ton at the end of 2017, the overall output growth rate was also far lower than other links. According to the starting point research statistics, domestic annual electrolyte production 10. 20,000 tons, up 13. 3%; Among them, the output ratio of dynamic electrolyte is 56. 8%, about 5. 80,000 tons, up 16 percent year-on-year.

Earnings forecasts and investment ratings

We predict that power battery demand will reach 50GWh in 2018 and exceed 100GWh in 2020, and the lithium battery material industry will maintain a rapid growth trend. And with the strengthening of the competitiveness of domestic manufacturers, the future is expected to appear a few world-class lithium electric material leader. Shanshan co., ltd. has a complete mid-stream industrial chain, abundant capital, positive and clear production capacity layout, and we believe that the company is currently the most promising company to become the global leader in lithium electric materials. We adjusted the model according to the pre-added earnings announcement, and it is estimated that the EPS from 2017 to 2019 will be 0. 83, 0. 95 and 1. 18 yuan, corresponding to PE of 22. 1, 19. 3 and 15. 5 times, maintain "buy" rating, maintain price target of 29. 5 yuan.

Risk tip: the industry growth is not as expected, the midstream excess capacity; Risks arising from changes in subsidy policies; New technologies such as solid-state batteries are disrupting the existing power battery materials industry.

Comments on e-way lithium energy event: proposed acquisition of a consumer battery company, with obvious synergies with the existing business

Research institution: Sealand Securities Co., Ltd. Researcher: tan qian date: 2018-01-05

On December 29, 2017, the company announced that the company signed with TCL group, tyco can "about huizhou gold battery co., LTD., the equity transfer agreement, for gold at the TCL group, tyco can complete the capital increase, the company and will add endowment money used to pay off all the TCL group, tyco instant creditors after long-term borrowing, the company in 73.59 million yuan to buy gold to a 100% stake in the company.

The proposed acquisition of jinneng company layout of consumer batteries for many years, and the company's existing business synergies. Jinneng company is one of the earliest professional companies engaged in the research and development, manufacturing and sales of polymer lithium ion cells in China. In the field of consumer electronics has years of development precipitation, outstanding research and development capabilities, a good customer base. According to the company's official website, jinneng's products mainly cover mobile phone, bluetooth, MP3 / MP4, PDA, digital camera, mobile DVD, mobile power supply, tablet computer, power battery and so on. The loss of jinneng from January to October 2017 was 22.71 million yuan, mainly due to TCL's non-core business, insufficient orders and high operating costs. TCL group is pushing forward the divestment of non-core business.

Since 2010, e-way lithium energy has started to lay out the business of lithium ion battery, and has a prominent advantage in the electronic atomizer and smart wearable market. In 2017, the company's large customer orders increased, and the current production and delivery capacity has formed the bottleneck of business development. After the acquisition, the company's production capacity and delivery capacity will be expanded, and strong synergies will be generated in the research and development and supply chain, which will reduce the operating costs of the company and jinneng company as a whole, and the company's advantages in the field of consumer lithium electronic batteries will be further improved. The company's power battery capacity construction and customer development steadily. At present, the company has formed the capacity of 7GWh, including 3 in jingmen and huizhou. 5GWh ternary cylindrical capacity (2. The 5Gwh is compatible with 21700&18650), the 2 in jingmen. The production capacity of 5GWh square lithium iron phosphate and 1GWh soft-pack laminated ternary battery put into production at the end of August are expected to reach 9GWh in early 2018. In terms of customer development, the company has successfully entered the supply chain system of domestic leading bus enterprise yutong bus on the basis of adhering to nanjing jinlong bus, zhongtong bus, land ark, chengdu yajun and other large bus and logistics car customers. With soft-pack battery capacity climbing, the company is expected to passenger car customers will also make a breakthrough. The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2018 has not been implemented yet. From the perspective of industrial development, high-energy density batteries will be encouraged. The company's power battery energy density in the industry in a leading position, in the process of industry reshuffle, the company's competitiveness will be further reflected.

Traditional lithium battery business to lay a solid performance foundation. The company is the leading lithium battery industry, in the first half of 2017, the company's lithium battery business revenue increased 18. 60%, in the background of the rise in the price of raw material lithium, the company's lithium battery business gross margin increased 0. Eight percentage points to 39. 18%, it can be seen that the company lithium battery business profitability, cost control ability is outstanding. The performance growth of lithium battery mainly comes from the industry of Shared bicycle, GPS positioning and tracking, e-call and hydrothermal meter, etc. From the regional analysis, the performance growth mainly comes from the overseas market. In the hydrothermal meter market company won the internationally renowned table of large customer orders. In terms of smart security, most countries and regions in Europe and the americas have legislated to force smoke alarms to use long-lived lithium batteries, which has brought the company opportunities for business growth. In terms of the electronic atomizer business, the company transferred part of its equity to the management of McVay. Although there was no control right, the management team of McVay had higher autonomy and better motivation.

Profit forecast and investment rating: the power battery industry will face a reshuffle this year, but it is expected that there is still a large market demand for high-quality batteries, the company has been recognized by the market with high-quality products. Although the industry is a long-term trend of price reduction, but the company's strong cost control ability allows the company to maintain high profit margins. Based on the principle of prudence, we do not consider the impact of acquisition of jinneng company on the performance for the time being. We expect the EPS of 2017-2019 to be 0 respectively. 57 dollars, 0. 64 yuan, 0. 81 yuan, corresponding to PE 35 times, 31 times, 24 times, maintain the "overweight" rating.

Risk tip: the development of new energy vehicles is not as expected; Competition in the power battery industry intensifies; Lithium battery business development is not up to expectations, the acquisition can not be completed smoothly risk.

Guoxuan high-tech: long-term order pricing, employee ownership centering

Research institution: ping an securities co., LTD. Researcher: zhu dong date: 2018-02-08

The company took the lead in upgrading the products and obtained 40,000 orders, which directly benefited the order certainty: 7 supporting products of the company were selected into the first recommended catalogue in 18 years, and the energy density of lithium iron phosphate battery system reached 140wh/kg, maintaining the industry-leading level. At present, the company has confirmed orders of more than 40,000 sets with dayun, baic and jianghuai, and will take the lead in benefiting from the order certainty when the post-holiday industrial upturn. Large shipment orders showed that the company's product prices fell by about 10 percent, in line with the overall decline.

In the year of strategic transformation of the company, employee stock ownership increases confidence: in the year of 18, the industry was reshuffling under the urging of continuous tight capital chain and declining average gross profit rate; Also is the company customer center of gravity to passenger, product center of gravity to three yuan, cost center of gravity to the upstream results show the annual. At this time, the company will release the employee stock ownership plan, which will enhance the subjective initiative of employees. The company controller increased his stake in the company to show his confidence in the company's growth.

Investment suggestion: the power battery industry has entered the deep reshuffle period in the past 18 years. Due to the long period of issuing state subsidy funds, the capital chain of the industry is tight. The price of power battery drops rapidly, and the average gross profit margin of the industry declines. Power battery enterprises without quality financing capacity will be cleared. The company has issued green bonds, rights issues and other financing methods to reserve funds of 4.6 billion yuan to get through the stage of large capital expenditure. The company has increased the proportion of raw materials produced by itself in the past 18 years. Locking lithium and cobalt resources and prices will improve the company's product cost control. In view of the completion of the company's rights offering financing and the improvement of the company's product technology and order acquisition ability, we adjusted the company's profit forecast to be 0 per share in 17/18/19. 94/1. 14/1. 43 yuan (previous value 1). 21/1. 43/1. 72 yuan), maintain the "highly recommended" rating.

Risk reminder: if the national subsidy policy of 2018 is issued later than expected, and the adjustment range of subsidy amount and technical parameters exceeds the expectation, it will affect the rhythm of the production and sales volume of the industrial chain. If the production schedule of the company's cathode material/diaphragm supplier is not as expected, it will affect the company's product cost; If the company's order execution schedule is not as expected, it will affect the company's capacity utilization.

Tuobang co., LTD. : won the bid for centralized battery procurement of China mobile, and successfully adjusted the new energy strategy

Research institution: bank of China international securities co., LTD. Researcher: wu youwen, wu tong date: 2018-01-17

The company announced on January 15 that it won the bid for the 2017-2018 lithium iron phosphate battery product 2 for tower base stations other than towers. 400 million an hour scale of collective production, is expected to win the bid share of 23. 91%, winning amount 2. 100 million yuan. We believe that the company won the bid of China mobile project on the one hand to verify the success of new energy business transformation energy storage and small power battery, on the other hand, will help the company to open the operator market, lay the foundation for the later layout of 5G base station backup power supply. Maintain buy rating, price target 16. 14 yuan.

Support the key points of the rating lithium battery strategic transformation won the initial battle, winning the bid to open the space for growth in the mobile gathering. The company announced a 23. The highest share of 91% won the bid: China mobile 2017-2018 lithium iron phosphate battery products for towers and other base stations, winning the bid of 2. 100 million yuan. We expect that most of the company's orders will be completed in 2018, which will have a positive impact on the company's performance. The company expands the field of communication base station products, laying a foundation for the company to participate in 5G base station power products in the future. At the same time, the successful bid also verified the correctness of the strategic transformation of the company's lithium battery production line from power battery to energy storage battery, and will continue to optimize the company's lithium battery business supply chain, so as to promote the company to make full use of the existing lithium battery capacity.

Intelligent iot trend, the core load intelligent controller will continue to grow at a high speed. The company's downstream innovative intelligent living equipment such as dishwasher, sweeping robot, intelligent vacuum cleaner and other new categories of innovation launched, will promote the next 3-5 years of continuous growth in innovation demand. Overseas orders continued to transfer to China, the company set up factories in India to expand more overseas customers, and the gross profit rate continued to increase due to technology centralization, so as to maintain the high growth trend of the company in the future. The company continues to plan new production capacity. After the first phase of huizhou factory was put into use, the Indian company started construction. It plans to invest 600 million yuan to build an east China operation center in ningbo to serve key customers in the Yangtze river delta region and further expand production capacity.

Dedicated research and development of efficient motor and industrial control breakthrough, bring future performance flexibility. Relying on the main industry of intelligent controller for many years, the company has broken through the high value-added and high technology threshold fields such as high-efficiency motor and industrial control by means of endogenous extension, and formed a strong synergy with the main industry to build the moat of the industry. Due to the high value of single product, high efficiency motor and industrial control are expected to bring ten times the future business space of intelligent controller. The company is deeply engaged in the research and development of high-efficiency motors, which is expected to continue the high-speed growth trend this year. At the same time, through the research and control automation of subsidiaries, the company will accelerate the expansion of industrial intelligent control, servo motor and other high-margin fields, and is expected to grow into a comprehensive intelligent controller + motor solution provider in the future.

We maintain our company's 2017-19 earnings forecast at 2. 26, 3. 41, 4. 5 billion yuan, or 0. 33, 0. 50, 0. 66 yuan, maintain target price 16. 14 yuan, maintain the buy rating.

Review: the rights issue has been completed, and the lithium giant has relaunched

Research institution: guotai junan securities co., LTD. Researcher: liu huafeng date: 2017-12-27

The rights issue was implemented smoothly and the overweight rating was maintained. The company has successfully completed the rights offering, and the project of raising investment has been steadily promoted. The company is accelerating the expansion of the production capacity of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, and is expected to cement its leading position in solid lithium resources in the future by relying on resource endowment. Consider rights issue dilution to maintain 2017-19 EPS1. 97/2. 28/3. $34, maintain target price of $71. 62 yuan, corresponding to PE21x in 2019.

Share placement to raise funds to expand production. The total amount of rights issue subscription of tianqi lithium is 16. 300 million yuan, mainly used to boost Australia's annual output of 2. 40,000 tons battery lithium hydroxide project construction. As of April 21, 2017, the project has been put into operation for 3 months. 900 million yuan, the company will rely on its own cash flow and rights issue funds to accelerate the expansion of production in the future, is expected to start ore trial at the end of 2018, 10 months later capacity utilization rate to 80%. Considering Talison's high lithium opal grade and the lithium processing capacity of tianqi lithium, the leading position of the company is expected to further consolidate and maintain competitive production costs.

Steady progress was made in expanding production. The company began the second phase of its research in June 2017. The 40,000 tons/year lithium hydroxide project was approved and planned to raise 3. A $2.8 billion investment in construction, is expected to be completed by the end of 2019 pilot production. By then, the company will have completed the first phase of lithium hydroxide (completed in October 2018), telisson lithium pyroxene expansion project (with a total capacity of 180,000 tons/year lithium carbonate, completed in 2019) and the second phase of the project. And the planned suining lithium carbonate project. The company's total capacity will be about 8. 50,000 tons/year (lithium carbonate equivalent).

Catalyst: sales of new energy vehicles exceeded expectations;

Risk tip: industry capacity disorderly expansion.

Dang sheng technology: 2017 annual performance pre-increase, positive materials and intelligent equipment two-wheel drive

Research institution: lianxun securities co., LTD. Researcher: wang fenghua date: 2018-01-11

Event: when rising technology released 2017 annual performance pre-increase notice

When rising technology 2017 annual performance pre-increase announcement, the company is expected to be listed shareholders in 2017 net profit 2. 3 billion yuan -- 2. 5.1 billion yuan, up 132-153 percent year-on-year.

Positive materials and intelligent equipment business driven performance growth

Sales of new energy vehicles reached 60 million from January to November 2017. With 90,000 vehicles, we expect the annual sales volume to reach about 750,000. We expect the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of over 40% before 2020. Electric vehicle industry as a certain direction, the future of the upstream cathode materials industry is expected to maintain a high degree of prosperity, demand will continue to increase. The company currently has about 1. There is a capacity of 60,000 tons of anode materials, among which yanjiao base has a capacity of 6,000 tons of anode materials, part of which is lithium cobalt oxide, and Jiangsu has a capacity of 10,000 tons of high-nickel ternary anode materials. In addition, the company's private placement is used for construction and investment company 1. The 80,000 ton high nickel ternary material project has been approved by the CSRC, and the expansion of production capacity in the future will be accelerated to ensure the company's high growth in a longer period.

In 2016, the die cutting equipment of the 14 and 16 positions has been sold in bulk. These models have high technical content, obvious competitive advantages and considerable gross margin. At the same time, the motion controller independently developed by zhongding high-tech co., ltd. has been mass produced and applied to the whole model of die cutting equipment. Sliding multi - position laser die - cutting machine research and development progress is good, is expected to market as soon as possible. According to the performance commitment made by zhongding high-tech co., LTD to the company, the company has achieved performance of 37 million yuan, 43 million yuan and 49 million yuan respectively from 2015 to 2017. 2017 is the last year for betting. In addition, with a good prospect of downstream application market, the release of performance will be more sufficient.

Transfer xingcheng graphite equity to obtain non - recurring profit and loss

During the reporting period, the non-recurring profit and loss, including the equity income of hunan zhongke xingcheng graphite co., LTD., a joint-stock company, had an impact on the company's net profit of 10 million yuan to 11 million yuan. The non-recurring profit and loss from the transfer of xingcheng graphite was also the main source of the company's performance growth in 2017.

Earnings forecast and valuation

We forecast revenue of 22 in 2017, 2018 and 2019. 7.1 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan. 0.9 billion yuan and 4 billion yuan. 8.5 billion yuan, the net profit of the parent company is 2. 4.7 billion yuan, 2. 7.5 billion yuan and 3 billion yuan. 1.7 billion yuan, with EPS of 0. 68 yuan, 0 yuan. 75 dollars and 0 dollars. 87 yuan is equivalent to 37 times, 33 times and 29 times of PE in 2017, 2018 and 2019 respectively. After comprehensive consideration, 40 times of PE is given for 2018 and 30 times of target price is given. 00 ", maintain "overweight" rating.

Risk warning

Haimen project production schedule is not as expected, high nickel ternary material price fluctuations and demand is not as expected.

Ganfeng lithium: to meet the commercialization of solid lithium battery

Research institution: tianfeng securities co., LTD. Researcher: Yang chengxiao, tian yuan, sun liang, wang xiaopeng, li hui date: 2017-12-06

The company shall issue an investment notice: the board of directors of the company shall pass a motion to use its own funds 2. 500 million yuan investment in the construction of the first generation of solid lithium battery production line.

The incentive plan Outlines the commercialization of solid-state lithium batteries. In the first half of the year, the company introduced Dr. Xu xiaoxiong (head of the new energy solid-state lithium ion battery of the ministry of science and technology) and other technical personnel. According to the company's incentive plan, the assessment needs to be completed: the process should be mature in June 2018 (the first generation of solid-state lithium battery technology should be mature and be certified by a third party); It will be put into operation in December 2018 (the first generation solid-state lithium battery production line of gigawatt hour class will be built and samples will be sent); Sales will be realized in December 2019 (300 million yuan sales, second-generation solid-state lithium battery technology is mature, third-generation solid-state lithium battery can be developed). Commercial sales of solid-state lithium batteries are widely expected to take some time and the timing of the company's incentive plans is higher than expected.

Solid state lithium battery - the ultimate solution for lithium ion batteries. At present, lithium battery has two major problems: low safety and low energy density, which lead to low range of new energy vehicles. Solid lithium battery adopts solid electrolyte to replace diaphragm and electrolyte system with poor safety. The negative pole can also be changed to metal to gain higher energy density.

The parameters of the first generation solid - state lithium - ion battery are better. According to the incentive plan, the energy density of the company's first-generation solid-state lithium battery cell can reach 240WH/KG. According to the estimation of a single 500-kg battery pack, the power can reach 80KWH. According to the current EV range of 6km/KWH, the range is expected to reach 480km. After 1000 cycles, the maximum power is still 90%. The battery can last for more than 8 years by charging once every 3 days (160 kilometers per day) at home. The battery has more than 5C charging and discharging capacity, which means the charging speed can reach 12 minutes. If it can be applied, it basically solves the bottleneck of convenience and safety of new energy vehicles.

Ganfeng metal lithium wild hope. The most important step to improve the energy density of solid lithium battery is to change the negative electrode to lithium metal. The energy density of solid lithium battery cells with NCM811 positive electrode and lithium metal negative electrode is expected to reach 399Wh/Kg. The promotion of solid-state lithium batteries using lithium metal is expected to increase the demand for lithium metal. The company has a long history of lithium metal production, currently has a capacity of 1,500 tons of lithium metal, is one of the world's largest lithium metal producers, is expected to promote the promotion of solid lithium battery in lithium metal demand growth.

Earnings forecast and rating: we forecast EPS of 2 for 2017-19. 15 yuan, 3 yuan. Forty dollars and four dollars. That's $84, which corresponds to the closing price of $68 on December 5. The dynamic PE of 38 yuan is 32 times, 20 times and 14 times, respectively. The company's solid-state lithium battery has a clear process and good technical parameters, and it is expected to take the lead in lithium metal. Therefore, the company maintains its "buy" rating.

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