Prediction: the development situation of the power lithium electric equipment industry in 2018-2022

The pressure of energy conservation and environmental protection and energy security are the internal driving forces for the growth of the demand for new energy vehicles. In comparison, on the one hand, new energy vehicles meet the objective requirements of environmental protection and energy security; on the other hand, as an important economic growth point, new energy vehicle industry has been vigorously promoted by various countries, including the Freedomcar plan launched by the United States, the smart grid plan, and the NEDO plan of Japan.

As one of the seven strategic emerging industries in China, new energy vehicle industry is strongly supported by policies. In February 2016, the state council further defined support for the development of the new energy vehicle industry, proposing measures such as promoting the establishment of an innovation platform for power batteries, accelerating the construction of charging facilities, and expanding the proportion of the application of new energy vehicles in urban public transportation and other fields. With the falling cost of lithium batteries, increasing variety of models and improving supporting facilities, the new energy automobile industry is expected to accelerate its growth. China produced 42 new energy vehicles in the first 11 months of 2016, according to the China association of automobile manufacturers. 700,000 (340,000 pure electric vehicles, 8 plug-in hybrid. 70,000), up 61 percent year-on-year. 38%.

Considering that the average battery capacity of all-electric passenger cars is about 25Kwh, the average battery capacity of passenger cars is about 150-250kwh, the average battery capacity of special cars is about 30-40kwh, the average battery capacity of hybrid passenger cars is about 15Kwh, and the average battery capacity of passenger cars is about 30kwh. According to the replacement and new demand of the stock, it is estimated that the total demand for lithium battery for vehicle use in 2016 can reach 30Gwh, with the growth rate approaching 100%.

Production capacity of lithium battery manufacturers continues to expand, driving the growth of demand for lithium battery equipment

Benefiting from the rapid volume growth of new energy vehicles, lithium battery manufacturers have expanded their production capacity. Take guoxuan, the leader of lithium battery industry, for example, it has actively laid out production line construction, phase iii base 4. 500 million ampere hour production line is under accelerated construction.

In addition to guoxuan, other enterprises such as CATL, byd, lishen and lifan have also launched expansion plans. According to grassroots research and statistics of lithium power industry, the planned capacity of related lithium power enterprises in 2016 is about 50Gwh, among which the first-line high-end capacity is about 30Gwh. The booming lithium power industry continues to drive the continuous growth of demand for lithium power equipment. In addition, in February 2016, jianrui fire announced that it planned to acquire 100% equity of lithium battery enterprise watmar, and raised 400 million yuan to invest in the lithium battery production line project. The capital markets' favour also reflects the attractive outlook for the lithium battery industry.

The lithium battery industry enters the integration window period, and the secondary expansion helps the demand growth of lithium battery equipment. On November 22, 2016, the ministry of industry and information technology issued the specification conditions of automobile power battery industry (2017) (draft for comments), which for the first time put forward specific requirements on the production capacity of power battery enterprises and power battery system enterprises. Power battery system enterprise capacity is not less than 80,000 sets or 4GWh. The draft for comments on the size of enterprise capacity requirements increase, industry threshold significantly increased, which will help improve the concentration of the industry, at the same time, leading enterprises and threshold standards edge enterprises or set off a new round of expansion wave.

At present, major lithium battery manufacturers have launched expansion plans, CATL, guoxuan, lishen 17 years planned capacity of 12. 6, 9. 7 and 6. 6GWh, it is estimated that the total capacity of major manufacturers in 2016 and 2017 will reach 52 respectively. 2 GWH and 82. 1 GWH. China produced 42 new energy vehicles in the first 11 months of this year. Even if the growth rate is maintained next year, the demand for corresponding batteries is still lower than the industry capacity. At present, the industry low-end lithium battery capacity may appear excess, and high-end lithium battery is still in short supply, sanyo, panasonic's lithium battery capacity has been able to achieve 3. 1AH, whereas in China it's mostly 2. About 2 ah.

With the lithium battery industry into the integration period, a new round of expansion wave will help the demand for lithium battery equipment to continue to grow.

Lithium battery manufacturing center to the domestic transfer, domestic equipment advantage highlights

In the global market, the international mainstream battery manufacturers mainly come from Japan and South Korea, samsung, panasonic, LG, SONY and other giants occupy the absolute advantage, the main reason is that the downstream application field, especially in the field of new energy vehicles for lithium battery quality requirements. The domestic lithium battery manufacturing industry is relatively scattered, and the main producers include CATL, byd, lishen, guangyu, bick and so on.

Although domestic companies still account for a small share of the overall international market, lithium ion battery manufacturing centers have been shifting domestically. Under the background of continuous optimization of domestic investment environment and relatively low labor cost, lithium ion battery manufacturing center moves to China according to the path of materials, batteries and vehicles.

Foreign lithium electric equipment manufacturing enterprises started earlier, especially the basic machining strength of Japan and South Korea, product refinement, high degree of automation. Foreign lithium battery equipment enterprises mainly adopt the strategy of single product competition to provide single link production equipment in the lithium battery production process. Although there is still a certain gap between domestic and foreign lithium electric equipment technology, but domestic lithium electric equipment has a more complete product line, short delivery cycle characteristics, in general, more cost-effective.

Equipment quality is excellent, cost advantage gradually appeared. Foreign equipment research and development started early, precision equipment, relatively high degree of automation, but domestic battery model transformation is bigger, use foreign equipment transformation cost is very high, and the domestic equipment battery production in China, the development and manufacture process characteristics, strong adaptability, the price of the same type of domestic equipment generally is only half of the imported equipment. With the continuous improvement of lithium battery equipment technology, the cost performance advantage and substitution effect on imported equipment will become more and more obvious.

Domestic equipment delivery cycle is short. The delivery cycle of domestic equipment is generally 3-6 months, much lower than that of imported equipment. Domestic equipment has natural regional advantages.

The product line is complete, the whole line solution ability is strong. Foreign equipment manufacturers often provide a single link of equipment, and domestic equipment manufacturers can timely according to the needs of enterprises on-site installation, commissioning. In addition, the whole line solution can avoid the problems caused by the integration of different links of equipment and has more advantages.

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