Power battery lithium hydroxide or become the "biggest winner"

Recently, both BYD and Ningde eras broke the news that high-nickel 811 batteries will be launched next year! In the previous impression, the two giants seem to be not active on the high-nickel 811 battery, because BAK Battery, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and other companies have already produced high-nickel 811 batteries. The boss and the second child in the field of power batteries in the country have finally taken the shot, and the signal of release is very obvious. The high-nickel ternary era is really coming!

This is of course something to celebrate. The other news that seems to be "incompatible with the wind and the horse" has caught the attention of the battery China network. On August 14, Haofeng Lithium announced that Yanfeng Lithium and its wholly-owned subsidiary, Qifeng International, signed a contract with LG Chem, stipulating from January 1, 2019 to December 31, 2022, to LG. Chemical sales of lithium hydroxide products totaled 47,600 tons.

LG Chem has purchased lithium hydroxide in such a large scale, but the specific use has not been disclosed, but LG Chemical's high-nickel 811-battery is well known, although it has previously announced a delay in mass production. As everyone in the industry knows, lithium hydroxide is an indispensable key material for making high-nickel 811 batteries, which makes people guess that LG Chemical has a greater ambition.

High nickel 811-battery is inseparable from lithium hydroxide

Why do high nickel 811 batteries use lithium hydroxide as a raw material? Because high-nickel materials must be synthesized at high temperatures in a pure oxygen atmosphere, the furnace material must be resistant to oxygen corrosion, and the temperature required for sintering should not exceed 800 ° C, and lithium carbonate is used as a raw material, resulting in excessive alkalinity and sensitivity to humidity, increased performance, affecting battery performance.

Compared with lithium carbonate, the use of lithium hydroxide to obtain high nickel ternary materials has higher energy density and better charge and discharge performance. Studies have shown that the use of lithium hydroxide as a lithium source material, the first discharge capacity of up to 172mAh / g, and a better tap density, with a higher rate of charge and discharge performance. The ternary positive electrode NCM811, NCM622 and NCA all need to use lithium hydroxide as raw material to gradually replace lithium carbonate.

High nickel 811 battery pulls lithium hydroxide demand

In recent years, power batteries have gradually tilted toward high energy density ternary cells, while ternary cathode materials have gradually transitioned to high nickel. With the adjustment of national policies and the high price of cobalt, the high-nickel 811 battery has become the development trend of the future power battery. At present, the domestic cylindrical 811 material battery technology problem has been basically solved. 2018 is considered to be the first year of high-nickel 811 battery production.

With the increase in demand for high-nickel batteries, demand for lithium hydroxide is expected to increase significantly. The industry believes that high-nickel ternary batteries starting with battery-grade lithium hydroxide in 2019 will gradually become the mainstream of market demand. Generally speaking, about 787.5 tons of lithium hydroxide is required per 1 GWH high nickel ternary battery. According to forecasts, the global demand for battery-grade lithium hydroxide in 2018 may have an explosive growth, which is expected to reach 47,000 tons. The compound growth rate of lithium hydroxide demand in the global battery field is expected to reach 78% from 2018 to 2020.

Globally, with the mass production of Model3, the Tesla Super Factory has become an important demand driver for lithium hydroxide. Tesla will achieve a target of 500,000 vehicles per year and a production capacity of 35 GWh per year for super battery plants. It consumes about 24,000 tons of battery-grade lithium hydroxide per year. Only the Tesla family's demand for battery-grade lithium hydroxide in 2018, 2019, and 2020 will be as high as 23,800 tons, 33,000 tons, and 46,200 tons, respectively.

Lithium hydroxide is bullish

Lithium hydroxide is gradually favored, and lithium carbonate is inevitable, which has already been reflected in the price. Since October 2017, battery-grade lithium carbonate has slipped from a high point of 168,000 yuan/ton. As the market gradually ferments the expectation of oversupply of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium carbonate has been declining. As of July 2018, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 11.3- 11.8 million yuan / ton. Yanfeng Lithium said on the investor interaction platform that the decline in the price of lithium carbonate was mainly caused by insufficient demand in the downstream market.

In contrast to the price of lithium carbonate, the price of lithium hydroxide is bullish. In July 2018, battery-grade lithium hydroxide was quoted at 13.5-15 million yuan/ton, and it is expected to reach 180,000/ton in 2018. It is estimated that in 2018, the demand for China's cathode materials for lithium powder grade lithium hydroxide (higher than battery grade) is between 7,000 tons and 10,000 tons, accounting for about 15-% and 20% of the total lithium hydroxide supply in the whole year. It is expected that the price of micronized lithium hydroxide will remain high in the second half of 2018, and the price difference with lithium carbonate will further widen.

Lithium hydroxide deposit huge supply gap

The demand for lithium hydroxide has increased greatly. However, from the perspective of supply, the current international giants have not much capacity for lithium hydroxide. The existing domestic production capacity seems to be quite a lot, but it is mainly reliable to own minerals. A small number of enterprises, such as Haofeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium, are still unknown in terms of how much capacity other companies can release in the future, and the expansion of new capacity will take another 1-2 years.

The data shows that in 2017, the global production of lithium hydroxide was 47,500 tons, the demand was 50,100 tons, and the gap was 0.26 million tons. The industry believes that in the future, if there is no major breakthrough in the industrialization technology of lithium purification in salt lake brines in China, the supply and demand gap of domestic battery-grade lithium hydroxide will be larger, and the price of battery-grade lithium hydroxide may also reach 200,000/ More than a ton of steps.

Battery China Network believes that with the advent of the high nickel 811 era, lithium hydroxide will become the target of the global battery industry chain giants, while downstream battery companies and vehicle manufacturers to ensure the supply of battery-grade lithium hydroxide, Lithium giants have purchased lithium hydroxide in large quantities, or have reached a strategic partnership with them or even established a joint venture company, which has become the only way.

As the leader of China's power battery industry, BYD and Ningde era high nickel 811 will definitely have a major impact on the high nickel battery market, and will also strengthen China's power battery industry. And LG Chem's "small foot first" industry, can be described as far-sighted, domestic companies are also supposed to plan ahead, do the next step?

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