How do industry giants view the price of lithium batteries?

Assistant General Manager of Dongfeng Yangzijiang Automobile, Chief Engineer Lei Hongjun: Pay attention to the pass rate and transaction cost

In the field of new energy vehicles, the cost of power batteries accounts for nearly half of the cost of manufacturing vehicles. The trend of battery prices plays a crucial role in the cost of electric vehicles. Dongfeng Yangzijiang Automobile Assistant General Manager, Chief Engineer Lei Hongjun told reporters: "Battery costs have shown a downward trend. This year, compared with last year, it has dropped by 15% ~ 20%, and may be reduced by about 20% next year."

Lei Hongjun believes that it is not difficult for battery companies to lower prices to a certain extent. The improvement of battery specific energy only needs to be improved at the formulation level, and there is basically no cost increase. In Lei Hongjun's view, the government's demand for battery manufacturers' production threshold is also expected to reduce the cost of batteries through scale, and promote the industrialization of electric vehicles.

It is also achievable for power battery companies to further reduce the price. Lei Hongjun gave some suggestions: First, the production capacity is improved through technological advancement. For battery companies, especially small and medium-sized battery companies, starting from technology research and development, improving product qualification rate It is an effective way to reduce costs; the second is to improve transaction efficiency, reduce transaction costs, and excessive transaction costs are an important reason for the high cost of power battery companies.

Chery New Energy Car Market Minister Lu huaping: There are still few battery companies with strength

In the view of Lu Huaping, the director of Chery New Energy Automobile Market, the price of domestic new energy vehicle power battery is declining. Take the ternary lithium battery as an example. The price has dropped from 2,000 yuan/kWh two or three years ago to 1400. Yuan / kWh or so. Lu Huaping told the China Auto News that the decline in battery costs could not match the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles. Generally, production costs can be diluted by large-scale production. However, due to the rising battery capacity in the past two years, many enterprises have not yet reached production. Therefore, batteries with better quality are still relatively tight.

Lu Huaping believes that there are still few power battery companies with stable production capacity in China. Therefore, such battery companies have a greater voice, and car companies and battery companies are still negotiating. It is estimated that the decline in battery prices will not be obvious.

In the past two years, battery companies and vehicle companies have generally signed a strategic agreement to maintain the stability of battery supply and demand. Lu Huaping believes that many auto companies will take the initiative to sign agreements with battery companies in order to ensure the supply of batteries. However, with the gradual increase in battery capacity, more battery companies will choose to actively cooperate with vehicle companies in order to ensure sales.

Du Guozhong, Assistant General Manager of BYD Sales Company: Scaled Production Diluted Cost

BYD is different from the domestic general new energy auto companies. It is not only involved in vehicle manufacturing, but also has a deeper foundation and strength in the field of power batteries. Its power battery capacity is about 12 and women. Du Guozhong, assistant general manager of BYD Auto Sales Co., Ltd. believes that the production cost of automobiles can be diluted by means of large-scale production. “When the production capacity of the enterprise reaches 50,000, 100,000 or even more than 200,000, the production cost of the automobile can be obviously decline."

BYD has maintained a good momentum in the field of new energy vehicles. Large-scale production can not only help it reduce production costs, but also reduce the cost of batteries. It is also reflected in the cost of complete vehicles. After all, most of the batteries on BYD electric vehicles still It is your own supply. Perhaps BYD is the country that is the least troubled by the price of power batteries in China.

Qi Yiliang, the head of the China National Aviation lithium battery Market: It is normal for the battery price to drop by 15% annually.

Qi Yiliang, the head of the AVIC Lithium-Ion Marketing Department, said: “In order to keep pace with the promotion of new energy vehicles, most of the top two or 30 companies in the power battery industry’s shipments last year expanded their production, so they include upstream equipment such as production equipment and raw materials. There has been a situation of tight production capacity."

Yan Yiliang said that in the past two years, the upstream materials of lithium batteries have maintained a rising trend, and the price of cobalt materials has risen the most. However, from the perspective of downstream new energy auto companies, due to the decline of the state financial subsidy policy, customers of battery companies have also proposed price cuts. The decline has reached about 20%. He pointed out: "We have expected the price of power battery to drop by 8% to 10%. Now it seems that the annual decline of more than 15% is normal. It is possible to achieve 25% of individual products. What will happen in 2018? It is difficult to predict. As far as I know, the relevant departments are formulating incentive policies of non-financial subsidies to support the development of the entire new energy automobile industry."

Although every battery company in China has different control over prices, improving management and expanding production capacity are the necessary paths for most battery companies. Yan Yiliang said: "We mainly improve management from the inside of the enterprise, improve battery capacity, optimize equipment and processes, etc. to meet the demand for power battery expansion."

BAK Battery Manager: Raw material prices rise with speculation

Recently, the power battery industry has seen the phenomenon that “downstream car companies are forced to cut prices and the price of upstream materials soars”. The person in charge of BAK Battery said in an interview that the cost of power battery raw materials will fluctuate from the end of 2015. , showing a situation of floating up.

The person in charge said: "Initially the price increase of lithium carbonate was adjusted to a medium price last year, that is, the level that everyone can accept. At the end of 2016, the price of cobalt has risen. From the perspective of supply and demand, this is not because supply is in short supply. For example, in 2007, the price of cobalt rose to more than 100,000 yuan a ton. The reason was that the demand for notebook computers expanded, which led to the shortage of raw materials, but it was actually man-made. The price reduction was very large after three months." So he According to the analysis, it is mainly factory speculation. From the overall point of view, the rise of cathode materials will not last too long. In May and June, the follow-up trend can be seen.

When talking about how to face the current situation of both upstream and downstream enterprises, the person in charge said that BAK will reduce costs through technology or management. He said: "Cost control is a systematic project. BAK currently mainly adopts two methods of technology and management. In terms of technology, we control from materials and production in many directions, such as materials, currently on the market, the ternary material is in the proportion of "532", that is, 50% nickel, 30% cobalt, 20% manganese, and Bic uses the "811" system. Relatively speaking, the highest price cobalt material accounts for the lowest proportion, which allows us to The overall control of production costs has also allowed us to obtain a lot of bargaining space. In terms of negative materials, BAK is also actively promoting price cuts. Its reserves are very substantial, so the price is relatively stable. In general, it is still through large-scale procurement. Ways to control the price of raw materials."

According to the person in charge, in addition to production management, BAK has introduced advanced equipment and refined management models to ensure the qualified rate of products, including on-site management in Taiwan and Japan.

Based on the reality of the country subsidies, consumer demand and other realities, the person in charge pointed out that the battery industry cost pressure is huge, when talking about the price target for the next five years, he said that Bick's current battery and package (battery pack) The reported price is basically at the middle level of the industry, and will gradually decrease in the next few years. In the end, in 2020, the price of batteries and packages will be reduced by about 50% compared with 2016.

Qin Xingcai, Vice Chairman of Lishen Battery: There is no shortage of monopoly in the raw material market

Qin Xingcai, vice chairman of Tianjin Lishen Battery Co., Ltd., said that “two-head extrusion” is a reality faced by battery companies. "Because financial subsidies are declining, new energy vehicles, especially bus companies, face great challenges, and battery companies face greater challenges. Not only are the prices of raw materials such as cobalt, nickel and copper rising, but auto companies are also demanding price cuts. Therefore, we are under great pressure." But he also said that from the perspective of national strategy, battery price reduction is a general trend, and it is necessary to cut the price of the scalp in order to make the people accept electric vehicles.

In the past two years, the power battery industry has developed rapidly, but the production of battery raw material enterprises has not kept pace, resulting in a situation in which market competition has not yet formed. Therefore, the price of raw materials has risen recently and the stocks have fluctuated. In this regard, Qin Xingcai said: "Some upstream raw material enterprises constitute a monopoly on the industry. It is recommended that the upstream development should be coordinated, and no monopoly can be formed. The state should also consider the top-level design and plan the industrial chain."

Qin Xingcai suggested: "The battery raw material market needs both market competition mechanism and national overall planning, and supports from industrial policies."

At present, there are more than 200 large and small battery companies in China, and different battery companies have different control over prices. The country hopes that three to five companies will stand out and participate in international competition, but this process also requires a lot of investment. Qin Xingcai said: "There were several companies that financed last year, but if profits are greatly reduced this year, many companies may not be able to complete financing, and at the same time bring development difficulties." He said that the battery industry is capital-intensive and Technology-intensive industries, so the future trend of the battery industry needs to look at the core competitiveness of battery companies themselves, some will be integrated, and some investment enthusiasm will decline, this will be a survival of the fittest process.

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