Nickel price deduction from the battery industry

Looking back at the trend of nickel prices in the past four months, the overall rise in shocks, the external than the internal plate slightly stronger.

Stainless steel is still the basis of the nickel price trend. The market's expectations for stainless steel are more consistent: the recovery in the first quarter due to Spring Festival factors and demand was slower than in the same period last year, resulting in weak demand for stainless steel in the first quarter to the second quarter, but domestic economic pull will still lead to a mild recovery in demand for stainless steel. The annual growth rate is expected to remain basically the same or slightly lower than last year.

The new energy vehicle factor is still a major source of market volatility. From the perspective of nickel sulfate processing price difference, once the price difference exceeds 6,000 yuan from below, the market sentiment is often biased toward optimism. In the trend, the price of nickel and nickel sulfate will rise, but often the overall price of nickel sulfate will increase. More than nickel price. Therefore, from the technical point of view and statistics, the processing price difference of just over 6,000 yuan is the safety margin of the multi-processing price difference, and the processing price difference of about 8,000 yuan is the time for short-selling the price difference.

Judging from the fundamentals of new energy vehicles, the biggest expectation is that the state policy stipulates that the number of new energy vehicles will reach more than 2 million by 2020, and to achieve this goal, the annual growth rate of new energy vehicles will be at least 40 per cent. In fact, from another perspective, even if some months or even a certain year of growth of new energy vehicles did not meet the requirements of the growth rate of 40 per cent per month, this means that new energy vehicles will most likely exceed 40 per cent in the following years.

In the industrial chain, although the supply of nickel sulfate in 2017 exceeded the demand, the expansion rate of ternary material manufacturers was still higher than the expansion rate of nickel sulfate production capacity of about 56.5 <UNK>, resulting in an expected shortage of nickel sulfate supply. The ternary material to the battery factory end, the ternary material end is subject to cobalt price rise, have to continuously improve the ratio of nickel in the ternary battery. At the same time, because the new energy automotive industry is a growth stage, the battery model has not formed an industry norm and a more consistent classification, and the Sanyuan Material Factory has produced three materials corresponding to different types of batteries according to the order of the battery factory, thus objectively causing three parts. The material factory has a higher inventory. Its inventory depreciation risk, capital turnover risk is higher. The ternary material factory is squeezed by the rise of upstream materials and the accumulation of downstream stocks. There is a natural power to expand to ensure that the purpose of growth of the secondary enterprise is not eliminated first, resulting in the current supply of ternary materials that exceeds the battery demand. From the battery factory to the manufacturer of new energy vehicles, the larger battery factories in the market often cooperate with the mainstream manufacturers of new energy vehicles such as Tesla, Samsung, LG, etc., or are themselves upstream of the industrial chain of new energy car manufacturers, indicating that the battery industry is In the industrial integration phase, Enterprises in the industry are integrated or acquired by downstream auto manufacturers, and the operating risk of small and medium-sized battery plants will further increase. In the future, the integration situation of the industrial chain of new energy automotive manufacturers will continue to expand from the battery end to the three-part material end and the raw material integration production.

Returning to the comparative advantage of nickel sulfate production of nickel beans and other raw materials to produce nickel sulfate, the comprehensive cost of nickel sulfate production using nickel beans is lower than that of nickel sulfate production using hydroxyl nickel powder and nickel hydroxide. The comprehensive cost of nickel sulfate production is similar to that of nickel reduction powder, but it is higher than that of nickel sulfate crystal remelting. From this point of view, under the tight supply of nickel sulfate in the market, nickel bean soluble in sulfuric acid to produce nickel sulfate is one of the best solutions to solve the shortage of nickel sulfate supply. At the same time, compared to reducing nickel powder to produce nickel sulfate, the supply of nickel beans is larger and more stable, and the price elasticity of producing nickel sulfate as a substitute for nickel beans is also lower than that of other raw materials. The risk of fluctuations in production costs is lower for production companies. Companies and markets also have incentives to buy nickel beans when the price difference between nickel and nickel sulfate is appropriate. Therefore, through nickel beans, the price of nickel sulfate will be more closely related to the price of nickel(it is also produced from nickel sulfide, and the correlation between the two is also higher in the absence of nickel beans to produce nickel sulfate). The performance on the disk is that when the nickel price falls, the lower limit of the nickel price calculated by nickel sulfate will be one of the more favorable supports for the nickel price.

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