Iron lithium battery or has reached the peak

It seems that within a week, the policy of new energy power battery is concentrated on the thickening of the month. On the 22nd, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology website announced the "Automobile Power Battery Industry Standard Conditions (2017)" (hereinafter referred to as "Standard Conditions") for comments, stipulates that "lithium-ion The annual production capacity of power battery cells is not less than 80 billion watt-hours, and the capacity of 40 times soaring requires rapid detonation of the industry. A few days later, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology put forward at the public meeting on further improving the safety supervision and application of new energy vehicles. "From January 1, 2017, the new application for the "New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Model Catalogue" uses three yuan. For passenger cars with batteries, a third-party test report should be submitted at the same time." This is considered to be the restoration of the qualification of the ternary lithium battery bus to apply for a new energy recommendation catalog.

At about the same time, another news from a power battery policymaker was widely spread. "The power battery catalog is an industry standard condition. After discussion, it is considered that it should not be linked to the new energy vehicle promotion catalog. The battery only needs to meet the "new energy vehicle production." Subsidies can be obtained for the relevant technical standards of the Enterprise and Product Access Management Regulations (Revised Draft for Soliciting Opinions). However, as of press time, no official agencies responded.

On December 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Interim Measures for the Management of Recycling and Utilization of Power Battery for New Energy Vehicles" (Draft for Comment) to solicit opinions, and once again improve the entry barrier for power batteries.

The concentration of a number of policy intentions, let the power battery industry reborn, is the peak circuit or high threshold? 40 times the capacity requirements are considered to kill almost all power battery companies, but the "ban" of the ternary battery has ushered in The industry’s “door reopening” cheers.

The release of the forecast of the link makes the policy attitude more confusing. If it is linked, the threshold of 80 billion capacity will keep most of the battery companies out of the subsidy gate. If it is not linked, what is the significance of setting such a high production capacity threshold? Because of the "standard conditions for automotive power battery industry (2017) (hereinafter referred to as "standard conditions") is a non-mandatory certification, which is not binding on the use and promotion of power batteries.

Policy fog

"Everyone's understanding has problems." The Ministry of Science and Technology's 863 plan for the director of the electric vehicle power battery major special inspection center, Wang Zidong, opened the door and denied the industry's understanding of the ban on the ternary battery and the surge in production capacity.

At the end of January this year, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced that due to the safety risks, the ternary lithium battery bus was suspended for the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles. At the end of November, the ternary lithium battery access door was reopened. In the "Notice on Further Improving the Safety Supervision of the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" (completed "Notice"), there are 160 new energy vehicle companies participating in the news, as long as the certificate is submitted to meet the "Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Buses" The third-party test report, the bus using the ternary lithium battery can be returned to the catalog. "There is no lifting of the ban, but instead it is restricted by higher requirements." Prince Dong stressed that more attention should be paid to the release of "Safety Technical Conditions for Electric Buses", which has "battery unit heat" for rechargeable energy storage systems. The requirements of tests such as “runaway test” and “thermal runaway expansion test of rechargeable energy storage system” are the new standards based on the safety risk assessment of electric buses from January to April this year, and will also comprehensively upgrade the ternary lithium battery bus. The technical entry barrier.

In any case, the industry entry of the ternary lithium-ion battery bus, which was suspended for one year, was reopened, which made the new energy vehicle field excited. In a sense, this also dispersed the industry’s power battery regulation issued a few days ago. Conditions") attention and controversy in the draft for comments.

For the "Lithium-ion power battery cell companies with an annual production capacity of not less than 80 billion watt-hours".

The skeptics believe that according to the current enterprise expansion plan, companies that are expected to meet the battery capacity requirements include BYD, CATL, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech. The three production capacity at the end of 2017 is 16, women (billion watt-hours) 16, women, women and 10.7.

Battery industry expert Dr. Cao Wenpeng, director of the Strategic Cooperation Department, also provided data. Currently, the top ten battery manufacturers in the world (mainly lithium batteries), the number one Japanese Matsushita capacity in the first half of 2016 is only 30 At 10,000 watt-hours, Panasonic's 1860 ternary lithium battery is mainly supplied to Tesladi. The two BYD's production capacity in the first half of the year was 15 billion watt-hours, and the first half of the Ningde era, which was tied with BYD, was also 15 billion watt-hours. "The 80-year-old watt-hour capacity threshold is equivalent to killing all battery companies."

According to data released by Liu Yanlong, secretary general of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, in 2015, the total number of power batteries for the whole vehicle was 16.68 billion watt-hours, and the total matching amount in the first half of this year was only 6.67 billion watt-hours. It is estimated that by the end of 2016, the national power battery planning capacity will reach 100 million to 600 watt-hours, but the capacity utilization rate can only reach 50%. The doubters believe that a large amount of production capacity has been released.

Regarding the question, Wang Zidong said with a firm attitude, "I said a few years ago that China's power battery industry must cultivate enterprises with the right to speak in the world, otherwise, we will be destroyed by the whole army! We can no longer be in the power battery industry. Going to the sea tactics, we must go up to the level and scale." In 2015, there were more than 150 power battery companies supporting the whole vehicle in China, and will increase to 160 in 2016. The large enterprises entering the catalog are generally in short supply. Small-scale battery companies are increasing in size. Through the merger and reorganization, the call to establish a battery leading enterprise has always existed.

For the 80-year-old watt-hour threshold, Wang Zidong calculated an account: For a passenger car company, the production scale of 100,000 cars is the starting point of an economic batch, and the battery pack is 30-40kWh (kWh). The total energy calculation will require a battery supply of 30 - 4 billion watt-hours / year, equivalent to 1.3 - 18,000 electric bus battery requirements. The country hopes that by 2020, China will be able to reach sales of 200 million electric vehicles. Calculating the scale of a medium- and large-scale battery company.

The blue sea of the blue sky

Regardless of the policy intentions, the ternary lithium battery has quickly demonstrated the strong growth momentum from the Blue Ocean to the Red Sea. According to statistics, in November alone, nine companies invested in the expansion of power battery projects, including Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Lixin Jiangsu, Yufu shares, Camel shares, and other companies, all of which are ternary lithium batteries. Among them, Lixin (Jiangsu), which was just established in June this year, has an annual output of 40 billion watts. According to the expansion plan of domestic battery companies, the planned capacity of the power battery industry in 2017 will reach 100 million to 900 watt-hours.

According to public data, in 2015, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 69% of the total energy supply of new energy vehicles, lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 69%, ternary batteries accounted for 27%, and other systems accounted for about 4%. Cao Wenpeng believes that from the perspective of technological advancement, ternary batteries are the future development direction, especially in passenger cars and special vehicles. With the new standard of ternary battery safety technology, the demand for policy suppression will be released quickly in the short term. .

"The policy intends to promote the development of the technology direction of the ternary battery based on the technology of lithium iron phosphate battery. The most obvious signal is that both the BYD and Ningde eras are developing ternary lithium batteries. Their current main products are lithium iron phosphate battery". For the 2018 ternary battery production ratio will overtake the iron system, is expected to reach 36.5 to women's predictions, Cao Wenpeng said, "the possibility is very large, the iron-lithium battery has reached its peak."

Liu Yanlong also pointed out that in the future, it is necessary to speed up the adjustment of the structure of power battery products. "After the market is opened in the next few years, the high-energy energy ternary material battery will accelerate development. At present, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is still too large, and enterprises should pay attention to prevent risks.". Another point of view pointed out that the first step is to set the high capacity threshold of the battery, and then let go of the qualification of the ternary lithium battery bus. The echo of the policy is yes.

Another variable that may be faced by power batteries, including ternary batteries, is the relationship between the list of power battery catalogs and the new energy catalog and subsidies. “The subsidy policy is currently not linked to the battery list. It does not mean that it will not be linked in the future, nor does it mean that other policies will not be linked to it.” Zhou Peng, CEO of Huaying (Changzhou) Power Technology Co., Ltd. said.

This risk assessment is accelerating the reshuffle of power battery companies. On November 25th, SKInnovation (hereinafter referred to as skiing), a subsidiary of the third largest enterprise group in Korea, announced the suspension of the joint venture in China. South Korean skiing said that this was a decision made in consideration of the newly issued "Regulations" (draft for comment). It is reported that skiing and the other two Korean battery companies Samsung SDI and LG Chem, which have already established factories in China, are far from the 80-year-old watt-hour threshold. After smashing the ternary battery ban, Korean battery companies have once again encountered production capacity thresholds. The industry believes that the storm in the field of power batteries is far from over.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.