Power battery cost reduction analysis

In 2017, NCM111 and NCM523 occupied the mainstream status of ternary materials, and gradually transitioned to NCM622. However, this year, under various comprehensive considerations, power battery applications have the tendency to skip NCM 622 and adopt NCM811 directly.

A senior executive of a large electrolyte company told Gaogong Lithium: "From the point of view of our contact, the proportion of high-nickel battery electrolytes last year was not too high, but this year there will be a substantial increase (or more matching NCM811). It is expected to increase by about 30%. The high-nickel ternary is the earliest used for cylindrical batteries, and the amount is also the most."

In addition to the electrolyte company's perception of the downstream application of NCM811 trend, the positive material company as a product provider also revealed the relevant application of NCM811.

In February, Dangsheng Technology said that the company's NCM811 products have begun mass production, mainly for domestic power battery customers. Previous news showed that Ningbo Jinhe, Tianjin Bamo, Shanshan Energy, and Ningbo Rongbai Lithium Battery also achieved good results progress.

In terms of power battery, the research from Guotai Junan shows that the application of NCM811 in cylindrical power battery is basically mature. Domestic such as BAK, lishen, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Far East Foster, etc. are all on the scale, and the mass production progress exceeds expectations.

Promoting the NCM811 to accelerate the mass production application is the huge pressure of high cobalt price and quality reduction.

On the one hand, since the second half of 2016, the price of metallic cobalt has continued to rise, from 200,000 Yuan / ton to 600,000 Yuan / ton. By 2018, cobalt prices have not shown signs of decline, and even the world's largest cobalt mine, Congo, is the implementation of the tax increase policy, coupled with the expansion of the market demand for ternary materials, makes the public opinion more inclined that cobalt prices will rise further.

On the other hand, the implementation of the subsidy declining system, the willingness to reduce the cost of new energy vehicles is strong, and the price of power batteries is declining. The pressure on battery manufacturers is significantly lower, and the demand for cost reduction is very urgent. In the face of the 2018 subsidy new policy, only high Energy density batteries can receive high subsidies, and battery companies using high-nickel cathodes are an inevitable trend.

A good way to use NCM811 or "the best of both worlds"

According to data from Guotai Junan, the market mature 18650 power battery uses 532 cathode materials, the battery capacity is 2.5AH, and the 811 cathode material capacity can reach 2.75AH. The cost of 811 units WH cathode material is 0.39 Yuan, while using 532 the unit cost WH positive material cost is 0.414 Yuan, and the cost is reduced by 6%.

On the whole, the weight of the positive electrode material using 811 single cells decreased by 9%. According to this, the cost of the corresponding diaphragm, electrolyte and copper foil will also decrease. In the conservative principle, the unit cost is 811. The decline is 7%, and after considering PACK, the overall unit WH cost is reduced by about 8%.

It is worth mentioning that the large-scale application of 811 is also a big advantage for the cathode material enterprises. The current price of 532 is 230,000 Yuan, and the price of 811 is 260,000 Yuan. The current market situation assumes that the processing cost of 532 is 0.5 million Yuan / ton, 811 processing costs of 10,000 Yuan / ton, then 532 gross margin is 15%, while 811's gross margin can reach 27%, nearly doubled.

Obviously, the large-scale application of NCM811 is a win-win situation for car companies, power battery companies and cathode materials companies. Combined with market demand, it is expected that 2018 will be the first year of NCM811 mass production.

While expecting the NCM811's eye-catching performance, some of the problems behind it cannot be ignored.

From the application side, the current NCM811 mass production is mainly concentrated in cylindrical batteries, and the mass production progress of consumer batteries is faster than that of power batteries. The technical application of NCM811 is difficult, and it is necessary to overcome safety problems. Suppliers have higher threshold requirements and more complex long-term certification procedures.

From the material end point of view, NCM811 material production process is difficult. There are not many material enterprises that can mature mass production. Among them, Dangsheng Technology currently produces a high-nickel production line with an annual output of 4,000 tons, which can produce NCM811, NCA, or Production of NCM622, Jiangsu Dangsheng Phase III project with an annual output of 18,000 tons of NCM811/NCA project is in progress.

Earlier, Shanshan Energy official micro-message showed that the company's Ningxia Shizuishan base ternary 622/811 turnkey project with an annual output of 7,200 tons of shared production line construction was smooth, the end of December 2017 trial production, March 2018 production.

At the annual meeting of senior workers held in early January, Shengxian She, general manager of Ningbo Rongbai Lithium Battery R&D Center, revealed that NCM811 has started mass production in the second half of 2016, and the output in December 2017 reached 500 tons/month. The latest plan is in the third quarter of 2018, the monthly production capacity of NCM811 reach 1,000 tons/month; in 2019, it will achieve 2000-3000 tons/month.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.