The first batch of power lithium batteries will be retired. It is expected that the overall scale of the market will reach 15.6 billion yuan in 2020!

Under the guidance and planning of the National Energy strategy, policies related to new energy vehicles have been centralized since 2014. With the continuous progress of power battery technology, the entire industrial chain has entered a period of rapid development. From 2013 to 2016, the annual sales of new energy vehicles increased dramatically from 17,600 to 507,000. Driven directly by the outbreak of demand for new energy vehicles, power battery shipments have also shown simultaneous and high growth since 2014.

The positive electrode materials of the power cell mainly include lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials. lithium iron phosphate batteries that are generally carried by new energy passenger cars have higher recycling properties, and 80 % of the cycle life can reach 2000-6000 times; Although the three-part material battery carried by the new energy passenger car has a higher energy density, its 80 % cycle life is only 800-2000 times. The influence of different application environments of lithium batteries, the average service life of lithium iron phosphate batteries is about 4-6 years, while the service life of ternary batteries is about 2-4 years; Therefore, the rapidly growing power cells since 2014 will welcome the first batch of decommissioning in 2018. On the other hand, the higher recovery value of consumer batteries are lithium cobalt acid batteries and ternary batteries. Combining the consumption structure and service life of lithium batteries of all types, we calculate that the scale of retirement of lithium batteries will increase rapidly in the next three years, reaching 60 GWh or more by 2020, and the composite growth rate from 2017 to 2020 will be 41.12 %.

According to the recycling value of lithium batteries in the three main types of material systems at present, lithium triplet materials, lithium iron phosphate and lithium cobalt acid, we have further estimated the market size of lithium battery recovery. At the same time, it should be considered that some scrap batteries and corner materials will be generated during the production process of lithium batteries, which is still one of the secondary sources of battery recovery. It is expected that with the upgrading of equipment and improvement of process technology, the ratio of scrap batteries and corner materials in the production process will be reduced. Combining the above sources of battery recycling, we expect the market for lithium battery recycling to grow rapidly in the next three years. By 2020, the market size is expected to exceed 15.6 billion yuan, and the composite growth rate from 2017 to 2020 will be 40.84 %.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.