On the Entry of Lithium Battery into the Price Performance Phase

With the promotion of electric vehicles and the development of related technologies, the three-part lithium battery (hereinafter referred to as "three-part battery") has become a trend. In the domestic market, passenger cars have been refitted with ternary batteries, and their production capacity has continued to grow. Lithium-iron phosphate batteries are gradually at a disadvantage due to relatively low energy density.

Today, subsidies for the "boots" landing in advance, driven by policy and market factors, some electric logistics vehicle companies abandoned the three-yuan battery reelection of lithium iron phosphate batteries. This phenomenon has caused the industry to pay more attention to the changes in the product pattern of the power battery market.

High power makes the triple battery a favorite.

The high energy density of the battery reflects the advanced nature of the technology, which means that the range of electric vehicles is longer. In order to seize the industrial development opportunities brought about by the wave of electromagnetism, the relevant policies introduced in China encourage high-specific energy batteries.

"Made in China 2025" clearly requires that China's power battery energy density should reach 300 watt/kg in 2020, 400 Wh/kg in 2025, and 500 Wh/kg in 2030. The former Minister of Science and Technology, Wan Gang, once stated that it is necessary to work hard to double the energy density of the power battery unit and reduce the manufacturing cost by 50 <UNK>, so that the unit battery energy reaches 300 Wh / kg or more, and the cost is reduced to 1 yuan / watt-hour. Before the Spring Festival this year, the four ministries and commissions issued the "Circular on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" to further encourage the development of high-energy batteries -- the exclusive electric passenger vehicles with a mileage of 100 ≤ R <UNK> 150 kilometers will no longer enjoy subsidies in 2018. The subsidy of 150 ≤ R <UNK> 250 kilometers was reduced and was split into two stages of subsidies. For models with a range of more than 300 kilometers, the subsidy did not fall.

The theoretical limit of the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate battery is 170Wh / kg, and the ternary battery is much higher than this value. The research direction of increasing energy density is almost always defined as ternary material by major battery enterprises. Under the guidance of the policy, car companies have also replaced the lithium iron phosphate batteries commonly used in new energy vehicles with ternary batteries. The most typical is BYD. Iron battery technology used to make it proud. E6 and Qin models have created sales miracles with lithium iron phosphate batteries. But the BYD song EV, which went on sale last year, no longer uses its own lithium iron phosphate battery, but is fitted with an outsourced ternary battery.

The industry has also ushered in an upsurge of investment in three-yuan lithium batteries. In the middle of last year, Guoxuan Gaoke invested 2 billion yuan in the 4GW ternary battery project in Qingdao, Shandong Province. At the end of last year, BYD released an investor relations activity log showing that it plans to expand a 10gw ternary battery plant in Qinghai in 2018. Events like this abound.

Soaring cobalt prices add to the cost pressure on ternary batteries

In the age of lithium iron phosphate, lithium carbonate has a greater impact on battery costs, and battery companies have been under pressure over the past period of time. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and it is expected that there will be some room for decline in the future. After the ternary material became the product trend, the price of cobalt metal rose at an amazing rate.

In 2015, the global supply of refined cobalt was about 102,000 tons and the demand was about 92,000 tons, and its price remained relatively balanced. In 2016, the price of cobalt began to rise steadily, but the speed was not fast, ranging from 100,000 to 150,000 yuan/ton. In 2017, cobalt prices have been rising all the way, and this year it is more likely to be as high as 800,000 yuan/ton.

In ternary materials, cobalt is an indispensable element whether it is NCM(nickel cobalt manganese) or NCA(nickel cobalt aluminum). At present, most battery companies use technical routes 523 or 622, in which cobalt accounts for 20 tons. Demand led to a sustained and rapid increase in cobalt prices due to multiple factors. In fact, with the growth of new energy car production and sales, the major futures markets are generally bullish on metal cobalt. An industry fund person told the China Automobile News that the scarcity of cobalt, tight supply and demand, oligopolistic control, the ease with which small varieties can be hyped in the futures market, and the current situation in Congo have all become factors that have continued to increase cobalt prices.

In early 2017, big fund companies such as Pala in Switzerland and Chaos Investment in Shanghai began sweeping the world, accounting for about 17 per cent of global production of 6,000 tons of cobalt, according to data. Westbeck Electric Metals Fund is also one of them. The fund raised US$ 250 million, and cobalt is the key trading variety.

Congo has two-thirds of the world's cobalt mines. In January, Congo amended its mining tax law to impose a double tax on cobalt, raise the patent tax on base metals from 2 to 3.5 per cent. Cobalt is a strategic metal, and the revised code will also impose a 5 per cent patent tax on strategic metals.

The auto companies realized that they need a lot of cobalt metal to meet battery production needs in the future and have stepped up their procurement efforts. According to foreign media reports, BMW will sign a 10-year supply contract for lithium and cobalt raw materials for electric car batteries. In addition, multinational car companies such as Toyota and Volkswagen have also joined the competition for raw materials, and cobalt has become a key target.

Cobalt is not only used in cars, mobile phones and other electronic products also require a lot of resources. According to Bloomberg, Apple is negotiating the first long-term purchase of cobalt directly from a miner, seeking supply contracts of thousands of tons a year for a period of five years or more. According to the latest news, Samsung Electronics related company Samsung property is negotiating a long-term cooperation agreement with a Congo mining company to purchase cobalt, following Apple joined the global cobalt battle.

Faced with this situation, domestic companies are not calm. Swiss mining giant Glencore has signed a big order for more than 50,000 tons of cobalt for battery production over the next three years, foreign media reported yesterday. This figure is about half of the global cobalt production last year, and it is one-third of the expected output of Glencore, the world's largest cobalt producer, from 2018 to 2020.

Market differentiation or regurgitation of lithium iron phosphate

In order to improve the mileage of the car and make the battery more reasonable in the layout of the vehicle, the direction of technological progress in the previous two years was to increase the battery energy density, resulting in a wide range of applications of ternary materials. However, the space for price reduction of ternary materials is limited. With the intensification of marketing promotion and competition, costs have become a headache for enterprises.

Zhangqingping, deputy general manager of Beiqi New Energy, said: "In the past two years, with the improvement of battery package development technology, lithium iron phosphate has also made progress in energy density, which can meet the current national technical threshold requirements. The price of lithium iron phosphate is relatively stable, and it has the characteristics of high safety. It is used more in electric logistics vehicles and small vehicles. The mainstream passenger car is still dominated by ternary batteries. "

The new subsidy policy requires that the energy density of power batteries should not be less than 115 Wh / kg. lithium iron phosphate is not difficult to meet this standard. "The energy density of lithium-iron phosphate batteries is basically enough to meet the subsidy requirement now," said Fangjianhua, partner and president of the New Energy Venture Capital Sub-fund of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund As the price of raw materials rises, the cost difference between them gradually emerges. "

For lithium iron phosphate batteries, positive materials account for only 20 to 30 inches of cost, while for ternary batteries, this ratio is about 40 inches. The increasing cobalt price has made the energy density advantage of the ternary battery "dim", and the safety of the lithium iron phosphate battery is higher than that of the ternary battery, and it also has a cost advantage from the full life cycle. Fangjianhua said: "The cycle of ternary batteries is about 1,000 times, and lithium iron phosphate batteries can easily reach 1,500 to 2,000 times. "

After 2020, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will formally withdraw, and market forces will play an important role. At that time, the market may diverge. Fangjianhua said: "Electric logistics vehicles and passenger vehicles below A0 are more sensitive to prices, and lithium iron phosphate batteries can meet their needs; Medium and high-end passenger cars pay more attention to performance, and ternary batteries have an advantage in this area. "

With the advent of the era of e-commerce, electric logistics vehicles have broad prospects. Not long ago, Jingdong announced that it would replace all its logistics vehicles with electric vehicles. In addition, there are a large number of electric vehicles that play a fundamental role in the transition. In the future, electric vehicles under A0 will also have greater market space. The two factors add up, and lithium-iron phosphate batteries may be heading back.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.