On the Future Value of Lithium Battery

In 2016, China sold more than 500,000 new energy vehicles, and its production and sales volume ranked first in the world for two consecutive years. The power lithium battery is one of the three core components of the new energy vehicle. It accounts for up to 40 % of the total vehicle cost, and it also directly determines the performance of the vehicle.

Since new energy vehicles require high requirements for power batteries, they must have specific properties such as high specific energy, high specific power, fast charging and deep discharge, and require low cost and long life, so lithium-ion batteries become the best choice.

Lithium battery industry still can excavate which investment bright spot?

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Positive materials are the key to the development of lithium batteries. "Create real results

Lithium battery industry still can excavate which investment bright spot?

Composition of lithium batteries

The core materials of lithium batteries include positive electrode materials, negative electrode materials, electrolytes, and diaphragm. Among the most important materials of positive materials, not only the quality is relatively large, but also the cost in the battery is relatively high(usually more than 30 %), and the technical threshold is also the highest; At the same time, because the cathode material is directly related to the battery capacity and safety performance, the performance and classification of lithium batteries usually depend on the cathode material when the performance of other materials is basically similar.

Lithium battery industry still can excavate which investment bright spot?

(1) Lithium cobalt acid is the first-generation commercialized lithium battery positive electrode material, and it is also the most mature positive electrode material developed. It is mostly used in 3C electronic products. However, in recent years, due to the high price, low security, limited power capacity, and the slow development of electronic products, there is a great possibility of being replaced;

(2) Lithium manganate has a cost advantage over lithium cobalt acid and is more secure. However, its specific capacity is still low, and it does not solve the defects of low cycle life;

(3) Lithium battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium nickel cobalt manganese acid used in new energy vehicles have developed rapidly. Compared with the first two lithium batteries, the capacity of lithium iron phosphate and lithium nickel cobalt manganese acid has been greatly improved, and the cycle life is longer and the safety performance is good.

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The ternary material will become the mainstream in the future

Most of the new energy vehicles we often see such as BYD new energy vehicles choose to use lithium iron phosphate batteries. This lithium battery has three major advantages: high stability, high safety, and high value for money, and mature mass production technology. It is the first choice for powered lithium batteries and has occupied a high market share in China.

At present, it is still the energy storage and life of power cell that restricts the development of new energy vehicles. At this point, the lithium nickel cobalt manganese acid ternary material shows its unique advantages of high energy density. Although the current three-element positive material is relatively expensive and the production process is not yet mature, the industry's concerns about its safety have not yet been lifted, but simply by improving the existing lithium iron phosphate battery will not meet the future people's requirements for the range of new energy vehicles. The problem can only be solved through the optimization and mass production of three-element cathode materials. Tesla, as we know, uses high-capacity Nickel-cobalt-manganese lithium ternary lithium battery. Therefore, the author believes that under the premise that the fuel cell can not solve the stability and safety problems, the three-element lithium battery will become the mainstream power cell in the future, and may even dominate the market.

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Investment Value Analysis of Lithium Battery Industry Chain

At present, the global lithium battery market is dominated by China, South Korea and Japan. Among them, Japan and South Korea started early in the lithium battery industry, and the positive material technology is relatively mature; While China has benefited from new energy car subsidies in recent years, the power lithium battery industry has developed rapidly, but it still lags behind Japan and South Korea in technology.

From 2005 to 2015, the global market for lithium batteries increased from US$ 5.6 billion to US$ 22.1 billion, and is expected to reach US$ 36.3 billion by 2020. Lithium battery power has become an important part of the lithium battery market.

Lithium battery industry still can excavate which investment bright spot?

The upper reaches of the lithium battery industry are mineral resources for the production of battery materials, including manganese, phosphorus, cobalt, nickel and other metal materials and graphite carbonized materials; The middle reaches is a positive electrode material and other battery materials and cores; The downstream is a variety of lithium battery products.

So where is the value of the investment we can tap into in the lithium battery industry? The author's analysis is as follows:

1, for the lithium battery industry, the price of raw materials must be the first factor that restricts the development of lithium batteries, and at present appears to be in short supply. However, due to the capital-intensive mineral development industry and the attributes of state-owned monopolies, it is not suitable for equity investment;

Due to the strong state support for lithium batteries, many listed companies and state-owned enterprises have flooded into the power lithium battery equipment field. It is true that many of these companies have mature production technologies and market experience. However, because the technical threshold of lithium batteries is not high and the cost of battery materials is too high, the gross profit rate of their products is low, and the net interest rate of most companies is even less than 8 %. Investment value is not high;

Battery materials, especially positive materials, are the key technologies for the development of lithium batteries. The development of lithium-ion batteries still has some technical bottleneck, especially the advantages of high capacitance and safety performance have not been fully brought into play. With the National subsidy policy to the new energy vehicle energy density and mileage put forward higher requirements, the original lithium iron phosphate batteries can no longer meet the market demand. Lithium battery manufacturers in China have begun to transform the research and development of energy density of the three positive materials, the future three material battery development space is great. Therefore, considering the analysis, the author believes that lithium battery materials, especially positive materials, are the most innovative and valuable areas in the industrial chain.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.