Can lithium-electric plate gold pit "law" be fulfilled?

With the Shanghai index correction, coupled with subsidies adjustment news, the lithium sector suffered a heavy setback recently. According to flush data, if you count from the high point of the lithium concept index on September 21, as of the close of November 27, the interval fell by 17.25 %. Dow's technology, Jianneng, Shanshan shares, Guoxuan Gaoke and other stocks all fell by more than 19 % in this range. The follow-up trend of lithium battery plate has become the focus of market attention.

lithium battery Concept Unit Collective Adjustment

After a wave of rising in the middle of the year, many lithium concept stocks such as Kennedy and Winnipeg are close to historical highs or record highs. However, from the perspective of historical highs so far, Winner Technology has adjusted more than 36 % since its historical high on September 12, and Dow Technology has adjusted more than 35 % since its historical high on September 14.

In addition, more than 30 % of the two stocks of Yiwei Li-Neng and Yahua Group have been withdrawn from their historical highs, and the withdrawal of many stocks such as Luoyang Moly and Tianqi Li-Yi-industry has also exceeded 20 %.

Historical data show that the depth adjustment of the lithium battery concept has a high probability of becoming a gold pit. Take the Li Feng industry as an example. From July of last year to February of this year, the adjustment situation was maintained, followed by continuous spikes, and the stock price quadrupled from the low of February. Prior to this, there were also adjustments in the Lithium industry from December 2015 to March 2016, and the stock price has doubled in more than two months since then. After an adjustment from June 2015 to September 2015, the company's share price nearly tripled in two or three months.

So, after the depth adjustment of the lithium battery plate, can the "rule" of the gold pit be fulfilled again?

Basically, it's for the good.

Despite the deep correction of the lithium battery plate, the agency is still optimistic about the long-term development trend of new energy vehicles. "The entire new energy vehicle sector has performed relatively well this year. Many stocks have increased significantly. Even some stocks have been valued somewhat higher, significantly exceeding the increase in performance. In addition to the impact of intermediate policy disturbances, there is a need for adjustment. A Shanghai fund manager believes that this phased adjustment will not change the industry's long term growth space.

Huajin Securities believes that under the double points policy, negative points companies will face greater pressure on points and compensation this year. The landing of this policy will inevitably increase the value of new energy points and promote the development of the new energy car industry.

According to the research report of Western Securities, the total number of new energy car markets in China will reach nearly 900,000 units in 2018, and the consumption of lithium ion batteries will be above 40 GWh, a year-on-year growth rate of about 30 %.

In response to the market's concern about subsidy receding, Guojin Securities Research Daily believes that the market's rumored subsidy receding version may be the worst case, but it is not necessarily the case. A number of car companies also told the media that even if subsidies make a large adjustment, the impact on leading companies may not be large. Policy changes will only eliminate a group of marginal enterprises that rely on subsidies for their livelihood, and high-quality enterprises can further expand their market share by raising technical standards.

In fact, a number of lithium-electric enterprises have recently announced the latest technology plans. Take Kennedy Energy as an example. On November 24th, Wotema, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wotema, said when attending the "Davos" forum of Lithium, that Wotema will pass the production formula, process, and structure optimization verification. At the same time, joint suppliers develop high-performance positive and negative poles and foil. The energy density of the battery monomer will be increased from 145 Wh / kg to 160 Wh / kg next year, while the capacity of the monomer core will also be increased from 6.5 Ah to 7.0 Ah. According to data, at present, Wotema's customers are mainly domestic first-line car companies such as China FAW, Dongfeng Automobile, Zhongtong Bus, Shanxi Dayun, Shanghai Shenlong, Xiamen Golden Brigade, and China Heavy Automobile Haowo.

New energy vehicles will become the main investment line in 2018?

Upgrades in manufacturing, including new energy vehicles, are expected to be the focus of investment next year, according to research reports from mainstream brokers.

Shen Wanhongyuan pointed out that manufacturing is not only the focus of policy catalysts, but also the direction of fundamental marginal improvement. "Manufacturing" and "innovation" will be the main lines in 2018. Shen Wanhongyuan believes that there are investment opportunities for new energy vehicles that combine innovation and industry prosperity.

Guotai Junan, from the perspective of the new industrial revolution, believes that new energy vehicles as "TMT in manufacturing" will become one of the main lines of investment next year.

Most of the industry and mainstream brokerage institutions believe that the future of the vehicle manufacturing represented by BYD, the power battery represented by Kennedy, and other new energy vehicle industry links will continue to grow. The trend of motorization is expected to create a new market for trillions of dimensions of space.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.