What is the industrial pattern of lithium battery anode materials?

The industrial structure of the anode material is stable and the leading position is stable.

Artificial graphite demand

The status of graphite anode materials is difficult to shake in the short term. In 2017, the negative electrode materials shipped 149,000 tons (including exports), including 10.4 tons of artificial graphite, 3.7 tons of natural graphite, and 0.8 tons of other negative electrode materials (lithium titanate, carbon-silicon composite materials, etc.).

Due to good negative electrode performance and excellent cost performance, artificial graphite and natural graphite account for 95% of total shipments of negative electrode materials, and it is difficult to move in the short term.

The proportion of artificial graphite will be further increased. In 2014-2017, the proportion of natural graphite decreased from 38% to 25%, while the proportion of artificial graphite increased from 56% to 70%. This is because artificial graphite has high cycle life, good rate performance, and good compatibility with electrolytes, so it is mostly used in power lithium batteries. Although natural graphite has a specific capacity slightly higher than artificial graphite, the rate performance is poor, and the first discharge efficiency is low. Lower, more for consumer lithium batteries.

Thanks to the rapid growth in demand for new energy vehicle power batteries, the proportion of artificial graphite in the shipment of anode materials will further increase in the next three years.

China and Japan lead the market for the global anode material market

China and Japan are the world's major producers and sellers, accounting for more than 95% of the world. Globally, anode materials are concentrated in China and Japan. China's advantage lies in enriching graphite resources. Japan's advantage lies in advanced technology.

The top four Chinese and Japanese companies, Shenzhen Beitray, Hitachi Chemical, Shanghai Shanshan, and Mitsubishi chemical production accounted for 67% of global production. The second echelon is also Japan's Mitsubishi Chemical, Japan Carbon and Jiangxi Ziwei Technology Co., Ltd.

China's negative electrode production accounts for more than 60% of world production. In 2015, the global negative electrode production was 110,800 tons, of which China shipped 72,800 tons, accounting for 65.7%.

Domestic leading position is stable and its advantages are significant

The leading position in the industry is stable and the advantages are obvious. In 2016, the domestic output of negative electrode materials was 118,000 tons, of which Betray accounted for 21%, Shanshan shares accounted for 19%, Jiangxi Zijing accounted for 15%, and CR3 reached 55%.

The output of artificial graphite anode materials is 79,000 tons, of which Jiangxi Zijing accounts for 22%, Shanshan shares account for 20%, Shenzhen Snow has 12%, and CR3 accounts for 54%. The output of natural graphite anode materials is 29,900 tons, and the proportion of Betray is as high as 55%, which exceeds the sum of other enterprises. Plus the second (Hunan Xingcheng, 14%) and the third (Jiangxi Zhengtuo, 9%), CR3 reached 78%.

The strong and strong, the advantage accumulation effect is significant. In the first half of 2017, the total output of domestic anode materials was 66,000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period last year compared with the market share in 2016, the top three Betray, Shanshan and Jiangxi Zijing increased by 1-3 percentage points, and CR3 increased by 7 percentage points.

It can be seen that the business growth rate of leading enterprises exceeds the industry average level, the market share is further concentrated to leading enterprises, and the effect of accumulation of advantages is more and more significant.

The upstream graphite is rich in resources and the cost has a natural advantage.

China's graphite reserves rank third in the world.

According to the "MineralCommoditySummaries2016" released by the National Geological Bureau in 2016, as of the end of 2015, the global proven reserves of natural graphite proved to be 230 million tons.

Turkey is the world's richest source of graphite resources, with proven reserves of 90 million tons, accounting for 39.1% of the global total; followed by Brazil with proven reserves of 72 million tons, accounting for 31.3% of the global total; China ranked third The proven reserves are 550 million tons, accounting for 23.9% of the global total.

The abundant graphite mineral resources make China's anode material enterprises occupy the natural low cost advantage.

China's graphite resources are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. According to the China Industrial Information Network, as of the end of 2015, the proven reserves of crystalline graphite in China were 45,297,300 tons, of which Heilongjiang was 2,155.98 million tons, accounting for 47%, and Inner Mongolia's reserves were 8,801,700 tons, accounting for 19%; cryptocrystalline graphite was proved. The basic reserves are 81.799 million tons, including 3,464,300 tons in Hunan and 1,603,600 tons in Shaanxi.

China is the world's largest producer and consumer of graphite.

China has formed six major graphite production and processing bases (Jinxi, Heilongjiang, Luobei, Heilongjiang, Pingdu, Inner Mongolia Xinghe, Hunan Yinzhou and Jilin Lanshi), which mainly produce and export low-end products. In 2015, the output of graphite was 860,000 tons (including about 660,000 tons of crystalline graphite), accounting for 67.7% of the world's production. The output of the six bases accounted for 86% of the country.

China is the world's largest exporter of graphite. Nearly one-third of China's graphite material production is exported, and about 80% of export products are low value-added products.

From 2000 to 2015, the cumulative export of graphite was 6.61 million tons, with an annual average of 413,000 tons, and the export volume accounted for 30.5% of the production. In 2015, the export volume was 251,000 tons, accounting for 79.0% of the world. Japan is the world's largest importer of graphite, accounting for more than 50% of the world's imports, of which more than 80% are imported from China. From 2000 to 2015, Japan imported 2.95 million tons of graphite from China, accounting for 44.6% of China's exports.

Layout leading customers, rapid expansion of production capacity

The battery industry is highly concentrated, and the echelon is clearly layered.

The installed capacity of the power battery industry in 2017 was 36.23GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%. In terms of market share, the first echelon Ningde era and BYD have great advantages and the second echelon is relatively fierce.

(1) The first echelon: In 2017, the market share of Ningde Times increased by 4 percentage points, surpassing BYD, ranking first; BYD's market share dropped by 11 percentage points, but still leading the third place, Watmar 9 percentage points.

(2) The second echelon: Market share of Waterma and Guoxuan Hi-Tech decreased; Bicke's battery market share increased by 2%, ranking second.

(3) The third echelon: Tianjin lishen's market share has increased compared with last year; Fueneng's market share has increased by 2%, ranking among the third echelon.

Actively deploying the leader and rapidly expanding production capacity

All the major anode materials companies have layouts in the first three echelons of the power battery industry. In particular, Shanshan, Beitui and Jiangxi Ziyan have not only cooperated with domestic battery leading enterprises, but also have been the mass production suppliers of international leaders such as Samsung, LG and Panasonic.

Rapid expansion of production capacity and oversupply of anode materials

The negative electrode material industry have lower technical barriers and relatively mature technology under the general expectation of the high power of the downstream power battery industry, major anode materials companies have invested in new capacity, and new companies have entered the negative electrode industry.

However, according to statistics, the total capacity of China's lithium battery anode materials in 2017 was as high as 370,000 tons, while the overall output was only 185,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of the anode material industry was only about 50%.

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