Is the new energy bus industry facing a reshuffle?

In 2016, the passenger car industry cheat subsidy storm triggered the industry rectification, 2017 can be said to be the new energy passenger car industry. Affected by the national policy of "30,000 kilometers", the cycle of subsidy collection for automobile enterprises has been prolonged and the cash flow pressure has been increased. This has affected the profitability of new energy bus enterprises to a large extent, accelerated the reshuffle of the new energy bus industry, to a certain extent will shake the local government to introduce and develop new energy bus power, new energy bus industry may have met the development bottleneck.

First, the new energy passenger car policy slope, the technical threshold continues to improve

According to the latest online subsidy scheme for new energy vehicles in 2018, the largest adjustment range of subsidies is still in the field of new energy passenger cars. Compared with 2017, both the slope of subsidies and the technical threshold of subsidies are significantly improved. It is worth mentioning that in terms of technology, it not only increases the gradation inspection of vehicle load capacity consumption per unit, but also clearly improves the energy density and fuel economy level requirements of power battery system.

Preliminary calculation, the new energy bus cycle subsidy fell sharply, will directly affect the profits of car companies, or will trigger a new round of adjustment of the new energy bus industry.

Two, competition upgrade, part of the new energy bus enterprises or face survival crisis

In response to the development needs of the country's strategic new industries, the number of domestic new energy bus enterprises has increased to about 75, changing the stable situation of "one pass three dragons" and forming a new pattern of "two passes (yutong, zhongtong)+ byd + fukuda + CRRC era".

From the domestic new energy passenger car insurance data, in the first 11 months of 2017, only yutong passenger car sales exceeded the scale of 10000, 2000 and less than 10000 have byd, zhongtong, foton, CRRC era and guangtong 5; The number of enterprises with sales volume between 200 and 2000 is about 25, and the number of bus enterprises with less than 200 is 45. This means that, benefiting from the innovation and replacement of the electrified power system, about 50 domestic enterprises may be new entrants or small and medium-sized enterprises revitalizing the stock. These enterprises have common characteristics: they shoulder the regional new energy automobile industry development and industry drive, new energy bus promotion and application and other important tasks, but the product technology precipitation is insufficient, it is difficult to launch global or even national market competition.

At present, the new energy passenger car market competition is increasingly fierce, some passenger car enterprises are struggling, facing the "30 thousand kilometers" subsidy funds to slow the pressure of time, facing the burden of enterprise losses, but also facing the enterprise product technology upgrade helpless. It may be said that the birth of the car is easy, not easy to survive!

Third, policy-driven, regional new energy bus promotion and application efforts will not decrease

Since 2015, domestic provinces and cities have successively formulated a series of new energy vehicle promotion policies, with new energy bus as the main body. At present, the domestic economy is developed, the financial foundation is good, the automobile industry foundation is strong, "ten cities thousand vehicles" demonstration promotion city, the new energy bus sales volume is still among the best, such as guangdong, henan, Beijing, hunan and other cities.

1, the city bus electric process continues to accelerate, the replacement rate of new energy buses will be up to 100%

National and local policy to continue to promote the development of new energy vehicles, part of the government regional "saving energy and reducing consumption much starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning", the new energy automobile much starker choices-and graver consequences-in development planning ", "climate change plan", the new energy automobile application and release the way forward, such as "foreign announcement" of guangdong province and guangzhou city bus electric propulsion, is expected in 2020 the provincial standard 75%, 100% guangzhou bus electrification.

It can be judged that the rigid demand of domestic bus groups for new energy buses still exists. In 2018, the penetration rate of electric buses in various cities will be further improved. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy buses in 2018 May still reach the scale of 90,000.

2. New energy buses have been deeply penetrated and promoted from first-tier cities to second-tier and third-tier cities

After the promotion and application of new energy bus for three consecutive years, new energy bus has been promoted and popularized by guangdong, henan, Beijing and other first - and second-tier cities and some third-tier cities, among which guangdong leads in penetration and penetration rate.

From January to November 2017, nearly 10,000 new energy buses have been promoted and applied in guangdong, and the sales volume of products in henan, jiangsu, hunan, Beijing, shandong and other cities has reached 2000-4000. With reference to the situation that the sales volume of each province doubled in December 2016, it is expected to reach the scale level of 4000-8000.

In addition, the provinces of new energy vehicles gradually to the city and county promotion and application, penetration efforts to further increase.

Iv. Analysis of the impact of policy retreat on regional new energy bus development

1. Policy pressure, high technical requirements, substantial reduction of subsidies, prompting local protection barriers to break the ice

In 2015, the state has clearly proposed supporting policies to improve the development of the new energy vehicle industry, and has repeatedly mentioned "breaking down local protection barriers and removing restrictions on driving and purchasing". In 2017, the national development and reform commission issued the "interim rules for the implementation of the fair competition review system", which provides an important guide for policy-making bodies to conduct fair competition review, provides support for the healthy and orderly development of new energy vehicles, and further puts pressure on local "monopolies".

Before 2017, the high subsidies in the new energy bus industry were more incentives for local protection, in order to include the huge amount of state subsidies and local fiscal and tax subsidies into local enterprises. Some local governments have set up exclusive "mini-catalogues" to encourage new energy bus companies to "invest for the market" and buy local components.

However, in the 2018 online subsidy plan, the subsidy standard will be reduced by 40% across the board, resulting in a decline in the gross profit margin of main engine manufacturers, a reduction in profitability, and a difficult situation for local enterprises relying on subsidies.

New energy bus policy slope technical threshold continue to enhance the new energy bus industry shuffle?

Take byd K9 pure electric bus as an example. Under the old subsidy policy, this model will receive a maximum subsidy of 1 million yuan (central and local governments), while the new subsidy policy will only receive a maximum subsidy of 270,000 yuan in 2018. If the sales price of a single vehicle remains unchanged, excluding the "30,000 km limit + approval system", the gross profit of a single vehicle will decrease by 730,000 yuan, and the gross profit rate of sales will drop from 44.8% to less than 20%, and the overall product profit of the enterprise will significantly decline.

Even if the domestic new energy automobile industry chain can effectively achieve cost reduction, it is also difficult to effectively improve product profits. Assuming that a certain new energy bus is more than 10 meters, the battery power is about 200kw/h, the power battery energy density does not increase, the battery per KWH decreases by 200 ~ 300 yuan, the electric motor control decreases by 4000 ~ 5000 yuan, the battery cost may be reduced by 40,000 ~ 60,000 yuan, the profit of the same type of vehicle than in 2017 declined by more than 100,000 yuan.

In addition, the extension of the state subsidy distribution cycle reduces the operating cash flow of enterprises and pushes up the financial cost of enterprises, which is undoubtedly a blow to the bus enterprises that rely on subsidies for survival and low gross profit.

Therefore, the steep decline in subsidies will help new energy passenger cars return to normal market competition, which may be a disaster for the new energy passenger car sales in the hundreds of car enterprises. High technology threshold and low subsidy standard may be important factors to break down local protection barriers.

2. Invigorate resources and promote joint venture and cooperation among vehicle enterprises

2018 subsidies TuiPo will speed up passenger car market development, new energy bus enterprises, product sales or will further widen the gap between leading bus companies will make full use of the sales scale, the supply chain system and brand advantages to the second line and the following small factory profit under pressure, place protection or tilt to passenger cars with product price advantage to the leading enterprises, which will promote the automobile enterprise joint venture cooperation.

If the region has a certain automobile industry foundation or the government is eager to develop the automobile industry. Then, the regional government may promote the development of the automobile industry through the way of matchmaking and "joint venture, cooperative investment and market exchange", that is, the introduction of a leading bus enterprise to revitalize the second line and small factories by means of joint venture. This not only meets the needs of the government to develop the automobile industry, but also does not need to worry too much about the survival of enterprises, or even the tax outflow. At present, domestic already had many areas to had adopted such operation mode.

3. The financial pressure is too high, and some regions are likely to cancel local subsidies

(1) the amount of fiscal and tax subsidies for new energy buses is on the high side

Since 2016, China's new energy vehicles have received about 70 billion yuan in state subsidies, including 50 billion yuan for passenger cars, accounting for more than 70 percent of the total, which also brings heavy financial and tax burden to regional governments in promoting the development of new energy vehicles. Take a province in southern China as an example. Under normal circumstances, the annual promotion volume of energy buses is about 4,000. According to the new subsidies in 2017 and 2018, the subsidies for regional buses will assume fiscal subsidies of 600 million and 360 million respectively. This does not include the subsidies for new energy passenger cars. Obviously, the promotion of new energy vehicles is a heavy burden for local governments.

(2) second-line cars and small factories may be in urgent need of government "blood transfusion" support

With the implementation of the new subsidy standard in 2018, to a large extent, the competition and profit of new energy bus enterprises will rise to the industrial chain, and the LCC full life cycle cost management may be a good recipe for winning the market. This not only requires the vehicle enterprises to have a strong supply chain supporting management ability, such as getting the battery supply of large battery enterprises, parts highly homemade, these may reduce product costs. However, for second-line cars and small factories, this is too difficult to do.

Therefore, if the automobile industry foundation in the region is not strong, the new energy bus enterprises do not have strong product technology precipitation, the state subsidies or it is difficult to support corporate profits, it is difficult to promote the coordinated development of the upstream and downstream industry chain in the region, it is likely to cause a domino effect, and even need the government's ability to regenerate blood.

Considering the advantages and disadvantages, these regional governments are more likely to choose to cut their own throats and curb the outflow of fiscal and tax funds, thus canceling local fiscal subsidies.

4. Take the lead in the recovery and utilization of power batteries by bus enterprises

The introduction and application of new energy buses in China started earlier, and the number of new energy buses in most provinces exceeded 5000. After nearly eight years of development, the new energy bus power battery will soon face elimination and recycling.

Although China has introduced policies and laws and regulations on the recycling and cascade utilization of power batteries for a series of new energy vehicles, few regional governments have really pushed forward, let alone leading bus manufacturers, second-tier main engine manufacturers or small factories paying out of their own pockets to do so.

At present, new energy bus lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese acid and other power battery recycling has been in the string, but lithium iron phosphate battery technology recycling line is difficult to make money. This requires the government to integrate enterprise resources for joint promotion. If led or promoted by a complete vehicle enterprise, it has a stronger voice and bargaining power, or it may be able to realize the normal and orderly recycling and utilization of power batteries more smoothly.

On the one hand, the regional government and enterprise to develop new energy bus industrial battery recycling business, on the other hand, the regional government can give two ways through the curve line forms a certain financial subsidies or small factory, indirectly support the development of new energy bus, also can achieve new energy bus power battery recycling took the lead.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.