New trends in all-solid-state lithium batteries for battery companies

In 2018, the foreign-investment ratio of new energy vehicles will be lifted. Domestic new energy vehicles will face more direct competition with foreign companies, which will also exert tremendous strategic pressure on power battery companies closely related to new energy vehicles. It is also understood that by 2020, China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be fully withdrawn. How to compete with international giants in the "unprotected" and non-subsidized state will be a major challenge for domestic power battery companies.

Industry leader profit shrinks

The data shows that in 2017, due to the rapid increase in power battery capacity and the decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, the price of power battery systems in Ningde era dropped sharply, causing the company's gross profit margin to fall, from 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 2017. 1.41 yuan / Wh, the cumulative decline of 38.26%. In terms of net profit after deduction, the growth from 2015 to 2016 was 2.96 billion yuan in 2016, but fell to 2.47 billion yuan in 2017, down about 16% year-on-year.

According to BYD's 2017 annual performance report, affected by the new energy subsidy policy changes, BYD's performance fell 19.5% year-on-year, and gross profit margin decreased by 3.93% compared with 2016. The negative impact of the subsidy for new energy vehicles to BYD's earnings is more obvious in the first three months of 2018. According to statistics, the net profit range is only 0.5 billion to 150 million yuan, and the estimated net profit will fall sharply by 75.2 % to 91.8%.

Battery China Network learned that in addition to Ningde era, BYD and other power battery industry leaders have experienced significant declines in performance and shrinking profits, Xiongyi shares, polyfluoride, star source materials, Anda Technology, Tianci Materials, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Bikang A number of industrial chain companies such as shares also experienced a slowdown in performance growth and a decline in net profit. It can be seen that the overall efficiency of the power battery industry is not optimistic, and 2018 will be a year of intense competition and extremely difficult changes.

Three-way battery manufacturing costs have risen sharply

At present, the mainstream battery for new energy passenger cars assembled above A0 level is a ternary battery, that is, a lithium battery with lithium nickel cobalt manganese oxide or lithium cobalt aluminum aluminate as a positive electrode material, in which cobalt metal plays an important role as a key material, the role. In China, cobalt is a very scarce resource. China's proven cobalt reserves account for only a little more than 1% of the global total and most rely on imports.

Congo (Golden) has nearly 70% of the world's cobalt mines. According to overseas media reports, in January 2018, the Congolese government revised the mining tax law to impose a double tax on cobalt mines, of which the patent tax on base metals will increase from 2% to 3.5%. And as global power battery companies are targeting ternary materials, cobalt prices continue to rise, causing the cost of ternary batteries to rise sharply. According to statistics, the price of cobalt will exceed 800,000 yuan/ton in 2018.

Power battery energy density technology needs to break through

As we all know, the higher the energy density of the power battery, the longer the cruising range of the car is, the higher the energy density of the power battery, the higher the technical level. Wan Gang, former Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, pointed out that it is necessary to double the energy density of the power battery unit, reduce the battery cost by half, and make the unit battery energy reach 300Wh/kg or more, and the cost will be reduced to less than one yuan/Wh.

According to China's "Technology Roadmap for Energy Saving and New Energy Vehicles", it is clearly required that by 2020 China's power battery should reach a monomer energy density of 300Wh/kg, the system energy density will reach 260Wh/kg; in 2025, the monomer energy density will reach 400Wh/kg. The system energy density should reach 350Wh/kg; by 2030, the monomer energy density will reach 500Wh/kg. It shows that the breakthrough of power battery technology has a long way to go.

Technical breakthrough of all solid lithium battery

From the perspective of technological development potential, ternary lithium-ion batteries have great difficulties in improving energy density. Industry authorities believe that the theoretical increase in energy density of all-solid lithium batteries is broadly feasible. Experts said that in addition to the advantages of traditional lithium batteries, all solid-state lithium batteries have great improvements in terms of safety and energy density, and their energy density can reach 300~400Wh/kg.

In addition to its high safety and high energy density, all-solid-state lithium batteries have characteristics not found in other conventional batteries. According to reports, the film-type all-solid metal lithium battery can reach 45,000 cycles, its maximum operating temperature is expected to reach 300 ° C or even higher, its electrochemical window is expected to reach 5V, it also has the advantages of flexibility, recycling and so on. .

Authoritative experts in the industry said, “Energy density should be further improved. It is now necessary to consider all-solid-state lithium batteries. The long-term development of the electric vehicle industry requires technical reserves, and all-solid-state lithium batteries are expected to become the leading technology route for the next generation of power batteries for vehicles.” China Net has learned that many companies such as BYD and Zhongtian Technology have already laid out their layout in the field of all-solid lithium batteries.

Technology leadership is the fundamental guarantee that companies can stand in the market. Faced with the new energy subsidies, the rising cost of batteries, and the new situation of “naked war” with foreign companies, whether we can intensify innovation and continuously break through the existing technology bottleneck will be a top priority for domestic power battery companies. Whether the all-solid-state lithium battery can bring about a new generation of power battery technology revolution, whether the power battery enterprise can achieve technological leapfrog development, we will wait and see.

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