The rapid development of new energy vehicle supporting industry and power batteries are facing serious overcapacity.

Planned capacity has far exceeded expectations, and the risk of overcapacity is accumulating.

All kinds of capital rushed into the field of new energy vehicles, quickly forming a large number of capacities.

New energy vehicle supporting industries are developing rapidly, and power batteries are facing serious overcapacity.

The new energy vehicle industry is one of the strategic emerging industries that China focuses on, and is also listed in the top ten key development fields in the made in China 2025. Accelerating the development of new energy vehicle industry can not only alleviate the pressure of energy and environmental protection, foster new economic growth points, but also promote the transformation of China from a traditional car power to a modern car power.

Thanks to the strong support of national policies, all kinds of domestic investors have entered the field of new energy vehicle manufacturing, promoting the rapid development of new energy vehicle industry. According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in 2017 were 79 40,000 and 7770,000 vehicles, the year-on-year growth was 53.8 percent and 53.3 percent, respectively, up from 63.3 and 60.7 times respectively in 2012. It has ranked first in global production and sales for three consecutive years, accounting for more than half of the global new energy vehicle market.

However, accompanied by the rapid development of the new energy vehicle industry, the risk of overcapacity in the industry is accumulating. At present, we should take active measures to defuse the risk of overcapacity in the new energy vehicle market.

[Be alert to the increasing risks of overcapacity]

First, planned capacity has far exceeded expectations, and the risk of overcapacity is accumulating.

In June 2012, the development plan for the energy conservation and new energy vehicle industry (2012-2020) issued by the state council set a development target of 2 million pure electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by 2020. However, according to China's circulation association, according to data released at the end of June from 2015 to 2017, the domestic has landed more than 200 new energy vehicle project, related investment of 1 trillion yuan of above, new energy vehicles of all kinds of car companies have publicly capacity planning and more than 20 million vehicles, is the energy saving and new energy vehicles industry development planning (2012-2020), "10 times higher than the set goals. The above data show that the domestic new energy vehicle market overcapacity has emerged.

Second, various types of capital rushed into the field of new energy vehicles, quickly forming a large number of capacity.

In recent years, with the strong support of the country to the new energy automobile industry, all kinds of capital poured into the field of new energy automobile, setting off a national "car making movement". On the one hand, traditional car companies have announced geometric growth plans for production and sales. For example, BAIC new energy plans to achieve annual production and sales of 500,000 vehicles by 2020, and BYD plans to invest 15 billion yuan to achieve production capacity of 600,000 vehicles by 2020. On the other hand, a number of emerging Internet companies have crossed into the new energy vehicle market, such as LETV automobile, NEXTEV automobile, JIAYI automobile, etc., in which JD, TENCENT and other Internet giants have invested.

In addition, some other industry's leading enterprises also began to dabble in the new energy automobile field. For example, GREE group, WULIANGYE group, CITIC group and HANERGY group have invested in the new energy automobile industry through various means. In particular, many investment subjects without experience in car manufacturing have entered the market one after another, which quickly formed a large amount of capacity in a short period and laid a hidden danger for overcapacity.

Third, the supporting industry of new energy vehicles is developing rapidly, and power batteries are facing serious overcapacity.

The rapid growth of domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles has driven the development of related supporting industries, especially the development of power battery industry is extremely rapid. Data shows that China's current power battery shipments accounted for more than 70 percent of the global market share. From 2014 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of domestic power battery industry was as high as 368%, 324% and 78. In 2016, investment in the power battery sector exceeded 100 billion yuan.

According to the calculation, the current form of capacity if released in full, can form the huge production capacity of 170 GWH/year, about more than seven times the actual demand of the market at present, can satisfy the electric passenger cars of annual output of 5 million cars and 500000 electric bus aggregate demand, and in accordance with the relevant plan, by 2025 in China is short of such a large market demand.

[Three causes of excess risk]

First, industrial policies such as excessive subsidies increase the risk of overcapacity.

Since the new century, the state has issued a series of policies to support the development of new energy vehicles, including subsidies for enterprises and consumers, technical research and development support, and tax incentives. In addition to the central subsidies, many local governments provide matching subsidies for new energy vehicles in a 1:1 ratio. The total subsidies of the two levels of governments are as high as 60,000 ~ 100,000 yuan, and some small electric cars have become zero or even negative costs. Lured by the high subsidies, a large number of enterprises do not overproduce in accordance with the actual market demand, and some enterprises even cheat on subsidies, thus sowing the hidden danger of overcapacity.

Consultancy according to Wilson issued the 2016 China's new energy automobile market report, excluding government subsidies, the domestic independent brand new energy vehicles average market clinch a deal the price is 2 times that of the joint venture brands, namely the independent brand car price advantage mainly rely on government subsidies to maintain, as future subsidies TUIPO system or even cancel completely, in the face of the joint venture brands powerful technology and market competitive advantage, a large number of domestic rely on stimulus and established car companies will face cleaning market, China's new energy automobile market will produce a crisis of serious excess capacity.

Second, the single GDP achievement view and local protectionism have increased the risk of overcapacity.

At present, the high risk of overcapacity in new energy vehicles is related to local governments' one-sided pursuit of GDP achievements. As one of the emerging industries, new energy automobile industry has the characteristics of large output value, high profit and strong driving force. Once the new project capacity is formed, it will greatly boost local economic growth. For example, after the completion of the project of a certain automobile group's new energy passenger vehicles in a certain province, it is estimated that the annual output value will be as high as 60 billion yuan, accounting for 1 percent of the province's GDP, based on the annual output of 600,000 vehicles. 5%.

Driven by interests, local governments are enthusiastic about the development of new energy vehicles. At present, most of the 15 enterprises that have obtained the new energy vehicle production qualification have the local government behind them. This practice of blindly following the new energy vehicle related projects regardless of local development conditions will lay hidden dangers for future overcapacity.

In addition, local protectionism has also hindered the market process of new energy vehicles, affected the survival of the fittest in the market, prevented advantageous enterprises and efficient production capacity from entering the market, and allowed vulnerable enterprises and zombie enterprises to survive, and intensified the risk of low-end overcapacity in the industry.

Moreover, the industry entry threshold is low also easy to form a large number of low-end excess capacity.

Compared with the extremely high entry barriers of the traditional automobile manufacturing industry, the entry threshold of the new energy automobile industry is relatively low, mainly focusing on the battery and other core components. It is estimated that the break-even point of conventional fuel vehicles is 2 million units, while the break-even point of electric vehicles is only 100,000 to 200,000 units. It is the relatively low industry entry threshold and broad market space that makes new energy vehicles easy to become the capital chase "sweet pastry".

At present, some do not have new energy automobile research and development, production and manufacturing capacity and lack of experience in building cars enterprises, using new energy automotive industry with low barriers to entry, take investment means such as holding company, a joint venture, cut into the supply chain into the new energy automobile manufacturing field, easy to form a large number of low-end excess capacity in the short term, to the healthy development of new energy automobile industry in our country.

First, improve relevant policies and regulations to promote the healthy and orderly development of the industry.

In order to continue to optimize and improve relevant laws and regulations, a new version of medium - and long-term development strategic plan for the new energy automobile industry should be formulated according to the latest development and changes of the industry and the market, so as to further clarify the strategies and objectives of industrial development at all stages of development and avoid overcapacity caused by blind development.

We will improve the government procurement system for new energy vehicles, strengthen the priority and compulsory procurement of new energy vehicles by government departments at all levels, issue detailed rules for procurement, and promote orderly development of government procurement activities through technical standard control and proportional control, so as to effectively reduce overcapacity in new energy vehicles.

We should promote the combination of "government, industry, education, research and application", establish partnership in the new energy vehicle industry, and encourage all market players to work together to develop the new energy vehicle industry, so as to overcome the problems of low-level redundant construction and overcapacity caused by government and enterprise information asymmetry, lagging industrial policies, and low efficiency in policy implementation.

Second, optimize government subsidies to support the way to strengthen industry supervision and management.

Further raise the technical threshold for new energy vehicle products to enter the catalog, and dynamically adjust the relevant products to enter the catalog; We should change the current "GSP" system of granting subsidies to "reward the best and strengthen the strong" and improve the efficiency of financial subsidies.

In order to prevent excessive subsidies, it is suggested that local governments should change the direction of subsidies from encouraging purchase to supporting use, increase the service life and other requirements for use links, introducing preferential policies such as parking fee reduction and expressway toll-free, and further increase subsidies and support for charging infrastructure.

Learn from foreign experience, the implementation of "car discount refund" for the new policy. It is suggested that government departments should cooperate with relevant industry associations to supervise the "subsidy fraud". Meanwhile, anonymous reporting mechanism and reward and punishment methods should be established to realize social supervision through the Internet and media.

Third, change the evaluation criteria for local government performance andspecial local protectionism.

It is necessary to change the single concept of evaluating the performance of GDP and establish diversified evaluation criteria of local government performance, so as to curb the investment impulse of local government. The central government will formulate unified standards and directory of new energy vehicles, abolish local directory, and mandate that new energy vehicles entering the directory enjoy equal treatment in government procurement, market access and financial subsidies. We will strengthen the management of centralized procurement, and make the bidding process for new energy vehicles more open and transparent for governments, state-owned enterprises, public transportation and other entities, so as to prevent local car companies from taking favorable measures.

Fourthly, strengthen the promotion and publicity to cultivate and develop the consumer market.

We will strengthen demonstration and promotion and guide consumption. We will improve the quantity and quality of new energy vehicles and create a favorable market environment for the healthy development of new energy vehicles. At the same time, strengthen the guidance of consumption, strengthen the cooperation between the government and enterprises, and jointly strengthen the publicity of consumers from the concept of low-carbon travel.

The related infrastructure construction should be strengthened from the two aspects of "software" and "hardware". The "software" includes the introduction of infrastructure construction plans, and the "hardware" includes the construction of supporting facilities such as charging piles, charging stations and after-sales service stations.

We will accelerate the development of a consumer market. It will focus on the market process of new energy vehicles, constantly innovating business models, strive to open up both domestic and international markets, support China's excess capacity to go global, and accelerate the cultivation of well-known new energy vehicle brands. In terms of business model, it explores and promotes electric vehicle or battery rental service, vehicle or fixed charging pile sharing service, and time-sharing lease.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.