Fuel cell vehicle commercialization exploration and market opportunity analysis

The 2018 China automotive BBS 4-26 officially opens. The theme of BBS is new era, new trend and new strategy. The BBS host is shi jianhua, deputy secretary general of China association of automobile industry and secretary general of BBS organizing committee. Lin qi, chairman of Shanghai remolding energy technology co., LTD., delivered the keynote speech "exploration of commercialization and market opportunities of fuel cell vehicles" on BBS sub-section "development bottlenecks and solutions of new energy vehicles in the post-subsidy era". The following is a summary of the conference's live shorthand:

Lin qi: hello everyone, although time is limited, as fuel cell vehicles in today's all links are different from the previous I think it is after more than 10 years of development of relatively mature battery car industry. Today, I would like to introduce myself. I am Lin qi from reshape technology. Today, my topic is the commercialization exploration and market opportunity of fuel cell vehicle.

It is well known that fuel cell system is a set of power generation system, is through hydrogen and oxygen to produce electrochemical reaction, discharge is water. It has three characteristics: zero emission, high energy density, high volume specific power density and high quality specific power density; Long life.

Let's take a look at what's happened in the last year globally and particularly in China, in the fuel cell industry. In fact, in the past nearly 20 years, fuel cell technology research and development has been in the stage of exploration, whether North America, Europe or Japan and South Korea, in fact, has not given up the research and development of fuel cell.

In 2005, Toyota launched the first commercial fuel cell vehicle, which gave a big boost to the industry. From 2015 to last year, the industry actually changed a lot. In the last year alone, the global capital market invested and acquired more than 10 billion dollars in the fuel cell industry, which may not be a particularly large number compared with the traditional automobile industry, but it is a very large number for the fuel cell industry. More to the point that the scale of the investment of more than 10 billion mergers and acquisitions, China's capital of more than 9 billion, in the capital market, the fuel cell industry actually got the capital market, especially the attention of China's capital market, more and more industrial capital, including financial investment, attention to the industry of listed companies, including like Xiong Tao shares of listed companies in China, dayang motor, finance, zhongtong, superior vosges shares (sound), there is investment in the industry, including domestic investment outside the territory. More famously, dayang electric has invested in bard power systems, a leader in Canada's 37-year-old fuel-cell industry, becoming its single largest shareholder.

Now, having said that capital market piece, it's actually a signal, let's look at the market piece. Worldwide, 6,000 fuel-cell passenger cars were sold last year, a tiny number. Toyota's sales, along with hyundai's and others, account for 1,500 fuel-cell vehicles sold worldwide, and 1,272 in China. In fact, the number of 1,272 sets is also a very small number, but as we all know, in 2016, the sales of fuel cell vehicles in the Chinese market should not exceed 30 sets as far as I know, so this is a very big growth. What has just been described is a microcosm of the fuel cell vehicle industry in the whole world in 2017, namely the capital market and vehicle sales.

In fact, there are more than 9 billion investment and mergers and acquisitions in China. What is the situation of the Chinese market and the Chinese industry? In fact, starting from 2016, it has been proposed in the technology roadmap of energy conservation and new energy vehicles that 100 sandwich stations will be built in the Chinese market in 2020, with 50 million vehicles, 10 million in 2030 and 1 million in sales of fuel cells in jiaqing.

At the same time in 2017 years later, in 2016 the national level with such a program, in September 2017, Shanghai took the lead from the local government level has released plans for the development of the fuel cell vehicles, including three stages: the first stage is until 2020, the output value of the industrial chain can produce in Shanghai 15 billion, filling stations built 5-10, built two passenger vehicle demonstration area, the scale of running more than 3000 vehicles, the output value reached 100 billion in 2025, passenger car sales to 20000 units, sales in special vehicle can do 10000 units. From 2026 to 2030, the output value of the whole industrial chain will exceed 300 billion yuan, which was released by Shanghai in September 2017. As of January 2018, a growing number of local governments in China, including suzhou, xi 'an, guangzhou, wuhan and foshan, have issued plans for the development of hydrogen fuel cells. Suzhou, for example, wants to have 800 fuel-cell commercial vehicles in use at the government and public transport levels by 2020, with an output of $10 billion. By 2025, suzhou hopes to have 50 billion yuan worth of fuel cell vehicles serving the government or public transportation. Foshan also released plans two weeks ago to build 10 refueling stations in two years from 2018 to 2019, capable of serving 2,000 fuel-cell buses in five districts of foshan. From this point of view, in fact, fuel cells have been adopted as a national strategy at the national level, and the cooperation and response of local governments are becoming more and more active.

Mentioned vehicle sales we are inseparable from the hydrogen mail, a total of more than 300 hydrogen filling stations worldwide, mostly in Japan and South Korea, Europe and North America, South America is only one, this number just heard the Korean auto industry association President of gold, and South Korea actually is also a corresponding planning, the planning should not calculate the inside, in the 118 - seat is this number has been built by 2017.

What is China like? By 2015, China should have only three refueling stations nationwide, one in Beijing, one in Shanghai and one in zhengzhou. Is blue in the diagram has been built in operation, this happened in 2017, already has 13 hydrogenation station was put into operation, are respectively in Shanghai, changshu, nantong rugao, Shanghai added two, including zhongshan, foshan, places such as chengdu, shiyan, yunfu, under construction already has 20, believe that figure by 2019 to 100.

Therefore, with cars and stations, in general, fuel cell vehicles in the global scope, including in China, are an increasingly good trend. Both in terms of vehicles and refueling stations, they have received a lot of attention from the national and local governments as well as the capital level.

Next, I would like to briefly introduce remolding technology, a startup company that has been engaged in this field for nearly three years, mainly focusing on the engineering services of fuel cell vehicles and the development of fuel cell products. The production base of fuel cell system was officially put into production in July 2017, with an annual output of 5,000 units and an expansion capacity of 20,000 units. In 2017, we and dongfeng tezhuan launched 500 fuel-cell vehicles in the Chinese market, 500 in Shanghai, 30 in guangdong and 20 in hubei. In particular, the 500 fuel-cell logistics vehicles in Shanghai have become a demonstration operation of the largest single 500 commercial vehicle in the world. These cars are being used by e-commerce and express delivery companies. We choose to enter the market of fuel cell commercialization from logistics vehicles for several reasons. Second, for refueling stations, their operation routes are relatively simple and fixed, so they are called fixed points and fixed lines. Therefore, the demand for the layout of refueling stations is relatively small. Third, the promotion of fuel cells in urban bus and logistics distribution is of certain significance. Fourth, through the promotion of commercial vehicle market, hydrogen infrastructure can be driven to pave the way for the future passenger vehicle market.

We think and say that different from overseas, the layout of fuel cell vehicles globally starts from passenger cars, whether Toyota or Honda, or hyundai, or Mercedes, are all passenger cars, so in the Chinese market we choose to open the road from commercial vehicles, where is the challenge? I think the biggest challenge is on the durability, we all know that in bus operation or logistics car running, in fact is there is a big challenge to life, so far we have done on bench experiment test of fuel cell system has more than 2500 hours, at the time of 2500 hours we made a test, the attenuation in 1. 45%. We expect the system to decay no more than 10% at 12,000 hours, about 8. 1%. At the same time, we have 12 fuel cell logistics vehicles to do the durability test of conventional roads, the total has exceeded 150,000 kilometers, and the current attenuation is less than 1%. So based on our road durability tests, we expect the overall life to be over 400,000 kilometers, and the system will not decay by more than 10 percent, about 7. 8%. Although the sample size of these two tests is not large enough, I think we are very confident that the current remade system can basically meet the application of commercial vehicles.

So the thinking about the car of the future must be electrification, and I think there is a global consensus. Is the electrification system for a same electric platform for fuel cell system, I think there are more advantages is the fuel cell system for vehicle load is not sensitive to it than the quality of the power and volume power is relatively high, its fuel filling time is very short, around 3 to 5 minutes will be able to put the fuel supply. In this way, its range and weight will be relatively longer and heavier. Therefore, we think that the advantages of fuel cell are more suitable for heavy-duty and medium-heavy commercial vehicle applications.

Based on some thoughts on this we think in China's current electric business and logistics industry fast development today, especially in the large and super large cities have a greater demand for logistics industry under the premise, and the environment of the city also has a higher request under the premise of fuel cell vehicle logistics is a very good to fill the new energy vehicles in the long life, high load the blank in the field of application. Therefore, we also made an analysis. In the current logistics industry, ABC is divided into three lines, and under 200 kilometers is the advantage field of energy storage battery. In the area of feeder line, which is the distribution point to the business outlets, it is more suitable for the use of fuel cell vehicles. For the longer distances, the longer range and the higher loads between cities, we also think that fuel cell vehicles have the advantage. Why not? This is because of the current cost constraints on high-power fuel cells.

Therefore, we have found corresponding customers in the demonstration operation project of 500 fuel cell vehicles in Shanghai, and we have been doing the corresponding trial on the whole vehicle. Like what we see in the image above jingdong, jingdong currently using fuel cell vehicle logistics is number one in jingdong Asia warehouse and then to Beijing industrial company has a logistics warehouse center, and back again to the jingdong warehouse number one in Asia, a day like this fixed route they demand is 2-3 times, a single operating mileage is 128 km, so that the fuel cell car can meet their application condition. As you can see, jd is now using more and more vehicles in this app. After nearly three months of trial, they have tried the whole car. And you can see in this diagram that the basic path is the set point, the path that is repeated every day. So when you have the same path day after day like this, you can actually build a refueling station in this area and meet the needs of about 200 fuel-cell vehicles.

Another customer is like shentong. The single mileage of shentong is about 30km, so it runs 5-6 times a day, which can satisfy their application very much. Once every three days, the hydrogen can satisfy their needs, and their routes are relatively fixed.

I won't go into details. In a word, more and more logistics customers like shentong, ikea, jingdong and yunda are willing to use fuel cell vehicles in our demonstration operation in Shanghai. Secondly, they can go to cities, and secondly, they can meet the needs of long endurance and high load.

From just thinking to the real in the customer's hands, according to the relevant data to apply and we more practice, more let we have the confidence in the field of commercial vehicles, fuel cell will be able to really bring deliver value to the user, so we are planning a series of products, we call Calvin series products applied to the fuel cell car commercial vehicle in this area. Now we start production batch Calvin three 32 kw, in June this year we start mass production of 46 kw fuel cell system is called Calvin four, in the first quarter of next year we Calvin for medium and heavy commercial vehicles 74 kw fuel cell system will achieve batch production, that is to say in reshaping technology will we have a series of fuel cell system for commercial vehicle field.

We also have corresponding plans. We think the application of fuel cell system in the commercial vehicle field is more critical for two factors: first, the product durability is improved; second, the cost is reduced. Because you know now is to rely on subsidies policy driven market, we must consider subsidies TuiPo or even no, how do we survive, so we also do the planning, from 2018 to 2025, in this time we are in a certain number of market, the cost can be decreased to 80%, product durability can be done by now 12000 hours 25000 hours, I want to realize these two key indicators, fuel cell system in the commercial vehicle can be real long-term sustainable development.

So are we spending in 2017, 500 vehicles, I think in 2020 before the number there will be a very big growth, in order to face more commercial demonstration application, as well as a greater test, we first is investment is 30 million this year in Shanghai and foshan two places set up a professional after-sales service centre in fuel cell power system oriented, this is in order to safeguard in these two areas of the batch of the commercialization of fuel cell car demonstration run, at the same time also want to explore how to establish a satisfied with the standard of this kind of application service system. Then we also invested 1 this year. 700 million RMB has set up our own fuel cell r&d and validation center in Shanghai, and 20 laboratories will be set up and put into use in the first half of 2019, in order to fully verify our fuel cell products and meet the greater market demand in the future. Finally, in June of this year, we will launch a 46kw fuel cell system for medium sized commercial vehicles.

Having said all this, the more suitable field for fuel cell vehicles is a trend in the future of fuel cells. We can also see that we have more challenges in such a pre-market situation. From our perspective, we divide the challenges into three categories:

First, standard classes. As mentioned above, one of the core values of fuel cell vehicles is long battery life. Long battery life means that you need to bring more hydrogen with you. Therefore, I think the hydrogen storage system, a standard gas of 70Mpa, is in urgent need of breakthrough. In the field of logistics, for the end users, they are more concerned about the operation cost, so we should deduct the details and cost in the self-storage and transportation of hydrogen to develop the technology. And fuel cell vehicle standards need to be improved.

Second, resource class. The utilization of fuel cell vehicles is inseparable from the investment and operation of refueling stations. Currently in filling stations in the examination and approval and have great pressure on land, although see we now have 13 station has been put into operation, there are 20 station, under construction in the future there will be more stand, in fact from the examination and approval in this block as well as the land category is still has a lot of need to clear and optimization. Second, independent development of parts, we also mentioned to fell by 80% in 2025, the cost of cost reduction strategy there's actually a key strategy is how to realize the independent development of key parts of the fuel cell system and the localization, this is a critical path of cost reduction, this is also need to have a supply chain, parts and components manufacturers to support. Third, policy-oriented market pressure. As we all know, it is a subsidy-driven market now. In the absence of subsidies or the decline of subsidies, this pressure must be borne and there must be a solution.

Third, cognitive class. One is the excessive interpretation of hydrogen safety. In fact, I think many governments and enterprises have doubts about the safety of hydrogen, whether they are doing fuel cell propaganda or communicating with each other. The second is the social science of fuel cell technology. Because of the name of fuel cell, they call it fuel cell. In fact, it is different from energy storage battery. The third is the diversification of global technology routes. In fact, at present, no matter it is Toyota or Honda, etc., because there is not enough market, it is not competitive in fact, and the technology route is not very clear, so I think there are 1-2 very clear technical routes to be determined in the future.

These are the three areas where we see the biggest challenges in terms of commercializing and commercializing fuel cell technology. Based on the three appropriate area we actually have more to get government level and industry from all walks of life support, in this context we also got the attention of government and the society more, we are in this year's March 26 in guangdong yunfu founded China power battery industry innovation alliance consists of a new branch that the fuel cell branch, the branch is to cooperative enterprise, government and various resources to confront the challenges of the fuel cell development accordingly.

This chapter, we brought together like hydrogen fuel cell system, electric shocks and components, bottles and system, the vehicle enterprises, research institutes and universities, testing certification bodies, equipment manufacturing, filling station equipment, filling stations operating, vehicle operations, product promotion, government departments, director of the unit is reshaping technology, is director unit of tongji university, Shanghai fuel cell commercialization promotion center, the secretariat is located in the remodeling of science and technology, we also hope that through this chapter, gather strength to promote the development of fuel cell. The chapter will focus on the development and implementation of fuel cell industry development planning standards. Key generic technology public relations and fuel cell industry services, and finally to promote industrial cooperation and development. The work is also to face more and more challenges in the promotion and development of fuel cell vehicles. We also hope to take this opportunity to sincerely invite more counterparts in the automotive field to pay attention to and join this chapter, so that we can jointly promote the development of fuel cell vehicles in China and the world.

Time is limited, so I quickly finished my report. I'd like to end with a commercial promotion of video.

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