Development status and trend of power battery

The following is a speech by Dr. Xiao Chengwei, the expert of the 18th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation and the 863 Program Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicles Major Specialist Group:

I am very grateful to invite you to give a brief introduction to the situation of China's power battery today. Because I have already said this part of the content many times, I have done a little bit of content increase in it, and I will give you an introduction here.

Three pieces of content, one is an overview of the key development of electric vehicles, and another is the development status of battery technology, and there is a battery power market's own judgment, the development of China's auto industry faces such challenges. Director Xu also spoke in it. In fact, there are only two one is the impact on the environment, that is to say, such as emissions from nitrogen oxides, etc. One more requirement is energy security.

This time, Director Xu also said that China’s oil imports, including oil production, that is, 200 million tons of domestic imports, the amount of imports is gradually increasing, and the degree of dependence on foreign countries is constantly increasing. The Institute predicts 2030. It is more than 70%. Then there is another government. Only the Chinese government's average fuel consumption value for passenger car companies is becoming more and more strict, this can be seen, this is to follow this level, such a request, is a good promotion of the development of energy-saving new energy vehicles.

The Chinese government is from the 11th Five-Year Plan until the present 13th Five-Year Plan. From the layout of such a research and development system, for the energy-saving new energy vehicles, the three vertical and three horizontal technical systems have been maintained.

The results of R&D have also been demonstrated and promoted. From 2009 to now, this is the second phase. A large-scale demonstration and promotion work has been carried out on energy-saving new energy vehicles. The second phase is the second phase of this demonstration and promotion work. From 2013, from 2013 to 2015, there were a total of 39 cities and urban agglomerations, and 88 cities participated in such demonstrations. The total number of demonstration vehicles was more than 300,000 according to the plans submitted by various provinces and cities.

This is the number of such demonstrations in 2014. In the cities with more than one thousand vehicles, I have conducted another on-site survey of some cities in the past two days, such as Beijing, Shanghai, including Nanjing, etc. The total number of demonstrations and promotion has exceeded 10,000.

The statistics on the output of energy-saving new energy vehicles can also be seen, especially since 2014, there has been an explosion of such growth, especially in this year, on the basis of 2014, there is still a turn The situation of double growth. From the point of view of the number of promotion, I think today is more than 200,000 vehicles. Now, there is no problem. The whole demonstration promotion is from 2009 to the end of this year, and the whole may exceed 300,000. Then look at the promotion of such products, that is, in the passenger car and the special car that is the passenger car is still dominated by such automotive products as micro-pure electric and medium-high speed.

In other words, in urbanization, especially in the suburbs of the suburbs, I think it should be a low-speed car upgraded product, in fact, there are some car products in which to do an application, now give it back to the field of miniature pure electric vehicles.

Another one is the private, medium and high-speed such pure electric vehicles, there is also a relatively large demand, and another one is in the logistics vehicle, I think from the application situation this year, it is still relatively small, I want to be next year There may be a larger increase in such an increase. In the commercial vehicle sector, it is in the field of bus, plug-in hybrid bus and fast charging pure electric car, which are the two main applications.

Then take a look at its key components, especially the battery, which is in the hybrid plug-in, pure electric, including the fuel cell, the battery is such a key component of its core, this is the right Battery It will have some different technical indicators, you can make such a comparison.

That is in fact, there are some types of such batteries, there will be some applications, including lead-acid batteries, including super capacitors, including lithium-ion batteries, and then look at it a trend, actually for lead-acid batteries The most used in the country should be the low-speed car field. In such a model with start-stop function, the amount of lead-acid battery application is also very large. The nickel-crystalline battery is still in the Toyota Hybrid. According to my understanding, Toyota will increase the promotion of lithium-ion batteries in hybrid electric vehicles in the future.

Let's take a look at the lithium-ion battery, which is used in lithium-ion batteries, hybrid plug-in hybrid and pure electric.

On this basis, various countries have strong support for power batteries, and some corresponding national plans have been formulated, including South Korea, including Japan, including the United States, including Germany, the basic research, the recycling of materials to batteries, etc. Then, from the perspective of the whole industry chain, support for this corresponding research and development and industrialization work, then China is currently implementing two plans, or planning, one is led by the Ministry of Science and Technology, the electric motor of the 12th Five-Year One such plan of the major automobile special project, another one is led by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the planning of new energy vehicles from 2015 to 2020, these two plans have a lot of support for the corresponding battery research and development content. The Ministry of Science and Technology supported the battery through the 963,873 support project.

For this energy-saving new energy vehicle, the State Council issued this plan to support the battery through innovative projects. At the time of the 13th Five-Year Plan, the country made an adjustment to the entire scientific research system. Now it is called the special research and development project of the new energy vehicle, which is equivalent to the project supported by 973, 863. This is some projects of the Ministry of Science and Technology. A project like the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission has made an integration to make such layouts and plans for the research and development of new energy vehicles. That is here, still use this three vertical and three horizontal layout, in the three vertical one, one is plug-in type, one is plug-in one and then has a fuel cell, and then there is a pure electric , three of them.

He combines basic research here, in energy, in information, in materials science, from basic research, and then has several platforms, including an international cooperation platform for external cooperation, including such a demonstration and other such platforms have made such a combination. In the battery, there are six big directions involved, one is the basic research just mentioned, and the other is high energy density. One of the contents, there is such a high power density, and then there is a new system battery such a piece of content, and another one is the test evaluation, the indicator is that from the application point of view, it is still hoped that the battery can do three Every kilogram of watt-hours, carry out some assessments of loading applications in the car.

Another one is that the content of the research on the limit of lithium-ion batteries, I hope to achieve 400 watt-hours per kilogram, is the setting of such indicators.

Then look at the three five-year plan, a trend in battery development, actually from the perspective of the overall trend, or toward a trend of increasing energy density, in fact, with the vehicle to the battery Such a request is a match. From the perspective of safety, lithium iron phosphate is currently the safest, and the number of applications in China is also the largest. There is such a battery, there is a batch application.

Now that everyone is paying attention to this one, it is still in the ternary. I think that whether it is from security, or from its circulation, from its cost, I think it still needs a lot of research work.

From the development trend, from the perspective of the cathode material, basically these three categories, is a layered, a spinel, an olivine structure, the olivine structure is mainly based on lithium iron phosphate basically, it is still dominated by conventional spinel. This is a focus of research, including a focus on industrialization, which is in type 33, 523, including 62811, including higher nickel content. This piece, I think this is the current focus of everyone's research and development and industrialization, that is, there are currently batch applications should be in the 333 type, that in this 62811 and nickel 5, such a high nickel material, I think now everyone It is also doing industrialization, but this is the next step, which I personally think is a focus of application and industrialization.

The anode material is also in three categories, one is carbon material, the other is alloy, and then there is a metal oxide. The alloy is now the focus of research and development, that is, silicon carbon as a research and development focus, graphite. Class materials are now very mature products.

That is to do such a combination in front of the power battery to see such a trend, the leftmost piece, I think inside, is lithium iron phosphate, in the domestic as an industrialized, now more successful such a product There are also some batch applications for mixing and graphite materials, and one is supercapacitor. Now there are also batch applications, which are the types of such products that are currently in use.

Now I mention this piece again, I hope that the battery can achieve 300 watt-hours per kilogram, and it can realize batch application. I think it should be said before, that is, it is based on high-nickel materials and graphite. Class materials to match, especially with silicon carbon as a focus of attention, to match these two types together, and it should be combined with these, such as thin, modified diaphragm, diaphragm coating It can do 300 watt-hours per kilogram, at least now from the laboratory, is to make some samples, the battery can reach such an indicator, I think this is 300 watt-hours per kilogram, a mainstream technology adopted by various companies The route, I personally think so.

The next step is to focus on the new system, lithium sulphur or lithium air, so we can also include these two.

Let’s take a look at the main progress of domestic batteries. The negative electrode is mainly made of graphite. The positive electrode materials are of three major types. One is a combination of ternary materials and negative lithium manganese, and the other is a high-nickel ternary material. With such a combination of these, develop this energy and energy-sturdy battery.

Then there is the concept of hybrid power, graphite as a negative electrode material, a battery to do this, and then a high-power battery, there is also a batch application in the new energy battery. The types that were just combined in the previous section were to match the types of materials per kilogram at 300 watt hours, and also made some batteries. One is the 1865, and the other is that the energy is higher, 3.5 amps and 1865. From the experimental data, it can basically meet the requirements of the vehicle.

In the case of high nickel, one developed, the energy density is now two hundred watt-hours per kilogram, and the safety can also meet the requirements of the national standard. From this perspective, it is three hundred watt-hours per kilogram. This goal has done some very good pre-accumulation, that is, for example, we can do 240, or 250, such a level, starting from 200, made a good accumulation. That's the development of some technology for every kilogram of three hundred watt hours. This is a combination of negative lithium layer lithium manganate and carbon, and the energy density is close to 300 watts per kilogram. Including the ternary with high nickel mentioned above, it is also a trend, and also a technical route. I personally tend to use the high-nickel ternary to make a match, and make a match with silicon-carbon to do three hundred watt-hours per kilogram such a battery.

Look at the trend of such a market. For lithium-ion batteries, it is in electric vehicles, and in energy storage including electric vehicles, this is its main application area, which is here, including soft packs, including 1865 such batteries have such applications in them, including such batteries in aluminum alloy casings.

From the world, this battery has also made a large investment, and now the total investment exceeds 10 billion US dollars, then its production capacity is more than 50G watt-hours, that is, 50 billion watt-hours, and formed globally. There are three clustered regions, one is Germany, one is America, the other is East Asia, East Asia is mainly based on China, Japan and Korea, and the future is also a base for power battery industrialization. It has formed a very complete industrial chain in China. From battery to application to recycling, etc., are included.

Then there are four places where the comparison is concentrated. One is in Beijing and Tianjin, one in the Central Plains, one in the Yangtze River Delta, and one in the Pearl River Delta. In this way, the whole production capacity is now about 20 billion watt-hours, and the investment is over a level of 10 billion yuan. This is the statistics of such a capacity of a mainstream domestic enterprise. Now, by 2015, its total production capacity is more than 20 billion, close to the level of 20 billion watt-hours. This is a public opinion capacity. In fact, this year, from the perspective of sales, it is still in a situation where demand exceeds supply. I think there are still some shortcomings in this area that are not solved now. Now the capacity is basically 40% of the capacity of public opinion. On this basis, it is possible to achieve such an actual capacity of 8 billion watt hours, or a little more.

The front is a relatively large capacity, such as aluminum alloy shells, including flexible packaging batteries, as well as the 1865 very standard battery, and now in the domestic is also a field where everyone is investing hot, then this is Some domestic enterprises with such large investment and capacity are 18650. The 18650 can be used in, for example, micro-pure electric, including some plug-in passenger cars, or you can do it inside. A batch application, so from this point of view, many domestic enterprises are also doing 1865, because it is standardized, including equipment is also standardized, the entire process can also be standardized, so this one It will be faster. From this perspective, many companies will make a relatively large investment and expansion in 1865, and do some corresponding applications.

At the same time, like Samsung, like LG Chem, like Sony, Panasonic is also expanding, targeting the market for electric vehicles.

The forecast for this year's approximate battery should be at the level of 11 billion watt-hours. Its output value will probably be at the level of 20 billion to 30 billion at the current price. For the application vehicle, it is probably for 20 The market for 10,000 cars, I have introduced so much, thank you.

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