Photovoltaic policy detonated the market, but peak season has not yet come.

Future market is mainly in the distributed photovoltaic. Leading projects in the future will be less and less. The price will continue to decline. When there is no leader project, manufacturer sales all the time, the natural price parity on the Internet.

Released on April 25, is the national energy administration of scale management on perfecting the construction of photovoltaic power generation "opinion" and "distributed photovoltaic power generation project management method" two documents to the deadline for advice. And on April 24, in the national energy bureau news conference, new energy and renewable energy division, deputy director of the Chuangjun Li released rein photovoltaic development scale of multiple signals.

Among them, promote the photovoltaic technology progress, to reduce the cost, reduce subsidies dependence is still the main developing direction. But at the same time, the reporter understands from the relevant manufacturers, some manufacturers have begun to 2018 in 630 to grab equipment goods, hope to be able to enjoy the electricity prices in 2017.

April 25, Thai new energy technology co., LTD., Tangshan sea area director Jianhai Liu said when accepting a reporter to interview, 630 robbed last year during the peak season, component production capacity is not enough, this year's major component factory have been expanding production. But the loading force, the main or leader project is larger." If all started construction, component production capacity digests no problem. But if the leader took, the indicator card cannot build on the land or other conditions, it must have excess capacity components today."

630 "hook"

Recently, the reporter noted that a photovoltaic components manufacturers mentioned in your circle of friends for many times, "630 is coming, each big manufacturer almost full capacity, need to take the goods."

, vice general manager, crystal secco energy households with toysun on April 25, tells a reporter, 630 have no goods is normal, because some projects last year before 630 grid, but it is two months there will be a small pack.

On December 22, 2017, the national development and reform commission announced on the national development and reform commission notice of photovoltaic power generation project price policy in 2018, has been clear about the 2018 photovoltaic power station a feed-in tariff cut way: benchmarking lower after January 1, 2018 put into operation of photovoltaic power station a feed-in tariff, benchmarking Ⅰ, Ⅱ, Ⅲ resource area benchmarking feed-in tariff adjustment respectively per kilowatt hour 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan and 0.75 yuan (including tax);After January 1, 2018 put into operation, the "spontaneous for private use, Internet access, allowance," model of distributed photovoltaic power generation project, electrical measuring electricity subsidy standard by 0.05 yuan, the subsidy standard adjustment per kilowatt hour 0.37 yuan (including tax).Use "full access to the Internet" model of distributed photovoltaic projects according to the resources area where price of photovoltaic power station is carried out; Village-level photovoltaic power station (0.5 mw and below) benchmark price for poverty alleviation, households with distributed photovoltaic poverty alleviation project electricity subsidy standards remain the same.

2018 years ago, however, for the record and included in the previous fiscal year subsidies scale management of photovoltaic power station project, before June 30, 2018 has not been put into operation, implement benchmarking feed-in tariff in 2018.That is to say, the electricity price cut half a year's buffer.

Jianhai Liu introduces to the reporter, last year 630, all the components of the plant are all full production status, the owner or the total package party want to buy components, basic don't need to talk about terms of payment, one hundred percent of the loan to buy directly, all have no capacity to do so. So this year every large expansion has started to.

Photovoltaic industry Wang sj after analysis in 2017, a total of 14.4 GW centralized index of photovoltaic power station. Removal of 7.2 GW for centralized index of poverty alleviation, plus 2016 legacy has been built with no indicator plant, the existing more than 6 GW built without index of the project. Therefore, need to take 630 project 2018, approximately 8 gw.

Although demand growth from the point of component prices, is not yet big explosion.

According to PVInfoLink until April 25 Chinese photovoltaic market spot price data, component price in this week (4.19 4.25) rises from 7% to 8%, and there will still be 0-3% is expected next week.

In addition, the silicon material, after rose slightly, the situation of silicon material prices fell again, among them, the polysilicon cauliflower is expected to average fell to 1.6%.Before the outbreak of sharply visible, in the 630 season, although silicon material because of the high output and high capacity utilization of silicon factory is still slightly shortage, but failed to completely change the wafer depressed prices for a long time. Silicon, polycrystalline silicon slice of a 1.4% price increase, pure silicon prices stabilised.

The battery aspects, polycrystalline battery price stability, single crystal cell prices rose 1.5%, but domestic buying monocrystalline PERC cell demand is still not strong, prices fell another 0.6%.

According to analysis of PVInfoLink for a few weeks before the price movements, battery manufacturer already began brewing prices again, who had recently battery factories began to release the new quotations next month. But because the industry generally conservative view this year 630 volume, market anticipation of May and June is not too optimistic, the cells in the short term is difficult to a significant rise.

Toysun expects 630 during peak season, the price of photovoltaic modules or will better progressly. But the price of silicon to stabilise, with the former two years before the 630 compared to the price change or not.

Jianhai Liu also said that the component price should be in steady state, "the trend of parity on the Internet is a required component prices, but the current market demand, and will not drop too much, this time should keep smooth ups and downs."

Policy to be determined

In addition to leading project, this year is a big part of distributed photovoltaic installations. On April 24, according to the statistics of the national bureau of energy in the first quarter of this year, from the new power structure, photovoltaic power plant 1.97 million mw ground, fell by 64%;Distributed photovoltaic 7.685 million kilowatts, up 217% from a year earlier.

This year, at a news conference, Chuangjun Li put forward plans to arrange 10 million kw photovoltaic construction scale for distributed, is only half of 2017.And, according to the distributed power 7.685 million kilowatts of data in the first quarter, the remaining quantity only 2.315 million kilowatts.

A person engaged in household photovoltaic on April 25, told reporters that this is just a plan, no specific policy, "if only so little subsidies index, appeal is greatly reduced and could be done."

The toysun said, everyone has a different interpretation, but 10 gw basically still need to use in more than "spontaneous for private use, electricity on the Internet" mode grid distributed on the project of business, if according to the understanding of literal, the rest of the annual quota only 2 gw, there will be a steal.

"According to the latest edition of distributed photovoltaic power generation project management regulations (draft)", not more than 50 kw household photovoltaic projects can still indicators without limit, according to the need to install. But next year will be implemented, so either 630 or 1230 this year, because of the policy uncertainty, distributed will appear at the end of the pack."

Jianhai Liu also said, "a market distributed fire, but subsidies, how many are affected, if there is no financial institutions to follow, now almost a lot of dealers, agents haven't slow lead strength."

A inverter manufacturer, from Guangzhou on April 25, told reporters that "some of our a line of customers for April and may take the indicators not be fixed, dare not act rashly, also don't know the follow-up business subsidies can get. Now in investment and project that piece is a little nervous, hope clear policy as soon as possible."

According to the latest edition of the "measures for the management of distributed photovoltaic (draft)", distributed photovoltaic power generation project is not included in national photovoltaic scale management, by the provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the scale management. In addition, in November 2013, issued by the implementation of the "interim measures for distributed photovoltaic power generation project management" (new countries can [2013] 433) shall be repealed simultaneously, prior to the release of the measures for the administration has been completed for the record, and the period of validity of the completed grid, according to the original policy execution.

In response, Wang sj recently wrote an analysis that, because before the national record for a large number of distributed full Internet access, if they don't finish within the record, project is about to be abolished. In addition, her judgment, at the end of 2018 pv electricity prices will fall. So she thought, has been put on record before the full Internet distributed photovoltaic projects, must finish before the end of 2018, the project grid, to ensure that the project is not invalid, get the electricity prices in 2018, "in this condition, the distributed photovoltaic installations 20 gw doesn't matter!"

But Jianhai Liu thinks, although there is certain distributed loading opportunity increment, but estimated flat compared with last year or is higher than that of last year, not particularly crazy." In the Guangdong market, for example, company container should not be too many, mainly small and medium-sized enterprises of distributed photovoltaic industry and commerce, rural roof actual area is not very great. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang and other regions, however, because the door with the support of big financial institutions, in the market, including Shandong, Hebei and other places many financial institutions have to enter the market."

"Future market mainly in the distributed photovoltaic (pv), may be the future leader project will be less and less, the price will continue to decline. When there is no leader project, manufacturer sales all the time, nature price parity, surf the Internet."Jianhai Liu said.

In the press conference, Chuangjun Li, in the second half of this year will also start a new phase of photovoltaic application timely lead base construction. The "new issue" here, both in the remaining 1.5 million kw in 2017 did not extend leading indicators, including potential 8 million kw leading indicators in 2018.

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