Trend of Lithium, Ferric Phosphate and Lithium Manganese in New Energy Logistics Vehicle

On March 20, 2017, the four ministries and commissions issued the "Notice on the Clearing of New Energy Automobile Subsidy Funds for 2016", announcing new regulations on the conditions for non-individual users to apply for government subsidies for new energy vehicles. The discussion on "30,000 kilometers" has once again surfaced. There are even examples of the impact of this adjustment on enterprises. The author notes that the company issued a company notice saying that due to the above policies, the company adjusted its performance in 2016 and expected net profit to drop from 67-720 million yuan to about 200 million yuan, a decrease of 70.15 % -72.22 %.

Because the main customers of new energy logistics vehicles are not on individual users, Dayun Automobile is not an example. Most car companies will accept the test of 30,000 kilometers. As for the future choice of car companies, whether to lock in individual users or continue to promote new energy logistics vehicles through operators, etc., must provide consumers with 200,000 kilometers of quality protection for 5 years. Therefore, in the selection of battery suppliers, car companies have to work hard.

Trend of Battery Application in New Energy Logistics Vehicle from the Recommended Catalogue

Compared with new energy passenger vehicles and passenger cars, the industry's discussion on the safety of new energy logistics vehicles is not so fierce. It mainly focuses on battery energy density, cycle life, and cost. Under the pressure of reducing costs, both car companies and users are very sensitive to prices, and this need not be detailed; Compared with the new subsidy standards, we will find that the energy density has been used as a criterion for subsidies, while the circular life will affect the realization of 30,000 kilometers and affect the financial burden of enterprises during the 5 years of 200,000 kilometers. Comparing energy density, cycle life, and cost, we look at the trends of lithium ternary, lithium ferric phosphate, and lithium manganate in new energy logistics vehicles.

From the selection of special car batteries in several recommended catalogues this year, the proportion of ternary material batteries has been more than 50 %, accounting for the absolute advantage; Lithium iron phosphate fluctuates, the first two batches are small, and the third batch has a certain proportion; Lithium manganate has a share in this year's first list, but only one of this year's 2-3 batches has been selected for lithium manganate.

There must be a reason for the car companies to make this choice. What are the advantages and disadvantages of the three types of battery materials in terms of energy density, cycle life, and price?

1) In terms of system energy density, the author looked up the models in the three batches of recommended catalogues and found that the energy density of ternary material batteries can generally reach 105 Wh / kg or more, and some ternary composite materials can even reach 120 Wh / kg; Lithium iron phosphate is relatively low, and the system energy density is maintained at the level of 90 Wh / kg; The system energy density of lithium manganate is maintained at 100 Wh / kg.

From the above, the advantages and disadvantages of the energy density are: ternary material > lithium manganate > lithium iron phosphate.

2) In terms of cycle life, the theoretical useful life of ternary materials is about 2,000 times, and lithium iron phosphate is 1,500 to 2,000 times; Lithium manganate is the worst. From the theoretical value, the order of the cyclic life is: triplet material > lithium ferric phosphate > lithium manganate.

3) It is understood that in 2016, the average price of lithium manganate positive electrode materials was 55,000 yuan per ton, that of ternary positive electrode materials was 145,000 yuan per ton, and that lithium iron phosphate was 120,000 yuan per ton. The advantages and disadvantages in terms of price are: lithium manganate > lithium ferric phosphate > ternary lithium.

Summary: Although the price of ternary positive electrode materials is rising wildly, companies can effectively control battery costs through technical means. At the same time, ternary batteries have an advantage over lithium iron phosphate in energy density and cycle life, so the battery is used in logistics vehicles. Widespread; Lithium iron phosphate, as a more secure battery, is widely used in passenger cars, but the disadvantages of energy density and cycle life make it difficult to exceed the market share of ternary batteries in logistics vehicles; Domestic lithium manganate battery technology is still far from Japan and other countries. Some technical problems have yet to be broken. Therefore, lithium manganate has not become the mainstream in electric logistics vehicles.

Different types of batteries will have different performance, and the group ability of the company will further affect the battery quality. Therefore, what kind of battery company can get the olive branch of the car company?

Trend of Battery Application in New Energy Logistics Vehicle from the Recommended Catalogue

From the perspective of the battery companies selected for cooperation in the third batch of recommended catalogues, on the ternary batteries, the companies that chose to cooperate with Shanghai Deloneng, Bic Battery, and Yiwei Lithium can be the most; The car companies that selected lithium iron phosphate chose to cooperate with Wotema; Lithium ferromanate only Xingheng family, and only one car company chose to cooperate with it.

Car companies chose to cooperate with these battery companies for several reasons: 1) The author compared the battery directory company white list released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and found that most of the above battery companies are on the white list, and only a few have not yet entered the battery white list. This shows that although some car companies are trying to break through the restrictions of the White battery list, they are still more inclined to the white list for the sake of insurance.

2) When choosing a cooperative battery company, the car company attaches great importance to the performance ability of the company. On the one hand, the production capacity of these battery companies can meet the needs of the car company; The other is to ensure that the product can meet the current subsidy standards, such as the battery system quality energy density is not less than 90 Wh/kg, while the car company must provide energy storage devices such as power batteries, drive motors, and motor controllers for no less than 5 years or 200,000 km of quality assurance, In order to reduce the risk of after-sales service, the car enterprises choose to cooperate with battery enterprises with good quality assurance and after-sales service system.

Under the fierce market competition, battery companies will also carefully choose cooperative car companies, have the ability to recommend directories, market share of large car companies, in order to ensure the company's shipments.

From the above analysis, it can be seen that car companies and battery companies are the result of two-way choices and mutual benefit. In the future, this trend will be even more obvious and the market competition will be more intense.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.