Analyze the three factors of strong rebound of lithium battery concept

In the recent past, the stock index has continued to fluctuate at a low level. The Shanghai index fell by more than 2 % on September 23 under the adverse influence of the external market. However, the concept of lithium batteries has been revised. However, it has stepped out of the independent market that has been continuously pulled up-more fluoride, more than 9.65 % increase in the lithium industry, and 6.59 % increase in the lithium industry in Tianqi, and the turnover rate is abnormally high, and the investment continues to pay attention.

The reason for the continuous rise of the lithium battery plate is mainly the acceptance of new energy vehicles and the increase in the price of overseas lithium products. Today's counter-trend is related to the alleged cheating of charging piles and the public, according to the head of a Shanghai brokerage.

For the future of the industry, there may not be as much optimism as the country does not yet have the conditions for the popularity of charging piles and technical bottlenecks.

Three major factors to boost speculation

Since September 16, only the past six trading days have passed, but the stocks of the lithium battery concept plate have staged a strong rebound: polyfluoride has risen 54.4 %, the Lithium industry has risen 47.5 %, and Tianqi lithium industry has risen 31.7 %. Lithium is a silver-white metal element, soft in quality, used in atomic reactors, light alloys, and batteries. Like most other non-ferrous metals, the only listed companies that produced lithium products in A-shares were not favored by capital markets because of their limited industrial use in previous years.

However, in the past two years, because automotive fuel oil is not renewable or environmentally friendly, new energy vehicles have gradually become popular and gradually replaced. Data released recently by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology show that in August this year, the production of 24,500 new energy vehicles in China, a year-on-year increase of nearly four times; From January to August this year, a total of 123,500 new energy vehicles were produced, a threefold increase over the same period a year earlier. Production of new-energy vehicles has tripled in eight months, which means not only big developments in the auto industry, but also the development of related facilities such as charging piles, which are now in the offing.

At the same time, in addition to the production of pure electric vehicles such as Tesla and BYD, buses in Shanghai and Shenzhen have gradually been replaced by electric vehicles in the past two years.

After the increase in the production capacity of new energy vehicles, it was followed by an increase in the price of lithium products. In mid-September, the global lithium giant FMC announced that it would raise the price of its lithium products globally from October 1, including lithium carbonate, lithium chloride, and lithium hydroxide. 15 %. So far this year, the average domestic price of lithium carbonate has also risen by nearly 20 %. Analysts believe that in the lithium industry led by the demonstration effect of price increases, expected to stimulate the original supply and demand tight lithium carbonate market, it is expected that China's lithium battery capacity will enter an accelerated expansion period.

Under the influence of these two positive factors, the lithium battery concept plate has emerged from a continuous rebound since July after the first disaster, and the surge on September 23 has also been affected by two recent events: September 23. The executive meeting of the State Council clearly encourages the installation of electric charging piles in existing parking spaces, the deployment of accelerated electric vehicle charging infrastructure and urban parking lots, and the provision of public services to promote domestic demand and people's livelihood. In addition, the German Volkswagen exhaust scandal recently escalated, and Volkswagen admitted that the global emissions of fraudulent diesel vehicles may be as high as 11 million, which may be subject to huge fines by the U.S. government.

You need to be careful.

Recently, the concept of lithium battery stocks rose rapidly, inseparable from the continuous speculation of the capital.

Take Qifeng Lithium Industry as an example. On September 17, 18, 21, and 23, it was successively listed on the trading platform, and the trading seats in these four trading days were almost all business departments, and CITIC Securities Hangzhou Dongxin Road Securities Business Department, Guotai Junan Shanghai Fushan Road Securities Business Department, Guotai Junan Ningbo Rainbow North Road Securities Business Department and other famous hot money have appeared in the “Buy Five” seat and “Sell Five” seats in the trading dragon and tiger list.

Because of the hype of the venture capital, the turnover rate of the Li-Li industry in the past four trading days was 29.14 %, 25.55 %, 19.65 %, and 27.54 %, respectively. In four days, all tradable shares were replaced. Other stocks such as Duofuduo boarded the trading dragon list six times in September, and the turnover rate on September 22 was 25.42 %.

According to a Shanghai private equity person, fast-forward capital speculation has always been fast, less sustainable, investors need to follow up with caution. According to data, such as Guotai Junan Ningbo Rainbow North Road Securities and Sales Department, after buying the Lithium industry on September 18 and 21, it shipped large quantities on September 21 and 23 respectively.

So what is the future of lithium-ion batteries? Can the rising stock price be reflected in future earnings?

According to the data, lithium batteries are divided into lithium metal batteries and lithium ion batteries, of which lithium ion batteries are the mainstream. Compared with traditional batteries such as lead-acid batteries, lithium batteries have a larger capacity under the same volume, and the production, use, and recycling processes have a small environmental pollution, so they have been vigorously promoted in recent years. With the rise of new energy vehicles, the development momentum of power lithium batteries can not be underestimated. At present, the vast majority of new energy vehicles use lithium ion batteries as a power source. The cost of power lithium batteries is about 50 % of the cost of pure electric vehicles, and the development of power lithium batteries is extremely profitable. considerable.

Statistics show that in 2014, the demand for power lithium-ion batteries in China reached 2.8 GWh, and the demand for consumer lithium-ion batteries was about 30 GWh. The demand for energy storage lithium-ion batteries accounted for a relatively small market, totaling 33 GWh. Taking into account the demand for power cells and consumer batteries alone, the demand for lithium batteries will reach 54 GWh in 2018 and is expected to reach 72 GWh in 2020. The National Energy Administration has formulated a draft plan for the construction of electric vehicle charging infrastructure. It is proposed that by 2020, the number of charging and switching power stations in China should reach 12,000 and the number of charging piles should reach 4.5 million. The ratio of electric vehicles to charging facilities is close to the standard 1:1. Calculated by the average price of 20,000 yuan per charging pile and 3 million yuan per charging station, the direct market size of domestic new energy vehicle charging piles and charging stations in the next six years is expected to reach 124 billion yuan.

However, Zhangzhaohu, an industry expert in the automotive industry, questioned this. He said that the technical bottleneck of the charging pile itself has not yet broken through. In terms of time, if the charging pile is using DC, it still needs half an hour. If you use AC, it takes three to four hours at the earliest. In terms of space, most big cities are crowded. We don't have a private garage or dedicated parking space.

For the recent rise in concept stocks, Zhangzhaohu also believes that it is temporary. ` There have been some recent investments that have actually cooled down, 'he said.' We were a little bit overvalued in the electric car market and ancillary markets at the beginning, and it hasn't actually grown that fast if investors find that the cycle of recovery is too long. Or if the premium space is not that high, it will also cool down.

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