2018 lithium carbonate industry market demand analysis

A, lithium carbonate industry market demand analysis

By Power battery Pull, global demand for lithium carbonate will increase from 265000 tons in 2017 to 2020 tones in 400000, an increase of 135000 tons, 3 years because of the cost advantage, and progress faster, this part of the incremental demand is expected to be lithium production capacity to meet domestic salt lake brine, salt lake brine extracting lithium will usher in rapid development in our country.

Lithium industry chain downstream application is very extensive, including new energy automobile industry, biological medicine and new materials. The main application scenario is batteries, accounted for over 70% of the industry chain downstream areas. In recent years, with the new energy vehicles, biological medicine and new materials in the field of development, the rapid growth of lithium products.

Lithium products downstream demand is concentrated in the power battery, 3 c batteries and other industrial fields. The 2017 global lithium carbonate is about 265000 tons, the total demand is up almost 10% in 2016.Lithium carbonate expects 2020 global demand will reach 400000 tons, from 2017, an increase of 135000 tons, and in the next five years, the downstream demand of lithium carbonate will remain 16% average annual growth rate.

Two lithium carbonate in the field of downstream demand, Power lithium battery Application requirements and growth is the biggest, lithium products mainly breaking point. In 2017 our country The lithium battery Production of about 88.7 GWH, up 29.3% from a year earlier. According to the statistics, of which our country's power battery production accounted for, more than 50%, the highest growth, up 44% from a year earlier. Of our country The ternary lithium battery Accounted for about 44%, by 2020, a high density of ternary lithium batteries accounted will rise to 71%, the demand of lithium products will be structured to increase. Power lithium battery field of 2017, China's demand for lithium carbonate has amounted to 23000 tons, up 39.2% from 2016.Predicts 2020, demand of lithium carbonate in China will reach 64000 tons, the annual average growth rate is as high as 48%, as the product of the fastest growing application area.

3 c area is another important application scenario for the lithium products. The demand of lithium carbonate in the field of more than 46000 tons in 2017, is expected to demand to maintain steady growth in the field of 3 c 2020, and 52000 tons. Other industrial sector accounted for the biggest demand for lithium products, but more for industrial products, relatively low value-added, growth to maintain steady growth.

Lithium increased product prices to attract a large number of new entrants to participate in. As technology advances, recoverable resource variety, improve profitability, global new capacity over the next two years more, and fairly basic and demand growth. New capacity is given priority to with salt lake lithium, lithium products in China is expected to the end of 2018, China's new lithium salt lake of 3 ~ 40000 tons, 80000 tons by 2019.With capacity expansion to accelerate the supply side, predicts 2021 new domestic lithium production capacity of about 206500 tons, the world add about 409500 tons. Lithium and global new product demand is about 200000 tons, global lithium products supply and demand structure inversion. But because the capacity climbing slower, effectively increases production capacity increment is less than planning, global lithium carbonate structure will remain tight balance between supply and demand.

Q4 2017 domestic lithium battery rob prices significantly, installed capacity of up to 11.79 GWH  that month in December, up 43% from a year earlier, when 17 years of lithium battery inventory has back to normal level, with the new energy vehicles enter the peak season of consumption, battery maker is expected to gradually increase production, driving demand of lithium carbonate.

Second, the pattern of lithium carbonate in short supply support high prices

2018 q1 battery grade lithium carbonate average price 166000 Yuan/ton, 2018 q2 ending June 5 daily average price of 147000 Yuan/ton, and now at the stage of subsidies to adjust the transition period, rob effect obviously, lithium carbonate middle maintain high price trend.

Lithium market supply, subsidies and the new approach in the middle and lower reaches of compression requirements, leading to excess supply in the short term, is expected to continue falling slightly before mid-June.

Since 2018, battery grade lithium carbonate market price dropped significantly, in the past has risen from 175000 Yuan/ton, fell to the current 143000 Yuan/ton, or 22%.Data show that industrial lithium carbonate manufacturers price down to 135000 Yuan/ton, the actual clinch a deal in the 12.5-128000 Yuan/ton; Lithium hydroxide price down to 145000 Yuan/ton, the actual clinch a deal near 140000 Yuan/ton.

In the first quarter, middle material and battery link demand for upstream resources strength is insufficient, leading battery leading starts to recover faster, but two or three line of the lithium iron battery plant and its supporting materials especially insufficient utilization, battery plant as a whole is still in the digestion of finished goods and channel inventory last year.

In the first quarter of 2018, the domestic production and marketing of new energy vehicle terminal total beautiful, certificate yield increased 203% year-on-year basis. But overall, the materials and battery link demand for upstream resources strength is still insufficient. In the first quarter of 2018, the overall yield from the anode materials continue to slide. In obvious primarily lithium iron phosphate products, since the fourth quarter of 2017 after a sharp reduction 35.5%, 19.1% in the first quarter of this year to continue reduction, the cumulative reduction amplitude almost five.

At the same time of lithium carbonate prices callback, while the supply of lithium carbonate further speeding up, the next further depress the price of lithium carbonate formation.

Known so far, this year will be on stream of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide planning capacity is close to 100000 tons, and lithium carbonate production in the whole year of 2017 was only 80000 tons.

The expansion project of the second half of the lithium carbonate enterprise will gradually enter the delivery period. Jiangxi feng LiYe existing production capacity of 18500 tons, the planning capacity of 17500 tons, is expected to build capacity in the fourth quarter of 2018 on the; Sky LiYe existing production capacity of 27500 tons, the planning capacity of 24000 tons, is expected to lithium hydroxide product trial production at the end of 2018.

Shandong blessed in the fourth quarter of 2017, 20000 tons of new production projects are moderate, in 2018 after its launch dynamics continues to enlarge; Let huitong and reach LiYe new production line has been completed construction, has now entered the stage of commissioning and trial production, is expected in the second half of the year will enter the market, at the appointed time will add about 2000 tons per month supply of lithium carbonate.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.