The ternary dilemma in the development of lithium battery

If it is not accidental malicious made a fortune in the stock market, people Lao zhang may never know something called "cobalt". Although the recent Chinese stock market is not booming, but A few with the word "cobalt" stock is rising, A shares the first trading day of this year, it was also in cobalt under the drive of the concept of "rise" sound.

Also, on the spot market, the price of the cobalt has doubled since last year. In march of this year, the domestic main nonferrous metals spot market of cobalt price average of more than 600000 Yuan/ton A year ago, a ton of cobalt metal price is less than 300000 Yuan.

Cobalt dance with new energy vehicles

Cobalt, this kind of gray, and the humble metal prices soared all the way, for investors and speculators provides numerous profit opportunities.

In the 2018 Hurun rich list in the world, more than from the rich into the new energy industry, behind the cobalt and lithium.

In fact, as early as 2008 to 2016, the price of the cobalt has been relatively stable, because is too small, even once neglected.

So why appear explosive growth in the near future? Is not hard to find, the cobalt price soaring blowout and new energy automobile market has a very close and the pace of unification.

As an important strategic metals, cobalt is widely used in battery materials and alloy manufacturing, too The ternary lithium battery The necessary raw materials. And three Yuan The lithium battery is the use of new energy vehicles mainstream at present, there is no alternative.

Starting from the second half of 2016, as countries have given a lock-up fuel car schedule, greatly accelerated the pace of development of electric vehicle and demand for cobalt the battery cathode elements also soared.

Therefore, the ternary lithium battery to be the biggest dynamic pull "cobalt"."In 2016 alone, China more than 80% of the cobalt demand from batteries.

According to analysis, expects to cobalt demand will reach 200000 tons in 2025.

, according to the world's proven cobalt resource is 25 million tons, 7.2 million tons of reserves, reserves of highly concentrated in Congo (gold), Australia, and Cuba. The three countries accounted for 70% of the world's total reserves. And China's reserves is 80000 tons, only 1 of global reserves.1%.Our country nearly 90% cobalt raw material imports from the Congo.

Compared with the expected demand, it is highlight the scarcity of cobalt.

Recently, the world's largest battery raw material suppliers, chief executive of mining giant Swiss glencore Ivan he said: "if cobalt all fell to companies in China, so don't want to see electric vehicles made in Europe". Not bad, Ivan, the implication is that: the gerasenes who owns the cobalt, who mastered the fate of the electric car.

Dancing in the investment market cheer "cobalt", in the new energy automotive industry are competing fiercely.

After oil and rare earth, a duo "cobalt" war is fierce, many automakers and battery manufacturers also have layout, time of smoke.

BMW, Volkswagen, etc in the layout of new energy vehicles at the same time, also to meet the new energy automobile industry chain upstream end of cobalt resources, to ensure raw material supply.

Vw says is promote the establishment of a long-term supply contracts, so as to avoid material shortages. In early December, the public has invited talks to the headquarters of the Wolf fort cobalt raw materials manufacturers.BMW is also held talks with cobalt battery suppliers of raw materials.

The trouble of the battery

For a long time, the development of new energy vehicles is subject to the range of the battery, security, and other important factors. In addition, the high cost of battery is a great trial to new energy vehicles.

"At the moment Power battery Investment in research and development and manufacturing are very high, the cost of photovoltaic cells may be more than half of the cost of the car."Love chi car a professional personage says, this is mainly because the new energy vehicles is still in the market cultivation period, production is not very big, and raw materials price is too high for the battery, led to share the cost of initial investment is very high.

The cobalt price higher impact on the battery price is very big. The professional calculate a bill. Now 1 KWH of ternary lithium batteries cost is 1200 Yuan, the cost of cobalt accounted for about 10%.

Although the price higher, but still is hard to find a rich "cobalt".

Cobalt of the country's largest supplier of huayou cobalt industry sales department staff, according to place an order now, and almost two months to take the arrival of the goods, and to make payment.

Green beauty, huayou cobalt industry, jinchuan group three accounted for half of the market Look from the supply, similar situation and huayou cobalt industry green beauty. The company also said that a people cargo is not big.

Therefore, when people exclaim in China's new energy vehicles "boom", also a voice said: dividend of China's new energy automobile market, raw materials, a large part of being abroad.

"Cobalt prices, is also related to foreign production party consciously enhance pricing."A securities analyst said: cobalt main producers abroad, pricing and the foreign producers.

Another equally of the personage inside course of study thinks, cobalt ore resources at present is still the oligarchs control, from the perspective of supply and demand, cobalt supply short-term actually not a gap, but the seller's market to shipments and pricing power in mine side.

As the world's largest producer of cobalt, a few days ago, the Congo (gold) parliament passed a draft new mining method, cobalt is classified as strategic metals and will be charged 5% of the royalty.

Not subject to "cobalt"

Although duo battle "cobalt", but some Chinese in the production of new energy makers said: does not need to worry too much.

Although the rise in prices of raw materials such as cobalt to Power battery manufacturers, but domestic power battery the presence of excess production capacity, the battery price is even slightly downward trend, so the vehicle manufacturer cobalt temporarily does not have the pressure from higher prices.

In addition, with the battery technology upgrade, and now many manufacturers have to reduce the amount of cobalt in order to reduce the production cost, "now the type 622 or 811 type three Yuan in reducing the proportion of cobalt."Love chi car this person said.

High cost, also reversed transmission power battery enterprises in improving battery energy density at the same time reduce the cost. The source said, "cobalt" as a rare metal, hard to avoid can appear in short supply. However, the development of the market is bound to find a balance, if technically relying too much on an unsustainable, so the technology won't last very long.

This, he says: for the value of scarce resources such as cobalt permanent see high is not rational, the diversification of energy has been the state advocates, many techniques have now may be the direction of the future.

Some institutions have consciously early abroad., "said a German study machine in order to reduce the risk and reduce the pressure of cobalt and lithium reserves, should be expanded the research activities in the field of battery materials of alternative technologies",

Toyota said last month, has found a way to make the electric car is cheaper and less affected by the cobalt 'lithium supply factors method.

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