Power battery industry development trend

On May 22-23, the "2018 First New Energy Vehicle and Power Battery (CIBF Shenzhen) International Exchange Conference" was held at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center. Kaizheng Fang, Director of the Power Battery Industry Development Research Office of China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd., delivered a speech at the theme forum of "Battery Industry Chain Investment Special - Breaking and Searching for Key Points in Battery Industry Chain Investment".

Kaizheng Fang, Director of Power Battery Industry Development Research Office, China Automotive Technology and Research Center Co., Ltd.:

I come from Power Battery Industry Research Center of China Automotive Technology and Research Center. I mainly introduce three parts today: first, strategic analysis; second, development research; third, trend discussion.

First, the global strategic situation: The 2017 G20 Summit was held in Hamburg. The 19 member states except the United States reached a basic consensus on the Paris Agreement to promote global energy conservation and emission reduction. They agreed to actively implement the provisions of the Paris Agreement in the country and implement global energy conservation row goal.

Many countries have launched plans to ban traditional fuel vehicles. Norway plans to start in 2025, the Netherlands and India plan to be in 2030, France and the United Kingdom plan to be in 2040, and the Netherlands plans to actively study the ban in Germany and other countries in 2030 fuel car plan.

Tsinghua University is researching on Beiqi New Energy Vehicles and found that it is driving 200,000 kilometers. Pure electric vehicles have obvious emission reduction effects. The carbon dioxide emission reduction is 10 tons. This is also the reason why the above-mentioned countries banned fuel vehicles to develop new energy vehicles.

At the enterprise level, major auto companies have also launched strategies. Volkswagen has released a strategic plan: by 2025, Volkswagen will launch 3 million pure electric vehicles every year.

Facing the transformation of the global automotive industry, the development opportunities of China's power battery industry have arrived. The dominant car companies have formed a strategic partnership. In the future, there may be a strong and strong situation. Other power battery companies still have great development opportunities. With the ability to seize the opportunity, the power battery industry can be better and stronger.

Second, our research situation: Global new energy vehicles have maintained rapid growth since 2010. China's electric vehicles accounted for the first place in the world since 2015. The growth of China's electric vehicles and new energy vehicles has also strengthened the determination of electric strategy transformation in other countries in the world. .

In 2014, it was called the first year of commercialization of electric vehicles. In 2017, China's new energy vehicles produced a total of 819,000 units, an increase of 58.7% compared with 2016 accounting for 2.8% of the national automobile market. It can be said that it is increasing year by year. The proportion of pure electric vehicles is higher than that of plug-in hybrid models. The country's macro policy orientation has prompted enterprises to give priority to the development of pure electric vehicles.

In terms of power batteries, the total power battery capacity in 2017 reached 37.4GWh, a year-on-year increase of 33.1%. Previously, lithium iron phosphate has always occupied a high share, and ternary materials have grown rapidly. In 2016, lithium iron phosphate batteries reached the highest value and began to decline in 2017.

The top ten power battery companies together accounted for 74% of the market share. From the perspective of manufacturers, the pattern is being restructured. Some emerging companies are entering the top ten, and established companies are somewhat silent.

From the analysis of the proportion of different types of power batteries in passenger cars, it can be seen that the 2017 ternary battery accounts for 80%. Due to the requirements for the cruising range of electric vehicles, lithium iron phosphate will gradually withdraw from the new energy passenger vehicle market. In the passenger car field, the ternary battery has a certain usage in 2015, accounting for about 15% of the total. With the NDRC's cautious use of the ternary battery and the implementation of the safety conditions of the electric bus, the ternary battery will gradually withdraw from the passenger car field. In the market, the main power batteries will be lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate and lithium titanate.

In the field of special vehicles, ternary batteries also account for a large proportion. In terms of the technical route of enterprises, Ningde and NFP have developed NCM and LFP. BYD is mainly based on LFP and has made efforts to NCM in the past two years. NCM represents companies such as BAK Battery and Funeng Technology, and LFP represents Walter and Guoxuan Hi-Tech.

Judging from the number of enterprises, we analyzed a development feature in 2017 when we were working on the Blue Book of power batteries. The number of enterprises has gradually decreased and the industry construction has grown rapidly. China's future power battery demand is actually very large, but the capacity expansion speed is very fast. For example, in 2016, the total matching amount for the whole year is 280.1GWh, and the production capacity in 2017 exceeded 200GWh or more. It is 37.4GWh. In terms of the number of enterprises, the total number of enterprises reached the highest value in 2015, with 240 companies. In 2016, it dropped to 140. In 2017, there were less than 100 domestic power battery supporting companies.

The macro-guided targets are clear and the energy density is significantly improved. The new subsidy program released from the end of 2016 and the subsidy program issued in 2018 have all required the energy density of new energy vehicles. In 2018, the highest requirement is 120Wh/Kg. The bus reached 160Wh/Kg.

In 2017, the overall pure electric vehicle field, the power battery energy density distribution statistics, 28% of pure electric passenger cars equipped with battery energy density of 120Wh / Kg, 70% of the model's energy density of 90 to 120Wh / Kg In the field of pure electric buses, 69% of the models has a power battery density of 115Wh/Kg. From the overall situation, the level of improvement has obvious effects.

We analyzed the development trend of the subsidy policy. In 2009, the subsidy policy was launched. In 2010, the transition from the public sector to the private purchase sector was completed. From 2013 to 2015, the subsidy system was gradually improved. The subsidies at the consumer end clearly defined the exit rules and introduced new energy recommended car catalog. In 2016, the subsidies were adjusted, cracked down on fraudulent compensation, introduced operational mileage requirements, and increased technical threshold requirements, as well as adjustment of subsidy standards and subsidies. In 2018, the slopes were degraded in advance, and the extent of the decline was increased. Subsidies were subdivided. Standards encourage the development of quality products. In the future, the trend of subsidy withdrawal will turn the industry development into market-driven.

Third, the discussion of trends: This is our forecast of the scale of the annual production and sales of China's auto industry and the forecast of new energy vehicles. Based on the development process of China's urbanization, the number of cars and the growth saturation of the car are relatively optimistic. Comrade Miao Wei said in an interview with the two sessions that it is optimistic that China's new energy vehicles will reach 3 million in 2020. By 2025, based on trend forecasts, new energy vehicles may account for 25% of the total, and production may reach 9 million. In 2030, the proportion is further increased, with a 50% ratio and an annual output of 20 million units.

After the implementation of the double point policy in 2020, the new energy vehicle market will be driven by policy and market bipolar drive. After 2025, it will be market-driven and supplemented by policy, reaching the target of 50% in 2020. The development orientation of the post-subsidy era, dual-core power + dual-core protection, policy-driven + market-driven, two-wheeled guarantee and production guarantee + sales guarantee. In terms of sales guarantee, after the subsidy is withdrawn, the promotion of the production supply side will become the back-end subsidy and the consumption side of the market. The market can formulate multiple fiscal and taxation policies and rely on the proprietary number plate to formulate preferential policies for new energy vehicles in the transportation system. Guide local governments to implement new energy policy subsidy policies.

Future consumers' expectations for new energy vehicles, new energy vehicles are not only the terminal for mobile travel, but also the carrier terminal for comprehensive information functions in the future. Through the survey of consumers, more than 70% of consumers believe that they hope to maintain a mileage of 350 more than a kilometer.

At present, the excellent electric vehicle products in the market can reach 400 kilometers, such as Tengshi, Emgrand and E6. Considering the heavy use situation and other situational changes, the 300km cruising range is no problem. Such technological product enhancement has also laid a very important foundation for opening the market in the future and promoting the overall market.

The production of power batteries in the future is the trend of intelligent manufacturing. Large-scale, high-quality, automated and intelligent are the inevitable aspects of the future development of power battery manufacturing. At present, China's power battery manufacturing from the beginning of the experience of intelligent, to the realization of the full automation, the future will be the development of intelligent manufacturing, welcome everyone to participate, my share ends here, thank you.

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