Market analysis of electric logistics vehicle and supporting battery

Logistics distribution is a kind of operation mode of modern circulation industry, and the most common one is logistics business. Logistics refers to the process of goods flowing from the place of supply to the entity of the place of receipt. Distribution refers to the logistics activities in which goods are selected, processed, packaged, divided and distributed within an economic and reasonable area and delivered to the designated place on time.

Logistics distribution can be divided into intercity distribution, urban distribution and rural distribution. According to the property of goods, it can be divided into production logistics and circulation logistics.

The specific types and characteristics of commercial vehicles used in logistics and distribution are as follows: 1) trucks are divided into four categories, with micro card (less than 1). 8 tons), light truck (1. 8-6 tons), medium truck (6-14 tons), heavy truck (above 14 tons). 2) bus is divided into four categories, micro passenger (less than or equal to 3. 5 meters), light passenger (3. 5-7 meters), medium (7-10 meters), large (over 10 meters). Can be applied to logistics distribution: four categories of trucks can be, passenger cars in the light and micro passenger.

According to statistics from the website of energy conservation and new energy vehicles, in 2015, with the improvement of the supply side and the stimulation of subsidies, the annual output of pure electric special purpose vehicles increased explosively, reaching 4. 950,000, of which the production of pure electric logistics vehicles reached 4. 630,000, or 94%.

Electric logistics vehicle (ev) is a mobile equipment for transporting and storing material units powered by on-board power. Also known as electric vehicle logistics vehicles, electric logistics transport vehicles, electric goods turnover vehicles.

Since 2008, when the government focused on supporting the new energy vehicle industry, the domestic electric logistics vehicle industry started its journey. On May 6, 2008, the pure electric light truck developed by dongfeng motor was put into trial operation in wuhan, becoming the first pure electric light truck in China.

At present domestic mainstream electric car for 4-6 m vehicles, more targets for traditional miniature, light trucks, for the field of market demand is expected to maintain the overall smooth, according to the traditional van (miniature, light), annual sales of 2 million vehicles, logistics to 2020 electric car production and sales accounted for 20%, the electric car logistics annual sales are expected to reach 400000 units, in the next five years the domestic electric car production logistics of compound annual growth is expected to exceed 50%, the incremental scale of millions of vehicles, with an average of 200000 yuan per meter, corresponding to the direct market size exceeds 200 billion yuan.

According to market research, at present, the average daily mileage of urban logistics vehicles is up to 150 kilometers, and the average fuel consumption is 8 liters per 100 kilometers. 2) volumetric load; 3) dynamic performance; 4) vehicle reliability; 5) charging convenience; 6) use cost. Enterprises tend to choose electric logistics vehicles that can "load and run", with a range of 200km, a quick charging time of half an hour, and a purchase price of less than 200,000 yuan.

At present, the mainstream electric logistics vehicle in the market has a range of more than 200km and a load of about 1 ton. With the continuous improvement of battery performance, the replacement range of electric logistics vehicle is expected to be further expanded. In terms of economy, many provinces and cities have introduced the electric car logistics subsidies, subsidies amplitude with the central flat, under the double subsidy of the central and local, electric car logistics cost has been with traditional fuel cars approach, considering the use and maintenance costs significantly reduced, electric car logistics comprehensive cost advantage is gradually reveal.

It is predicted that the market size of electric logistics vehicles will reach 58.9 billion yuan in 2020, and the annual compound growth rate of revenue will reach 32%. In 2020, the output of electric motor control will reach 36. 90,000 sets, the market size reached 5.1 billion yuan, the annual compound growth rate of income 27%. Demand for batteries will reach 17 percent by 2020. 5Gwh, the market size reached 24.5 billion yuan, the compound growth rate of revenue will reach 32%.

Battery market

In 2015, ternary materials accounted for the largest proportion of power batteries used in new energy special vehicles (most of which are logistics vehicles). In addition, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese acid and lead-acid batteries were in order.

Sanyuan power battery was the largest battery category used in electric logistics vehicles in 2015. From the perspective of supply enterprises, lishen, bick and foster (smart energy subsidiary) occupy the top three in terms of shipments.

lithium iron phosphate market watma, avic lithium electricity, national hin high-tech were ranked in the top three.

Lithium manganate battery has the advantages of good safety, but its low energy density makes it has no competitive advantage. In 2015, suzhou xingheng was the only one in the electric logistics vehicle market to provide lithium manganate battery products.

Lead-acid batteries are not widely used in electric logistics vehicles. Lead-acid batteries have a short life, low energy density and weak competitiveness.

Power battery supporting PACK, BMS industry

In 2015, there were 15 battery entrepreneurs, 6 automobile enterprises and 3 professional PACK factories among the top 24 enterprises in the market supply of battery system integration (PACK) for electric logistics vehicles, and the supply quantity was significantly less than that of battery enterprises. From the perspective of market pattern, the market of battery PACK is relatively dispersed, with the top ten enterprises accounting for only 51% of the total market share, which is consistent with the overall pattern of the power battery market. It is expected that the market will rapidly converge to the leading enterprises in the future. Among them, foster's market share was 11%, followed by watmar's market share of 10%.

In terms of the total supply, the battery factory supplies 80% of the logistics vehicle PACK, and they mainly supply the vehicle enterprises with the integrated supply mode of battery cell +PACK. However, it should not be neglected that the car manufacturers also provide 15% battery PACK.

Unlike PACK, where battery and vehicle manufacturers are heavily involved, professional BMS manufacturers occupy a large market share in the battery management system (BMS) market. Among them, ligao high-tech energy market accounted for 17%, followed by hang sheng electronics market accounted for 11%.

From the perspective of market supply structure, BMS factory provides 56% of logistics vehicle BMS, followed by battery factory, and independent supply BMS ranks the third. Looking ahead to the future BMS market, professional third-party BMS enterprises will still have prominent competitive advantages, but strong automobile enterprises may also gradually increase the layout of BMS business.

Motor market

The electric motor control market of electric logistics vehicle is more concentrated than the battery market. Drive motor market, the top five enterprises market share reached 50. 9%. From the perspective of market participants, it mainly includes motor enterprises, motor and electronic control integrated supply enterprises, automobile enterprises and other auto parts suppliers.

From the perspective of market structure, the driving motor of logistics vehicle is mainly provided by integrated motor and electronic control manufacturers and professional electric machine manufacturers, while the automobile enterprises also account for a high proportion of supply.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.